two main types diesel powered conventional submarines and

submarines that run on nuclear power. The US Navy's underwater

ambitions since the 1950s have been driven by nuclear a nuclear

powered submarine can stay out to sea for months and has almost

unlimited range. Combined with nuclear weapons. This makes the

Navy's so called Boomer sub. Some of the deadliest boats in

the history of humankind

Navy specifically has a very important part of this job its

ballistic missile submarines carry a substantial portion of

the US nuclear warheads. But even these billion dollar boats

have a set lifespan

Los Angeles class attack submarines and Ohio class

ballistic missile and cruise missile boats are getting older

and they need to be replaced. Our friends in Indonesia have

suffered a terrible tragedy in the last few weeks. With an old

submarine you know, we don't know what happened yet. But the

older a ship or submarine is, the more likely it is to suffer

an accident at sea. The Navy has ambitious goals for the future

of the fleet. But some problems could

stand in the way now the state of Navy shipyard infrastructure

is not great. On the way out the door the Trump administration

said over 400 ships in the battle force fleet plus 130 or

so unmanned vessels so a total fleet size of over 500 ships.

So how can the US Navy field the submarine fleet of the future

building ships is hard in crafting a vessel for wars even

harder. Boats like those in the Virginia class, which is an

attack submarine can cost $3.4 billion and take seven years to

build. These views are my own. Certainly I don't represent the

Department of Defense or the US Navy in any capacity. submarines

are really right at the center of Fleet design, partly because

that's an area where the US still considers itself to have

kind of an uncontested advantage. And since the 1950s,

the Navy has relied on companies such as General Dynamics

electric boat and Huntington Ingalls industries to produce

these nuclear powered underwater weapons of war. A Navy is a long

term project, and it requires some some real kind of visionary

leadership to ensure that the fleet remains relevant in the

capabilities that it has, and that we continue to replace

ships as they get older. Which is why the US Navy has what is

known as a 30 year plan. To build these ships, the US Navy

needs shipyards operating at full strength.

Right now the Navy is go undergoing a 20 year plan that

costs $21 billion to upgrade its infrastructure. They've been

underfunded for the past couple of decades as have been other

priorities. Right now we're hitting a point where there are

very significant maintenance delays. The US Navy currently

has 68 submarines in service

and the Navy wants to start shipbuilding on two to three

Virginia class subs per year in roughly one Columbia class per

year until around 2035. The Columbia class is a ballistic

missile submarine capable of launching nuclear weapons 1000s

of miles. It's a crucial part of American nuclear policy. The

Navy estimates the total cost $109.8 billion for 12 boats, but

experts at the US Government Accountability Office remain

concerned about the ability of the US to build these boats with

current shipyards and suppliers how large the Navy can become

and how many submarines that can build are all controlled by the

defense budget passed in Congress. There is there is a

very real conversation that has to take place about where our

budget is prioritized. This roughly 1/3 mix going to the Air

Force the army in the in the Navy doesn't really suit our

strategic reality

from fiscal year 2015 to 2019. Though shipyards completed 75%

of maintenance periods for submarines and aircraft carriers

too late, you know over time, and that accounted for over 7000

days of maintenance delay. So the Navy is trying to fix that

they've made some progress in the last two years, but there's

still a lot of work to be done. If the Navy messes up a 30 year

plan the consequences could be devastating.

China's shipbuilding capabilities have skyrocketed in

the last two decades, Chinese shipyards have been churning out

commercial ships and military vessels at a rapid pace. This

has left the US Navy with a dilemma on how to allocate

precious tax dollars to keep up. China operates a mix of nuclear

subs and conventional subs, but its Navy also operates mainly

close to its own shores. That means the range of Chinese

submarines is less of an issue.

Our nuclear strategy is different, it's specific, and to

sustain it we need a triad. The

nuclear triad refers to the three main ways the US could

deploy nuclear weapons by land

by air and by sea. The Navy specifically has a very

important part of this job its ballistic missile submarines

carry a substantial portion of the US nuclear warheads. And it

is the most survivable leg of the nuclear triad. So once a

nuclear submarine is out to sea, it's sailing in the middle of

the Atlantic or the Pacific oceans, it's nearly impossible

for an adversary to detect that.

