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  • Part one.

  • I want to talk about how the trend is your friend.

  • All right.

  • And you can see this smiley face.

  • Uh arrow here As this uh this trader has gone long and is smiling all right now.

  • He's smiling.

  • A lot of your newbies out there are already selling because you think maybe you found the top of the market out of your genius.

  • Okay.

  • But you haven't.

  • So let's talk about this concept of the trend.

  • Is your friend.

  • Now when I got to Wall Street in 1993 I was 22 years old.

  • I was green as they come.

  • I was greener than bud fox.

  • Okay.

  • I had a really cheap suit that everybody would make fun of.

  • When I got there.

  • I lived in the east village in new york city because I had no money.

  • I took the N.

  • R.

  • Subway line down from East 10th street or from Astor Place down to the World Trade Center.

  • I would walk out the World Trade Center this before it, before it got bombed and blasted And I would look up and look at the top of the World Trade Center was 110 stories tall.

  • As I walked across the street to bankers trust plaza and I thought, Oh my gosh, I'm living the dream.

  • I took the elevator up to the 33rd floor of bankers trust Plaza and there was this badass trading floor, 300 basically alpha males on this floor, all trying to intimidate each other.

  • There were women there too who are a gangster as well, all trying to intimidate each other because there was so much money on the line and I got sat in there and I got sat into a chair and on my first day I kid you not.

  • They gave me two phones, You had two black phones and I had a whole board in front of me with 100 different buttons.

  • All the direct lines.

  • This one goes to the Chicago board of trade.

  • This one goes to Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

  • This one goes to an inter dealer broker called Prebon.

  • This one goes to an inter dealer broker called uh I'll think of the names.

  • I remember I forgot the euro brokers and they said it's a whole board.

  • If you look at gecko and then we Wall street, he's got one of those boards on his desk and you jam those things and you get direct lines to people.

  • I had squawk box is shouting out prices and all these things government bonds and they said trade and I was like, I don't know how to trade.

  • And they and so some of the guys on the floor started schooling me and they gave me books like market wizards and they said brian, the trend is your friend.

  • And they literally slapped me in the head.

  • Sometimes they would bang my, my hands with phones when I screw up.

  • So like, you know, some of your kids out there don't know what it's like to work in a high pressure environment.

  • I mean they were all over me and when I screwed up, they let me know about it, they made fun of us, but they taught me how to trade.

  • And one of the first things I learned is the trend is your friend.

  • And it simply means this an object in motion stays in motion.

  • If you see a market trending, there's a good chance that the trend will continue.

  • But an amateur always thinks that they are the contrarian.

  • They always think they see something someone else doesn't and they get locked in their mind.

  • And it's basically a cognitive bias, it's a human cognitive bias to think that, you know, something someone else doesn't.

  • And there's a whole graveyard of traders, uh that's full of ones that thought they were smarter than the market and there and you're not you're not smarter than the market.

  • And literally there were some of the most seasoned gangster traders on the floor bankers trust and they would have all of these truisms printed out and paste it on the bottom of their green screen because that's all we have are green screens.

  • And I would say the trend is your friend, all these other truisms which I'll share with you over the coming weeks.

  • And so again, you need to understand that riding the trend is one of the smartest things that you'll ever do.

  • So try to resist the temptation to call the bottoms and call the tops of the market because you're not going to be able to do it, and most of the time you're going to take a bath and you're gonna lose money.

Part one.

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B1 trend trade market trade center floor cognitive

You Are Not Smarter Than The Market ? ? It’s a human cognitive bias - Brian Rose

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    林宜悉 posted on 2021/06/23
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