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  • OK, Here we go.

  • Ready?

  • Yeah.

  • Election 2019.

  • The Paths to Power.

  • So Robert, we now all have the general election that we've

  • been so looking forward to.

  • What do you think of it so far?

  • I've been enjoying it so far.

  • It's only a day.

  • So, so far it's been all right.

  • Yes, barely 24 hours in.

  • Yes, I think we're all fairly confident at last that we have,

  • if not a resolution that there's a plan for a resolution

  • for the starters.

  • So...

  • So if not the beginning of the end, then maybe

  • the end of the beginning.

  • Yes, or the beginning of the beginning.

  • Or the beginning of the beginning.

  • So we're going to try, because there's

  • no sense in which prediction is a mug's game in politics

  • these days, we're going to try and take us

  • through some of the potential outcomes.

  • Yeah.

  • And I think you think there's mainly

  • those can be bulked into three potential election results.

  • And then where that ends us in terms of the Brexit story.

  • Yeah, I think that's right.

  • Three most likely election results,

  • one is a Conservative victory.

  • OK, shall we make that blue?

  • Yeah.

  • Where are we going... where are we going to end this up?

  • How about there?

  • OK.

  • OK.

  • A Conservative party victory is one option.

  • This is outright majority.

  • Outright majority, yes.

  • ...that was lost in 2017.

  • The second option, clearly most people think is less likely,

  • but nonetheless, a Labour victory.

  • OK.

  • Can I have the red pen, please?

  • Thank you very much.

  • I'll keep the black pen now.

  • OK.

  • Yeah.

  • And the third one's a hung parliament.

  • OK.

  • I don't think either of us believe that Liberal Democrats

  • are going to sweep to victory.

  • So these are the three fundamental options.

  • And each one of them has a path to how we get there

  • and significant roadblocks in the way.

  • Very few people vote for a hung parliament, but it is a very,

  • very realistic outcome... many people think the most likely

  • outcome.

  • Because both of the main parties have serious challenges...

  • Absolutely.

  • ...in trying to get a majority, which is what we're going

  • to try and explain a bit today.

  • But obviously, Boris Johnson has been saying for some weeks

  • now that he's desperate to have this election.

  • So why is he going for it if it's such a gamble?

  • And what are the pitfalls in terms of trying

  • to gain that majority?

  • It is an astonishing gamble.

  • When you think about what is at stake for him,

  • he would become, if he lost, the shortest serving prime minister

  • in the last 100 years, the third shortest serving prime minister

  • ever.

  • Brexit, which apparently was his life's mission,

  • would be thrown into real doubt.

  • You know, it might not happen at all because of a referendum.

  • And if it did happen, it'd be a very different Brexit

  • to the kind the Brexiters want.

  • So massive risks here.

  • He would have to secure, essentially,

  • what is the third Tory election victory in a row.

  • That doesn't happen often.

  • He's got no majority in them, which

  • means he's got to gain seats at a time

  • when we know there are places where he's going to lose them.

  • Why has he gone for it?

  • I think because they've made the calculation

  • that if they can't get the deal through quickly

  • that their next best bet is to make Brexit

  • the subject of this election and to set up

  • this people versus parliament election, and say, look,

  • we were going to do what you asked us to do,

  • but parliament wouldn't let us.

  • He's very worried about the Brexit party, Nigel Farage's

  • party.

  • And he thinks he has more chance against them

  • if there aren't months and months of delay and compromise

  • on Brexit now.

  • So if Johnson succeeds - blue pen - in getting his majority.

  • There he is on election night.

  • What does he do next?

  • This is the scenario in which he wins

  • and he carries on with his Brexit plan.

  • Well, if he wins, I think it's quite straightforward.

  • He pushes Brexit through.

  • I have heard people talk about how we'll

  • have Brexit on January the 1st.

  • That seems to be a little bit ambitious in the formation

  • of a new parliament.

  • But in January no further extensions.

  • He's got a majority, and we have a Tory government.

  • That's easy.

  • But, as we know, there are lots of sort of roadblocks.

  • I'm going to put little crosses for roadblocks in the way.

  • OK.

  • OK.

  • So roadblock one is the Brexit party.

  • We know, there you go, you're going to tussle me.

  • Well, no, I mean, it's absolutely true.

  • So it seems to me he's actually got problems on several fronts.

  • He's really vulnerable to the Lib Dems in areas of the UK

  • where Remain is strong, and also where

  • the sort of traditional Tory message of -

  • the traditional Tory message of sort

  • of stability and prosperity - has been really disrupted

  • by them being such enthusiastic Brexiters.

