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On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization made an announcement.
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In the past two weeks, the number of cases of COVID-19 outside China has increased 13-fold.
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COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic.
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The coronavirus, or COVID-19 disease, had already overwhelmed China, South Korea, Iran, and Italy.
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And this was a warning to other countries where it was now spreading quickly.
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In the days and weeks ahead, we expect to see the number of cases, the number of deaths, and the number affected countries climb even higher.
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The spread of COVID-19 was no longer something that could be stopped.
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But we can still slow it down.
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We just have to act right now.
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Someone with COVID-19 usually develops a fever and a cough.
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Aches, pains, and other mild symptoms are also possible, but are less frequent.
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But the severity of those symptoms varies, and for some people who get the virus, you might never show symptoms at all.
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Based on the data from China, the vast majority of cases are not life-threatening.
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In 80 percent of cases, people experience only mild disease.
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But in 20 percent of cases, the disease can manifest in a more serious way.
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It can develop into quite a severe pneumonia, where people need to be hospitalized and put on ventilators.
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Overall, it seems like about 1 to 2 percent of known cases lead to death, but that rate is much lower for young people, and much higher for the elderly.
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And it also seems as if people with unmanaged underlying chronic diseases, they also have a tougher time overcoming the virus.
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The virus also seems to be very contagious, more contagious than the flu.
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All you need to do to spread COVID-19 is cough or sneeze on someone else.
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Touch a surface where the virus still lives, and then put your hand in your mouth or your eyes or your nose.
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After getting infected, it can take an average of five to six days before you feel sick, and your symptoms start to appear.
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But you can already spread it to other people in that period, even if you feel healthy.
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Just as people realize they're sick, they seem to be at the most risk of passing it along to others.
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That's how the virus has been so effective at spreading across the world so quickly and why the WHO was now calling COVID-19 a pandemic.
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But what they said next was just as important.
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We cannot say this loudly enough.
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All countries can still change the course of this pandemic.
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And that depends on something each of us needs to do as individuals.
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So diseases become really dangerous when everyone gets sick at once, and the health system becomes overwhelmed.
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In any hospital, the capacity to treat patients is limited by how many beds they have.
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Think of this as the number of beds in your local hospital at any given time.
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A couple are already filled by patients receiving treatment for things like a car accident injury or a stroke.
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And this dot represents one person who's healthy and decides to go out like usual.
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They jump on the subway and head into the office, where they catch COVID-19.
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But they don't feel sick right away, and might not for several days.
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So, later they go to a basketball game, where they unknowingly infect two or three more people.
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Most of these people will have relatively mild cases, but one might be an elderly person with a severe case who will eventually have to go to the hospital.
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But these three, who are all infected but don't feel sick, go out again.
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On the subway, into the office, and then out after work, infecting several more people, twenty percent of whom will need to go to the hospital.
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Over a short period of time, this process multiplies the number of people going to the hospital each day.
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Before long, the hospital is full and a crisis begins.
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People with severe cases of COVID-19 can't get treatment, and some who could be saved, die.
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Plus, people with other issues can't get treatment either and some of them die.
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This surge of severe cases causes avoidable deaths.
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That's what happened in South Korea, Iran, and Italy, all of which went from 100 to more than 5,000 cases in less than two weeks.
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A lot of people died because they couldn't get into the hospitals.
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This surge is made up of only the severe cases, but it was generated by people who didn't feel sick spreading the disease in public.
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Which means the people who can do the most to avoid these unnecessary deaths, are these people.
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And that means all of us.
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To slow the virus down, you need to act as if you already have it.
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By avoiding public transportation, the office, crowded places, and even small social gatherings, you decrease your chances of both getting the disease, and spreading it.
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This is called social distancing.
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If enough of us do it, the virus still spreads—but much slower.
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Over time, many people might still get infected, but fewer severe cases show up to the hospital each day, never overwhelming the system.
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This trendline gets flatter, these people can all get treatment, and fewer people die because of it.
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These are the two ways the COVID-19 pandemic can play out.
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But this one only happens if everyone does their part.
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And it's why experts and officials are urging people to "flatten the curve" by social distancing, and staying home as much as possible.
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It's also why In the U.S., many companies are helping by requiring employees to work from home and major sports leagues have canceled their games for the time being.
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It may seem drastic but it's worked before.
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In 1918, the cities of Philadelphia and St. Louis were both hit by a flu pandemic, but they responded in different ways.
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In Philadelphia, health officials allowed a huge parade to go ahead.
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While in St. Louis, officials prepared.
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They closed schools, theaters, and bars.
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Philadelphia's hospitals were overwhelmed and many more died as a result.
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But St. Louis was able to avoid those excessive deaths.
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A hundred years later, these are the two scenarios we face.
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A difference not in whether you get the coronavirus, but when you get it.
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That could mean the difference between life and death, maybe for someone you know.
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We have to act now.