That is, according to consultancy Bain.

It predicts sales off expensive handbags and the like will dropped 23% this year to $258 billion.

That is actually at the better end of the forecast range it gave in the spring.

Back then, it said, sales might drop much as 35%.

But the outlook could yet get worse again with fresh lockdowns in Europe.

Among factors that might further sap sales, China is the one bright spot.

Sales on the mainland are seen growing by 45% at current exchange rates, to about $52 billion.

Demand there has surged since the country emerged from lockdowns in the spring.

Bane says revenues for the likes of Louis Vuitton and Prada should partially recover in 2021 but it predicts that it could be 2022 or even later before luxury sales recover to pre crisis levels.

The consultants say this year's events have also accelerated other trends.