  • So he's vulnerable to the Lib Dems in the south of England.

  • If he's losing those seats, he's got to pick them up elsewhere.

  • He thinks he's going to pick up all these seats from the Labour

  • party in the north of England, in the Midlands.

  • He kind of needs to do that to compensate.

  • The Brexit party, if they stand against him,

  • could really mess it up for him.

  • But they've gone quite quiet.

  • They have.

  • So are they still biding their time, do we think?

  • Or do we think they've realised that the Brexit side that will

  • win in this election, either Remain or Leave,

  • will have to be the side that's most united?

  • I mean, I think it's a massive question for Nigel Farage.

  • But essentially there is only one way

  • that we are guaranteed Brexit after the general election,

  • and that is a Conservative victory.

  • That is the only path that guarantees Brexit.

  • And if Nigel Farage stands and runs

  • a good campaign against him, his primary achievement

  • will be to throw Brexit into doubt.

  • So it's a massive question.

  • But if you go through this... you take the Liberal Democrats.

  • You're absolutely right.

  • They're a huge threat to the Conservatives

  • in certain places.

  • There are some seats in London and in the south, which

  • the Conservatives have effectively given up

  • on holding, because they know the Lib Dems are going

  • to take those seats off them.

  • St Albans, maybe Cheltenham, some in London,

  • you know, Richmond Park.

  • There's quite a lot actually.

  • These are places where the Tories know the Lib

  • Dems are likely to beat them.

  • I'm just going to add one here.

  • OK, add another.

  • I'm just going to add the SNP.

  • The SNP, yes, good point.

  • So in the Lib Dems, they know there's

  • a lot of places they've got to run.

  • Most of Lib Dem target seats are Conservative seats.

  • And a lot of them are very vulnerable.

  • I think the Tories have essentially written those

  • off, more or less, already.

  • They'll try and pull a few back so the Lib Dems don't make

  • quite the inroads they expect.

  • But they've more or less written them off.

  • Their strategy is to take the seats of Labour, as you said.

  • The problem with the Brexit party

  • is not that I think that it can win many, or indeed any, seats,

  • but that in an election where there are four parties,

  • it doesn't need to do much to be a spoiler.

  • Take Wolverhampton South West.

  • It was Enoch Powell's seat back in the day.

  • The Tory party lost it to Labour a few elections back.

  • Labour still holds it.

  • It's got a majority of about 2,100.

  • So an absolute prime target seat, a seat the Tories

  • absolutely have to take, a real homeland

  • of the Conservative working class vote.

  • Yes.

  • Exactly the target they expect to take off the Labour party.

  • If the Brexit party go in there and take a few thousand votes,

  • that could be the difference.

  • It could make it too hard to call,

  • if those votes for Labour, votes that the Tories needed

  • or whatever.

  • So it throws it all up into the air.

  • And the Brexit party can be the massive spoilers

  • for Boris Johnson in this election.

  • So I think we agree then.

  • It's not that we're expecting the Brexit party,

  • if they run an aggressive campaign,

  • to pick up loads of MPs.

  • It's that they could mess things up.

  • Absolutely.

  • As for Boris.

  • And I think that's why they're holding back at the moment.

  • Yes.

  • And I think the Tories' whole strategy is taking those Labour

  • seats, some of which look very vulnerable,

  • some of which look a stretch to me.

  • If they lose as many seats to the Lib Dems

  • as we sort of think they're going to.

  • It's a big question mark for me.

  • And, as you said, Scotland as well.

  • If they lose most of their 13 seats.

  • Thirteen, they've got.

  • So you've got 13 Scottish Tories.

  • Yeah, and we think it can be down to three possibly.

  • Yeah.

  • So even on a generous estimate, they'

  • lose, say, 20 to 25 seats between the SNP and the Liberal

  • Democrats.

  • They've then got to pick up 40-odd seats from Labour that

  • they didn't win last time, when, it's worth remembering,

  • Theresa May got 42 per cent of the vote.

  • So it's a big, big ask.

  • And it's a real problem for Boris Johnson.

  • Then the other thing is he wants to win

  • the whole election talking about Brexit and delivery.

  • And the more the other parties can get him off it,

  • the more problematic it is for him.

  • So this little person here, that I've drawn here,

  • in his charming flat cap, he is supposed

  • to be a kind of stereotypical northern, Brexit-voting, white,

  • working class chap over the age of 60.

  • Is he?

  • OK.

  • ...

  • - who is Tory -

  • I thought that very clear.

  • He is the person that the Tory party has decided they need

  • to get onside in order to win all these Labour seats.