This is why replacing existing Ohio class submarines armed with

ballistic missiles is such a big concern within the US Navy.

So the Columbia class submarine is the ballistic missile

submarine. The goal is a 2028 delivery to the Navy and early

2030s. You'll start seeing them you know, subbing in for the

Ohio class, the Ohio class started the false one was

delivered in 1984. And those have a 42 year lifespan so we're

starting to hit the end of of their lifespans. And the

Columbia game the Columbia class out there, as I mentioned, is a

Navy's number one priority. In early 2021. The US Government

Accountability Office expressed concerns that the new Columbia

class could take longer than expected to build and also cost

more than initially expected. That could put the Navy in a

very tough spot.

A conventional submarine is one that isn't powered by nuclear

fuel. The majority of submarines in the world fall into this

category. Conventional subs are cheaper and don't carry the risk

of a nuclear accident. And perhaps more importantly,

they're quieter than nuclear subs. These stealthy

conventional submarines known as SS Ks have embarrassed the US

Navy before a Swedish submarine part of the Gotland class became

infamous for its ability to quietly dodge US Navy anti

submarine forces in 2005. During the joint naval exercise, a

Swedish Navy boat was able to skirt past escort ships and

achieve a simulated killing a US nuclear powered aircraft

carrier. So modern SS Ks are very, very quiet. And that's an

incredible advantage that's really kind of been one of the

game changers in in recent decades is the rise of these

very, very stealthy SS Ks for a submarine fleet that that does

operate closer to home. That's great, you know, you're getting

very similar bang for the buck, but it just stays closer to

home. That's the biggest downside to conventional

submarines. They can't stray as far from shore as the nuclear

counterparts and they can't stay out to sea for as long. But

uncrewed submarines, also known as unmanned underwater vehicles,

or uuvs, could be able to help solve this problem.

unmanned underwater vehicles uuvs. So these are basically

drones that can either travel on the surface or underwater for

long durations.

Russia has already been working on an uncrewed nuclear powered

submarine that is also potentially armed with nuclear

weapons.

This submarine drone was one of several exotic nuclear weapon

systems that President Putin announced a few years back. The

motivation for these is kind

of puzzling. The US Navy hasn't invested in this kind of risky

technology yet, but other types of uncrewed submersibles could

be part of the future fleet. For now, nuclear powered attack

submarines, ballistic missile submarines and cruise missile

submarines will continue to be the primary force that the Navy

uses to project underwater power around the world.

As we talk about the growth of the Navy moving forward that is

large that is largely fueled by more submarines. You know,

Congress is concerned about the length of the Navy's plan to

revitalize its public shipyards. And, you know, to to beat that,

you know, recently proposed bill led by Senator wicker $25

billion. 21 of which would fund this AI up 4 billion which would

go to the private shipyards. So the idea being that they could

help the Navy speed that

up how the defense budget shakes out and Congress could mean the

difference between building one Virginia class submarine per

year or three and some politicians have pushed for

fewer ballistic missile submarines as part of a hard

look at the size of the US nuclear deterrent. In a request

for comment in reference to a Congressional Budget Office

appraisal, the Navy said that quote, focusing on improving

productive capacity by initiatives to increase on time

delivery and operational availability while reducing

maintenance costs,

the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review highlighted this idea of hedging

against an uncertain future. our adversaries are increasing their

capabilities all the time, the United States is increasing its

capabilities all the time, technology can rapidly change.

So we need to build a nuclear force that the designer nuclear

force to last for decades, people from the army Are you

know, soldiers feeling like I'm trying to take their budget away

from my service, you know, but it is it is really a very,

it's a bigger issue. It's not a competition. It's not a rivalry.

It's a recognition that we we need those ships to be able to

execute the national strategy the United States as currently

spelled out