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  • an old friend of mine who's a cardiologists told me something shocking.

  • 40% of first heart attacks are fatal.

  • For some people, this comes as a complete surprise.

  • But for many, there were warning signs.

  • Diabetes, obesity, family history, you know.

  • Luckily, many people react to these warning signs before it's too late.

  • Men's Health magazine runs this regular story called the Belly Off Club, which features someone like this man Tom, who lost £150.

  • Every story includes what the magazine describes as if the wake up call that pivotal moment when the man realized something needed to change.

  • He was out with his kids and was out of breath, or his doctor told him he would die.

  • People do change, sometimes dramatically they do.

  • It's required to thrive.

  • Now we as a business community and as a species are getting wake up calls.

  • Well, we listen.

  • The first call record setting heat, droughts, floods and storms are becoming the norm.

  • Last year, Australia had to change their maps to reflect temperatures ranging from 50 to 50 C up to nearly 130 F.

  • The comedian Stephen Colbert commented at the time that's in January.

  • Imagine what it's like in the summer.

  • It is the summer in Australia.

  • No kidding aside, the scientific community and the business community are telling us that extreme weather is already costing us billions of dollars.

  • Climate change is not some model or future prediction to debate.

  • We are now living in a hotter, more volatile world.

  • The second wake up call.

  • The rising price of resource is as a 1,000,000,000 more people enter the middle class, demanding more of everything.

  • In one year, China built 17 billion square feet of new space.

  • Now picture all of the commercial buildings in Manhattan.

  • In that one year, China built not one commercial Manhattan, but the equivalent of 30.

  • This relentless rise in demand for resource is is causing a change, a fundamental shift in how the world works.

  • During the 20th century, according to McKinsey analysis, the cost of everything going into our economy, the commodities that we call metal and food and energy dropped steadily with exception for some world wars.

  • But in this century, the prices rose dramatically, wiping out 100 years of productivity gains in just 10.

  • We are living in a scarce or more expensive time and the third wake up call axes a multiplier on the other two.

  • Radical, technology driven transparency is opening up to public scrutiny.

  • Everything about how a company does business, including its suppliers and its partners around the world.

  • We can now ask Ann answer so many questions about every product.

  • Where did it come from, who made it where they paid a living wage?

  • What's the carbon footprint didn't use?

  • Toxic elements were scarce.

  • Resource is this hotter, scarcer, more open and connected world presents enormous risks, but huge opportunities.

  • Trillion dollar markets in energy, buildings, transportation, consumer products and finance are all in play.

  • I think business is uniquely qualified to tackle these challenges, but it's going to require a very deep change in how we do business.

  • What I'm calling the big pivot now.

  • Today, companies maximize short term earnings and then get to these big, shared environmental and social challenges when there's easy wins or there's enough pressure from outsiders.

  • We need to flip our priorities and operate in a way that tackles our largest challenges first and then work works back from there to find away that uses capitalism and markets and all of the tools, we have to do it most profitably.

  • This is about resilience.

  • When Hurricane Sandy hit New York, we learned how fragile we really are.

  • The sea's rushed into Lower Manhattan and a part of the electric grid.

  • A transponder exploded, plunging lower Manhattan, the heart of the business world, the heart of the financial world, into darkness.

  • For four days, we need to lessen our dependency on old technologies and ancient fuels.

  • Europe is waking up to the fact that 1/3 of its coal, oil and natural gas comes from this man.

  • This is my favorite picture of a world leader ever.

  • Europe has not been resilient toe Hurricane Putin, as I like to call it now, Germany and Switzerland and other countries.

  • They're moving away from fossil fuels as fast as they can, and companies around the world are realizing they need to move quickly to the clean economy as well.

  • Wal Mart is the largest buyer of solar power in the country outside of the military, and when they announced an increasing commitment to renewables, one of the top executives said, Hey, this keeps us open and running, no matter what the weather is no matter who else might be down.

  • This is strong resilience, aggressive resilience.

  • We can sell more stuff because we're independent and we're flexible.

  • But how do we capture this?

  • This resilience and the big pivot well out of 10 strategies that I think are required, I'm focusing today just on three really critical issues that change how we see the world, our vision and our perspective.

  • First, we need to fight the plague of short termism in business.

  • Corporate leaders are trying to please Wall Street, which is now more of a casino than a market where over half the shares are bought and sold in milliseconds less than a blink of an eye.

  • How can that be about fundamental value?

  • A few CEO is like Unilever's Paul Polman are fighting short termism by changing the conversation with Wall Street or by stopping those quarterly meetings with investors that don't care about real value creation.

  • Second, we need to set bold science based goals in business.

  • We set our target's bottom up, asking everybody how much they think they can.

  • D'oh!

  • But now imagine We were all in a boat.

  • It was filling with water.

  • What we would not do is ask everyone.

  • How much do you think you can bail today?

  • How much do you feel like you can do?

  • No, we'd start bailing immediately, and we'd figure out how much we have to bail to stay afloat.

  • We now know how fast we need to go on carbon in particular.

  • The numbers Guys at PWC have calculated that we need to reduce the amount of carbon per dollar of GDP by more than 6% per year indefinitely.

  • It's far faster than we're going today.

  • Now a few companies have done what's required and set their goals based on science.

  • Ford Motor Company figured out what its vehicles would need to look like in the coming years to help the world meet the carbon reduction goals, better engines, biofuels, electrification and much more.

  • This strategy led directly to the announcement that the F 1 50 for 2015 would be £700 lighter due to a shift from steel toe aluminum.

  • This is risky, heretical work for Ford.

  • I mean, this is their number one best selling, most profitable vehicle that they're fundamentally altering.

  • It's a pretty big pivot, but consider now, also Tesla's the most successful maker of electric cars.

  • That's asking an even more heretical question.

  • Why do we need an internal combustion engine?

  • And this brings me to my third strategy, which is asking her radical questions that challenge the way we do things.

  • Can we collaborate with our direct competitors, or even with our bitter critics, to solve big challenges?

  • Can we operate with no fossil fuels or water this building?

  • The Bullitt Center in Seattle generates more energy than it needs.

  • So can we build so called regenerative businesses and products that, through their existence, improve the world?

  • Yes.

  • Can we challenge business models?

  • CVS, a major drug store chain with 100 25 billion in sales, stop selling tobacco recently and renamed itself CVS Health.

  • They asked a heretical question.

  • Can we stop selling products that don't fit with our strategy of improving people's health or stop supporting products that have no place in a thriving, prosperous world?

  • Some companies are trying now to connect their products to purpose, a larger purpose, like bringing energy or water to the developing world.

  • We're teaching young Children hand washing skills to save lives like Unilever is doing now.

  • This may sound like philanthropy, and on some level of course it is.

  • But there's also a cold, hard business logic here.

  • If Children don't survive easily preventable diseases, they can't grow up to contribute to society or become part of the marketplace as customers or employees.

  • If people have no water or energy, they can't buy detergent or computers.

  • As many wise people have said, business cannot thrive unless society and the planet are thriving as well.

  • We're not separate our mega challenges, and our economies are all connected.

  • So let me ask you, how will you challenge how you live and how you do business?

  • To deal with the realities we face and take advantage of the opportunities we need business to innovate and create new products, new business models that bring about a thriving future.

  • We need business leaders to think with their heads and their wallets, for sure, but also with their hearts.

  • What's your heresy?

  • What if our future and our lives depended on the answers?

an old friend of mine who's a cardiologists told me something shocking.

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B1 pivot world resilience manhattan carbon thriving

Andrew Winston: The Big Pivot

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    林宜悉 posted on 2020/04/04
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