  • They're calling him Workington Man, another one

  • of these unbelievably insulting sorts of monikers

  • that party politics chooses for their target voter.

  • Yeah.

  • But the crucial thing is Workington

  • is a town in Cumbria.

  • It's a fairly marginal Labour-held seat and very

  • Brexity.

  • Yeah.

  • So they think they can get all these people to vote Tory,

  • even if they...

  • Even if they've spent their whole lives hating the Tories.

  • Exactly, which, I mean, I have to say, even with Brexit

  • as this very disruptive force in British politics,

  • I think that's a big ask.

  • And that's where the Brexit party is so interesting

  • because it is also possible there is an upside to them

  • standing.

  • But who the hell knows which way it goes?

  • Which is they take those Labour votes,

  • that those Leave voters who can't bring themselves to vote

  • Conservative vote for the Brexit party.

  • The Labour vote goes down, Tory vote goes up,

  • and somehow it still works.

  • So that's why this election is going to be so very, very

  • difficult to call and why the national polls are going

  • to be so immensely unhelpful.

  • But I want to go on to the Labour party now.

  • Can I just say one thing on the numbers?

  • Yes.

  • OK.

  • Because what you've described that's so interesting is that

  • at every constituency level, you could have some kind

  • of four-way fight, effectively - Tories, Labour,

  • and the Brexit party - Tories, Labour, and the Lib Dems -

  • Tories, Labour, and the SNP, or any other sort of mixture

  • of those, which means you could get a lot of constituencies

  • that you can gain on about 30 per cent of the vote locally.

  • Exactly right, yeah.

  • ...because the rest of the vote is so split.

  • So it's really unpredictable.

  • So I think the number one message

  • is, pay no attention to national opinion polls.

  • Don't pay too much attention because they're

  • going to be misleading.

  • OK, can we have a go at what Labour need to do.

  • Because obviously, in 2017, with Jeremy Corbyn at the helm,

  • a lot of us said, you know, Labour has absolutely no

  • chance.

  • And May started off with an even more healthy lead in 2017

  • than Johnson's got now in terms of the national polls.

  • But Labour made a lot of progress during the course

  • of the campaign.

  • And clearly, they would hope to do that again and get over

  • the line.

  • Yeah.

  • To me, the big unknown in this election is the Labour party

  • because it's very easy to explain why it will all go

  • horribly wrong for Labour.

  • It's very easy to explain that.

  • People are sick of Jeremy Corbyn.

  • He's peaked.

  • They've seen through him.

  • They're nowhere in the opinion polls.

  • This time, Remain voters have got a more Remainy

  • option to choose, which is the Liberal Democrats.

  • There's all kinds of reasons why this could,

  • and maybe even should, go wrong for Labour.

  • But the idea that Labour is going to end this election

  • at 22 per cent, 23 per cent in the opinion polls seems

  • ridiculous to me.

  • Yes, quite.

  • So they will go up.

  • They will build support.

  • They will go up.

  • They are good at campaigns.

  • Furthermore, in most of the key battlegrounds,

  • whether it's about Brexit or something else,

  • the choice is Labour or Conservative.

  • So in most seats, those are the first and second place parties.

  • So...

  • So I put this that, you know, the bumps in the road.

  • Yeah.

  • I've put the Corbyn factor because the leadership

  • is a big problem for lots of people.

  • And he's got record low approval ratings.

  • Not Remain enough.

  • Absolutely.

  • Or do we think also not Leave enough for other people or...

  • Possibly.

  • But I think if you are so obsessed with Brexit.

  • Brexit is the number one issue for you,

  • the only thing that matters, and leaving is the only thing that

  • matters, then fundamentally, you shouldn't vote Labour.

  • You should vote Tory or vote Brexit party.

  • It's your prime consideration.

  • What I think is interesting, though, there

  • are all those people, all these leave voters who

  • don't regret their decision, but for whom Brexit is not actually

  • the number one issue.

  • Quite.

  • Yes.

  • I totally agree.

  • There were reasons that made them vote Brexit.

  • It wasn't Brexit in itself.

  • And Labour's whole strategy in this election is going to be

  • talk about Brexit as little as possible.

  • It's got a position.

  • Our position is, we're still trying to Brexit.

  • We're still trying to get you a deal.

  • But we're going to give you a choice.

  • And that choice will include Remain, so don't worry.

  • Now, let's talk about the National Health Service.

  • So in fact, their campaign probably

  • will be don't mention Europe.

  • Exactly.

  • And they've got a lot of policies and a lot of messages,

  • which I think lots of people have

  • a lot of problems with their answers to these questions.

