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  • On November 21st, 2013, Ukraine erupted in civil  unrest. The massive demonstrations were sparked  

  • by the decision of Ukraine's then-PresidentViktor Yanukovych, to discard an agreement  

  • with the European Union which would have seen  Ukraine move towards eventually joining the EU.  

  • Instead, President Yanukovych announced that  he would seek closer ties with Russia, to the  

  • surprise of no one as he was already consideredRussian puppet. What nobody expected was how the  

  • Ukrainian people would react to Yanukovych trying  to tie their future to Russia instead of Europe.

  • The protests soon turned violent, with the demand  that the president and his entire cabinet step  

  • down. Named one of the most corrupt governments  in the world by Transparency International,  

  • President Yanukovych had a long history of  violence against his citizens and taking  

  • bribes- specially from Russian backed sourcesEventually, President Yanukovych was forced to  

  • flee the country, and the rebellion quickly  installed a pro-European president in power.

  • However, that's when Ukraine's  troubles would really start.  

  • Finally believing themselves to be  free of Russian influence, Ukraine  

  • instead found itself fighting off a secession  movement in the regions of Donbas and Crimea,  

  • fueled by Russian separatists. When Ukranian  troops moved to quell the rebellion, they  

  • were surprised to find themselves in combat with  Russian tanks, infantry, and even special forces.

  • For its part, Russia denied any involvementdespite the documenting of unmarked Russian  

  • military vehicles carrying dead Russian soldiers  back to Russia from Ukraine. President Putin  

  • instead claimed that any Russians fighting in  Ukraine were doing so of their own free will,  

  • and that the government had no official role  in the fighting there. Even more evidence,  

  • including social media posts  from Russian soldiers themselves,  

  • dispelled any notion that Putin  hadn't sent troops into Ukraine.

  • Outmatched by Russian firepower, Ukraine's  troops suffered a catastrophic defeat and were  

  • forced back, eventually all but ceding control  of the disputed regions to pro-Russian forces. In  

  • response, the world slammed Russia with crippling  economic sanctions, and US President Barack Obama  

  • ordered additional US forces to Europe in  order to warn Putin from further aggression.

  • Since Putin's original invasion of Crimea howeverthings have changed dramatically in the world.  

  • Russia is still under punishing economic  sanctions, yet it's Russia's common people who are  

  • suffering the effects, not Putin or his oligarch  friends. Willing to have his people shoulder the  

  • economic pain he himself is unaffected by, Putin  has thus far not been deterred by sanctions.

  • Now the question on everyone's mind is, will  Putin decide to fully invade Ukraine or not?

  • Perhaps nobody is more afraid of  this than Ukrainians themselves,  

  • especially after Putin announced that he  would grant expedited Russian citizenship  

  • to the inhabitants of Crimea. This is but one  in several carefully planned moves by Putin to  

  • legitimize Russia's claim to the region, as  once it is full of legal Russian residents,  

  • he'll have a better argument for supporting  his currently illegal annexation of the  

  • Crimean peninsula- which is unrecognized  by both Ukraine and the rest of the world.

  • Even more worrying however is a recent  documentary released in Russia this summer  

  • where Putin himself makes the claim that several  eastern European nations illegally took territory  

  • with them that belonged to native Russia after the  breakup of the Soviet Union. To anyone living east  

  • of Germany, Putin's statement is tantamount to  threatening the invasion of not just the Ukraine,  

  • but any Russian neighbor. To a student  of history, the current Russia-Ukraine  

  • situation sounds suspiciously a lot like the  pre-World War II Germany- Sudetenland debacle  

  • that all but officially signaled  the start of the second World War.

  • Would Russia really go for it and invade however?

  • Much like during Hitler's time, the west is  showing some level of appeasement towards Putin's  

  • claims on eastern Europe- only this time it's  the United States who's doing the appeasement.  

  • Despite claims of being tough on Russia, US  President Donald Trump has repeatedly ignored  

  • Russian actions in Ukraine, and shown little to  no interest in how the Ukrainian crisis plays out.  

  • With his gifting of Syria to Russia by  ordering the pull out of US personnel,  

  • now the world is wondering if President Trump  would dare oppose Putin on the world stage.

  • If Russia wanted to use military force  in Ukraine and annex the entire nation,  

  • there is little that Europe could do to stop it  on their own. Without American military power,  

  • the EU simply couldn't field a large enough  armed response to stop the Russian incursion,  

  • let alone reverse it. While Europe has  for decades known that the trans-Atlantic  

  • alliance with the US was strong and  that America could be relied upon,  

  • that relationship has dramatically weakened  over the last four years under President Trump,  

  • leaving many to wonder if the US would  respond at all to a Russian invasion.

  • To complicate matters even more, a recent  revelation led to the discovery that President  

  • Trump was aware of Russian bounties paid out  by its government to insurgents who killed US  

  • troops, yet the information did not stop him  from campaigning for Russia to rejoin the G-8  

  • after it was kicked out due to its invasion  of Crimea. Despite the discovery by the CIA  

  • of bounties as high as $100,000  for each dead American soldier  

  • paid out by Russia's GRU, President  Trump's pro-Russia campaigning signals  

  • that the US will almost certainly not  interfere with a Ukrainian invasion.

  • But would Russia really do it?

  • With the EU unable to stop Russia militarily, the  most they could do is impose even more sanctions-  

  • and yet Russia is already weathering pretty severe  sanctions, so the economic impact at this point  

  • would probably not be enough to stop Putin if  he really wanted to invade. Further adding to  

  • the risk of invasion is the fact that Putin  himself is facing a variety of domestic troubles,  

  • ranging from a poor economy to civil  unrest as Putin sets himself up to  

  • remain in power indefinitely. A 'rally around  the flag' event such as a Ukrainian invasion  

  • might be seen to Putin as a solution- even  if temporary- to his domestic troubles.

  • Opposition in Ukraine would be stiff howeverthanks to the thousands of anti-tank weapons  

  • sold to Ukraine by the US. With little to no  utility in fighting against the rebels in Crimea,  

  • who don't operate tanks, these weapons are  very clearly meant to take on Russian tanks  

  • and armored vehicles. This would makeUkrainian invasion a costly one for Russia,  

  • no doubt factoring into  Putin's plans for the region.

  • Ultimately Russia could invade Ukraine  successfully and reestablish some of  

  • the former Soviet Union glory that Putin so  desperately wants to recreate, but its events  

  • in America that will likely dictate if that  happens or not more than events in Europe. With  

  • President Trump showing no interest in countering  any Russian moves around the world, if reelected  

  • it's likely that Putin will see this as a green  light to do as he wishes in Ukraine and elsewhere.  

  • As Ukraine is not a NATO member, the best it could  hope for would be an armed response from European  

  • forces- but without US forces Europe is simply not  strong enough on its own to stand up to Russia.

  • Now check out Can Russia Invade Europeor watch this other video instead!

On November 21st, 2013, Ukraine erupted in civil  unrest. The massive demonstrations were sparked  

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Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

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    林宜悉 posted on 2020/11/07
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