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  • China has threatened to invade Taiwan.

  • Taiwan has been preparing.

  • But is Taiwan ready?

  • Welcome to China Uncensored. I'm Chris Chappell.

  • This episode has been sponsored  by Surfsharkbecause you should  

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  • Taiwan. A thriving democracy  of 24 million people

  • Home of the Freedom Pineapple

  • And the hottest flashpoint of 2021! 

  • For years, experts have called  Taiwan the likeliest flash point  

  • that would trigger world war 3. 

  • That's because of the Chinese Communist  Party's plan for Taiwanunification”.  

  • Which is just a nicer way of saying invasion

  • But a Chinese Communist takeover of Taiwan  would also endanger the rest of the world.  

  • Taiwan is part of the first island chain in the  Pacific, along with Japan and the Philippines.

  • The Chinese Communist Party is already claiming  the bottom part of the first island chain,  

  • with their nine-dash line in the South China Sea.

  • If they got Taiwan, too, that would  consolidate their power over much of  

  • Asia. And it would also be a launching point  for them to threaten the rest of the Pacific.

  • Including US allies like Japan, the Philippinesand Australia. And US territories like Guam.

  • Even Hawaii.

  • That's a big reason why the  Pentagon should focus on Taiwan

  • But the US doesn't have an official defense  treaty with Taiwan. That means if the Chinese  

  • Communist Party actually invaded Taiwan, the  US isn't required by law to defend Taiwan

  • That doesn't mean the US wouldn't defend  Taiwan, it just means it's not guaranteed

  • However, the US is required by lawto provide  Taiwan with arms of a defensive character.”

  • Enough toenable Taiwan to maintain  a sufficient self-defense capability.”

  • In 2020 alone, US arms sales to  Taiwan totaled 5 billion dollars

  • Of course, the Chinese Communist Party  has warned the Biden administration  

  • to stop doing this. Or doing  anything to support Taiwan

  • But other than throwing hissy fits at the US,  

  • the Chinese Communist Party doesn't have a lot  of options for how it can take over Taiwan.

  • It could move decisively to a full-scale  invasion to raise the cost of US intervention.

  • It's possible that the Biden  administration would then decide  

  • it's not worth sending US  troops to defend Taiwan

  • This is a risky move, thoughWe've talked before about how  

  • difficult it would be to launch  a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

  • The Chinese regime could also  adopt a coercive strategy  

  • that gradually increases military pressure  to bend Taipei to China's demands.

  • This idea of gradual escalation is what  many people call gray zone warfare.

  • We did an episode about how the  Chinese regime is using gray  

  • zone warfare against Taiwan by constantly  sending warplanes into Taiwan's airspace.

  • This can ensure that China always maintains the  initiative, keeping Taiwan on edge constantly,  

  • without going into full-scale conflict.   

  • Thiswar of attritionis  already wearing down Taiwan  

  • politically, militarily, and psychologically.

  • The Chinese Communist Party is trying to  make their aggression and militarization  

  • the norm, “something that is not worthy of  any sort of response from other nations.”

  • So if other countries won't respond to  the Chinese Communist Party's actions,  

  • is Taiwan's military prepared  for a Chinese invasion?

  • I'll get to that after the break.

  • Welcome back.

  • So is Taiwan's military prepared for an invasion

  • Taiwan has its eyes on increasing  its conventional weapon capabilities,  

  • but many experts say that Taiwan  should stop spending its money on them.

  • That's because those systems are  expensive and not necessarily useful  

  • for the type of warfare that Taiwan  would face from the Communist Party.

  • This is why, a couple of years  ago, former Taiwanese Admiral  

  • Lee Hsi-ming proposed what's called the  Overall Defense Concept, or ODC for short.

  • The ODC is Taiwan's current strategy for dealing  

  • with a potential Chinese invasion in  a resource-constrained environment.”

  • Instead of a traditional war of attrition, the ODC  

  • redefines winning war against China  asfoiling the People's Liberation  

  • Army's mission of successfully invading and  exerting political control over Taiwan.”

  • Admiral Lee says Taiwan should prepare to absorb  

  • missile and air strikes and  preserve the ability to strike back.