  • But the questions they're asking are

  • ones that resonate with people.

  • Why is society so unfair?

  • Why does it feel so loaded against ordinary people?

  • Why are my public services not good enough?

  • Why aren't the rich paying enough taxes?

  • All these...

  • why don't I have more control over my life?

  • And on all these... and really, importantly,

  • what are we going to do about the environment and climate

  • change threat?

  • And on all these issues, Labour has a clear position.

  • And I think it's built up quite a clever patchwork quilt

  • of policies to appeal to a lot of people.

  • And I think the more this election goes on, the more it

  • gets off Brexit, the better Labour's chances are going

  • to be.

  • I agree.

  • What about the battlegrounds, though?

  • Because I would say that Labour has got the same problem that

  • the Tories have in one sense, which is the SNP.

  • Because the Labour party, traditionally,

  • where they've got a majority in the House of Commons is

  • because they've had an army of Scottish Labour MPs.

  • Well, they've never won without winning in England, have they?

  • No.

  • But it's very important, that battleground, to them.

  • Absolutely, yeah.

  • And now, the Scottish fight has become,

  • you know, we've got left-right politics.

  • We've got the Brexit divide.

  • In Scotland, it's also way more complicated

  • because this is a massive opportunity for the SNP

  • to sweep the board and argue their case for being allowed

  • a second independence referendum.

  • So Labour will, I would say, really struggle to make

  • the numbers for a majority because of Scotland.

  • I would agree, which takes us, I think, to this point, which

  • is the hung parliament again, that actually,

  • the serious possibility we could have this election and be

  • back, more or less, where we are now.

  • Yay.

  • Now, the SNP, essentially, in terms of formation

  • of government, the SNP goes into the Labour column.

  • It's not going to put the Tories back into power.

  • It will be prepared to put the Labour party into power.

  • Absolutely, particularly if they're offered

  • their independence referendum now.

  • In terms of getting a Labour coalition government together

  • the SNP seats are almost fungible with Labour in that

  • sense.

  • So the question then is, could they... could Labour...

  • So OK, so in fact, we can bring the SNP's strength down here

  • as a factor in a hung parliament, couldn't we?

  • Absolutely.

  • I mean, the whole Tory message...

  • I was talking to somebody the other day.

  • He said, our message is going to be vote Farage, get Corbyn.

  • And then he stopped for a second.

  • Then it's going to be vote Swinson, get Corbyn.

  • And actually, vote Sturgeon, get Corbyn.

  • This is partly a fact because the Conservatives

  • have no natural coalition partners, of course.

  • Yeah.

  • They have way fewer options.

  • Probably none, now, in fact, having sold out the DUP.

  • The DUP, yeah.

  • So actually, the moment Boris Johnson doesn't have

  • a majority, obviously, A, we're into a hung parliament,

  • assuming Labour doesn't win, and B,

  • there's probably only one outcome.

  • Because there's only one coalition

  • that can be assembled.

  • And it's not a Tory one.

  • Now, I suppose there's a point where

  • he's so close to a majority that he could still

  • run with a minority government, but that

  • doesn't solve the issue of getting Brexit through.

  • So here's the question in terms of Brexit.

  • So if you're in this territory again,

  • and you've got Labour as the largest party,

  • we assume it'll do some sort of governing deal with the SNP

  • in exchange for a second independence referendum

  • in Scotland.

  • But the SNP and the Lib Dems, who may be up to a much more

  • substantive number of MPs if their campaign goes well...

  • and that will be a pure Remain campaign as well.

  • The Lib Dems and the SNP will want Labour to dump Brexit.

  • Or at the very, very least, they'll

  • want that second referendum in an active Remain campaign.

  • It's weird to me.

  • I mean, you've gone a stage further than some people would

  • go, which is talking about Labour as the largest party.

  • But assuming that the numbers allowed a Labour...

  • But it's possible, right?

  • Of course its possible yeah.

  • A Labour, SNP, Lib Dem grouping to take power,

  • which clearly is possible.

  • Well, you wouldn't even need that.

  • You'd need Labour and the SNP, and the Lib Dems could just

  • give it..

  • With the Liberal Dems' acquiescence.

  • ... a nod in some way.

  • I mean, I think, given that the Labour position has been

  • to renegotiate a deal rather than just scrap it,

  • I don't think Labour could scrap Brexit.

  • But what the SNP and the Lib Dems could do is say to Labour,

  • OK, we want the most minimalist Brexit now.

  • We want the full... we want the Norway option,

  • stay in the single market, stay in the customs union,

  • put it to a referendum.

