Name: Coronavirus: What next as UK deaths rise and cases surge? - BBC Newsnight
Uploaded: 2020-10-29T19:05:21.000Z
Duration: 12 min 45 s
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Ah, murderous second wave is underway on dso time for a stringent national lock down J.

Carefully, he has to pay reviews clear echoes of France's first wave as travel restrictions return.

This one will initially last for five weeks on schools on essential workplaces will remain open.

Some of the toughest measures in Europe as Germany for long a model in handling the virus also announced a dramatic tightening off restrictions.

The new measures by such close neighbors will intensify pressure on Boris Johnson to toughen restrictions on this side of the channel.

The UK is, after all, projected to be a few weeks behind.

France on the scientific advisory group for Emergencies is warning that the second wave could last longer than the first in the spring, The UK daily death rate quickly shot up to just over 1000 day before slowly coming down since September, death have bean on the up again On now, scientists fear they will rise to 500 a day by mid November.

We're already seeing a steady increase in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, but at a far slower rate than we saw in March, maybe doubling every 2 to 3 weeks.

But it is going carrying on in spite off the measures that have taken place.

It's quite plausible that they will carry on really throughout the winter.

I think it's gonna look much more like a ah bad flu season, which is spread over the whole of the winter rather than being enormously packed in like the first wave of this epidemic.

A significant moment for Boris Johnson as his own scientists.

One of the potency off the second wave on political pressure to after the used to mighty powers introduced nationwide measures.

Downing Street is watching developments across the channel with care.

But for now, the prime minister believes that targeted regional restrictions are the best approach over here way need to look carefully what other nations are doing, but recognizing that this government is up against it once again.

But we need to learn lessons from that first time round, understand that there may be a circuit breaker or another lock down, but actually we're keeping more people alive at the moment there's medicines available.

We're all more disciplined in what we're doing on what I'd like to see is not an exit strategy of such.

That must include keeping the economy alive, looking at clever ways off, allowing us to go about our business.

Labor believes the new restrictions on the continent highlight weaknesses in number tens.

I think again it shows that Boris Johnson is behind the coronavirus curved.

He should have used this half term for a short time, limited circuit break here in the United Kingdom in England to get on top of the virus, to save lives, to stop the NHS being overwhelmed.

And the fear now is that because he's differing because he's delaying that he'll be forced into a longer, deeper, locked down later next month, for or in December again, it's because Boris Johnson, like in the spring, has been too slow to act on.

Eerie silence befell the City of Lights in the first lock Down on now.

Well, I'm joined now by Robert West, the professor of Health Psychology University, College, London, who is also member of the behavioral science subgroup of Sage S B I B and clear Wenham, assistant professor of global health policy at the London School of Economics.

First of all, Professor West in July, Boris Johnson said is my strong, sincere hope will be able to review outstanding restrictions and of a significant return to normality.

End of November, possibly in time for Christmas is not gonna happen, is it?

I'm afraid it isn't on, but unfortunately, this was foreseen.

You know, when the restrictions were eased, you know, people were saying they were eased too soon on DTI too much at one time.

Then, as things started to get worse, we needed to act much more quickly than we have done.

So in the beginning, let's look at the first way.

We were told that we to protect the NHS, but actually became the Corvette NHS.

And as we now know, cancer operations were canceled.

Cancer death rules we've heard tonight that Greater Manchester is again canceling cancer operations.

Everyone knows some with cancer in the family.

There will be more cancer deaths if you do not adhere.

What we're seeing from the evidence is that people are adhering toa what they're being told to do.

The problem isn't so much the adherence to the rules.

That problem is the rules onda fact that explicit nature.

Is it not time to more explicit in that message about cancer?

Well, I think it's very important to understand that the NHS was not protected last time.

It was absolutely catastrophic for the NHS on it will be again.

Um, but you know, independent sage now, Sage has said, you know that it really isn't acceptable to have a continuing rise in infection rates because, you know, we will see more hospitalizations and deaths on Duthie.

NHS, of course, will suffer as a consequence.

Frankly, in the midst of deep winter might not be able to cope.

I mean, it was seen as a triumph that we weren't using the Nightingale Hospitals.

But actually, that's not Nestle a triumph for other kinds of illnesses as well.

We've already seen that there were substantial excess deaths not directly caused by co vid, and there will be more to come clear when.

Why do you think people are often not adhering to the majors?

Is it the fact that they're not scared or they're too scared of?

Nous is, for example, you know, they're they're scared of covert.

On the one hand, they're scared of a lot during the other.

I think some people are fed up of being where we are fed up of off.

Being in this kind of quasi state that we've seen in the last few months, I think others simply can't afford to go into to isolate.

We've seen a lot of data coming out showing people who aren't they good bye bye, These isolation requests because they have to get to work.

We had a government whose bean, you know, encouraging people to go out over the summer.

Let's not forget that the government we're encouraging people to go out and, you know, eat out and go back to work on trying to get people to socialize again on.

So there's really some mixed messages coming people are trying to have to grapple with at the moment.

But now and today we've got the stubbornly high number in the early 300 expected to rise.

Now is the time, surely to have trust between the government and the public.

And why does the public not trust the government?

What I mean, some some challenges in the risk communication across the course, this pandemic.

I think that, you know Johnson's message at the beginning of this would be out of this by Christmas was unrealistic, and I think he needed to prepare people better for actually, this is gonna be a long time tour out of this.

So it's not a political astute or savvy thing to say it's not good.

It's not gonna win you, you know, a crowd.

But that's the reality, and I think we now need to get that messaging right to prepare people for what's going to be a long winter, potentially a long 2021 on Also prepare people for the fact that the vaccine isn't necessarily the silver bullet and, you know, assumes we get a vaccine.

It's going to take time to distribute it, to roll it out.

So I think we need to really focus in on how the government is communicating, what the reality of the next few months.

Is the reality to follow France and Germany into a national lock down?

Yes, I think that it would be remarkable if the government sort of held out.