  • The ability to strike back would rely  on an abundance of small, cheap weapons  

  • like mobile anti-ship missilesportable anti-aircraft missiles,  

  • advanced sea mines and fast missile boats.

  • What's great about these weapons is that they  can be camouflaged and dispersed in urban,  

  • coastal, jungle and mountain areas.

  • This makes it hard for the  PLA to search and destroy.

  • The ODC is an approach that Taiwanese  President Tsai Ing-wen supports.

  • There are, however, some bureaucratic challenges  that Taiwan faces in implementing the ODC.

  • Efforts at defense reform face obstacles  from institutional opposition from senior  

  • officers and a lack of time.”

  • On top of that, there's also the  issue of Taiwan's military readiness.

  • Taiwan is suffering a serious and  worsening decay in the readiness  

  • and training of its troopsparticularly its army units.”

  • Much of it is because Taiwan's  mandatory military service  

  • has dramatically decreased  from one year to four months.

  • But even within those four months,  

  • some army conscripts say that they only fire 30  to 40 rounds with their rifles. That's not a lot.

  • One army conscript said that he wasn't even  taught how to clear his rifle if it jammed.

  • Not even a fraction of conscripts  

  • get the chance to practice shooting  anti-tank missiles and grenade launchers.

  • So, they miss all the fun parts.

  • This is a problem because a military is  only as good as its soldiers. What good  

  • is buying weapons if your soldiers  aren't trained to use them properly?

  • The Tsai administration is trying to correct  these issues with a mobilization office.

  • Its goal is to better strengthen  and coordinate Taiwan's reserve  

  • forces so that reserve soldiers play a greater  role and support active-duty service members.

  • The administration will also  extend post-service training  

  • for reservists from 8 years to 15 years in 2022.

  • But are these reforms enough?

  • I'll get to that after the break.

  • Welcome back.

  • Taiwan's a democracy, and as a democracyyou don't want to upset peopleespecially  

  • young voterswith something like  mandatory military conscription.

  • But you know what's easy to do? Rely  on America. But like I said earlier in  

  • this episode, there's no guarantee  that America will come through

  • Although if it doesn't, that would be a huge blow  to America's standing in the world, not to mention  

  • our ability to counter the Chinese Communist  Party. But that's a whole nother episode

  • The biggest problem for Taiwan, is that  relying on the US might be making Taiwan soft.

  • Retired US Marine Corp colonel Grant Newsham says  that Taiwan's military has been whittled down  

  • because it is acting as if defending the  country is someone else's responsibility.

  • There is also a concern  

  • the Taiwanese might not have the will to  defend against and resist the mainland.

  • This is a problem because, “as the president  of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council puts it,  

  • the problem of Taiwan's defense comes down to  'the space between how young Taiwan citizens  

  • feel about the island's sovereignty and  what they're prepared to do about it.'”

  • So how do they feel?

  • Polls show mixed messages. According to one  poll, “If war were to break out between Taiwan  

  • and China, 40.9 percent of those surveyed said  that they are willing to fight or would not  

  • object to their family's participationwhile 49.1 percent said the opposite.”

  • So the majority of Taiwanese are not willing  to fight against the Chinese regime

  • But another poll shows that 96 percent of 18  and 19-year-olds would be willing to fight.

  • Although that percentage dropped to 26 percent  

  • for people in their 20s. The age that would  likely be sent first to the front lines

  • But public sentiment in Taiwan is likely  to change as the Chinese Communist Party  

  • gets more aggressive. Hong Kong has already  been a huge wake-up call to many Taiwanese

  • When faced with an existential  crisis, a smaller force like Taiwan  

  • can beat a much larger foe like  China if it has enough resolve.

  • And Taiwan's government is proactively  trying to solve their military weaknesses.  

  • They just need enough time

  • So let's hope that this retired Japanese general  is wrong and China doesn't invade Taiwan by 2025.

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  • Once again, I'm Chris Chappell. See you next time.

China has threatened to invade Taiwan.

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Is Taiwan's Military Prepared for a Chinese Invasion?

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    zijun su posted on 2021/05/05
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