  • But I think Jeremy Corbyn would pay that price

  • as the price of power.

  • The question is whether the Lib Dems could allow him to be

  • the prime minister, having gone so publicly on the record

  • to say they couldn't.

  • I think then they'd have no choice if Labour insisted

  • on it.

  • Well, they'd rule out a coalition.

  • But a coalition is one thing, and allowing somebody to govern

  • is another.

  • So you could have a second referendum,

  • which, in fact, ends up with something

  • like Norway-plus versus Remain.

  • Yeah, I think you absolutely could, certainly

  • customs union versus Remain.

  • Right.

  • I think if we end up in a hung parliament

  • then a referendum is very, very, very likely,

  • even if the Tories are the largest

  • party because people are going to say, how do we

  • cut this cord?

  • How do we get through this?

  • At some point, you have to say, the only way through this

  • is to take Brexit out of the hands of the political parties

  • that patently can't handle it.

  • I'll just come back to the Tory victory point

  • there, by the way.

  • Because the other thing, I think, that we didn't discuss

  • is although Boris Johnson has a pitch, which

  • is I'm trying to get things done,

  • I'm trying to get this country moving again,

  • they've been in power in one form or another since 2010.

  • They've been in power on their own for three years.

  • They have achieved very little in three years,

  • except division, doubt, and an absolute shambles

  • at Westminster.

  • It is quite possible that voters will just look at them and say,

  • you lot, you've had your go, and you've messed it up.

  • And if Labour get motoring with we are the campaign for change,

  • we're the party for change, I think Boris Johnson could be

  • on the back foot very quickly.

  • So this is an enormous gamble on his part.

  • And it could very easily go wrong.

  • So basically, we're saying, is he fighting the Brexit election

  • that he wants to fight?

  • Or is he defending nine, nearly 10 years

  • of Conservative government and all the problems

  • that that brings with it?

  • I think that's absolutely right.

  • And I think... the other thing you have to remember with

  • election campaigns is, in terms of the coverage,

  • in terms of what people want to talk about,

  • in terms of what the media want to do,

  • we do not want to talk about Brexit for five weeks.

  • There's just not that much more to say.

  • It is possible to change the story very quickly by talking

  • about, we're saving the planet.

  • We are re-orderising capitalism.

  • We are making a fairer society.

  • We're going to give the railways back to you.

  • These are strong arguments.

  • And they make for more interesting news headlines.

  • And so I think if the Conservative party strategists

  • think that this route was the second-best option

  • after getting a deal, then all I can say

  • is I'd hate to have seen the third route.

  • So I think, in fact, whereas as we start this campaign,

  • we're looking at a really fractured set of polls.

  • It seems as if everything's up for grabs.

  • It's actually quite possible that we

  • see some sort of action replay of 2017,

  • where, although it was billed as a Brexit election,

  • it turned out to not be the Brexit

  • election because domestic policies disrupted

  • the whole thing.

  • And we also saw that, despite the underlying fracturing,

  • there was a massive squeeze on the Lib Dems.

  • And you actually saw a lot of people voting either Tory

  • or Labour.

  • That's right.

  • And I think the Lib Dems have got a very interesting

  • question, because up until now, Jo Swinson's policy has

  • been to say, we will not put Jeremy Corbyn in power.

  • And she's saying that because she

  • knows most of her key targets are Tories.

  • Her top targets are Tory seats.

  • She knows Tory voters won't want to put Jeremy Corbyn back.

  • But she also doesn't want to be in government with him.

  • But that's also true, a fair point.

  • But at some point, if the election goes a certain way,

  • she might have to actually have to start

  • asking the different question, answering a different question,

  • which is well, you say you're not going

  • to put Jeremy Corbyn in power.

  • Does that mean you're going to let Boris Johnson carry on?

  • Because at some point, this squeeze that you're talking

  • about, the fact the voters instinctively know there really

  • are only two prime ministerial candidates in this contest

  • means they're going to start asking... if they're really,

  • really anti-Conservative, they're going to start asking,

  • well, if I vote for you, am I actually putting Boris Johnson

  • back by mistake, just as, at the moment, people will say,

  • if I vote for you, will you put Jeremy Corbyn in?

  • At some point, if the Labour party gain ground,

  • people might start to say, well, hang on a minute.

  • I don't want Boris back.

  • So she's...

  • it's the classic trap for the Lib Dems, and she's as in it

  • as any of her predecessors.

  • What a wonderful set of choices lie before us, Robert.

  • Yes.

  • I think we're going to have to keep this map

  • and start marking up the roadblocks

  • as we get further along.

OK, Here we go.

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