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  • The 2020 presidential election is set to be one of the closest...

  • ...and ugliest in modern American history

  • Donald Trump is corruption in the flesh

  • You got a choice between sleepy Joe and crazy Bernie

  • We cannot continue having a president...

  • ...who is a pathological liar

  • Donald Trump, determined not to go down as a one-term president...

  • ...is firing up his base

  • The Democrats are desperate to pick the candidate most likely to beat him

  • But how can they know who that is?

  • We cannot continue with Trump...

  • ...in the office of the president of the United States

  • Poll after poll shows that the overriding priority...

  • ...for most Democrats is beating Donald Trump in the 2020 election

  • Would this work against Trump, could this beat Trump...

  • ...would this get Trump out of the White House?

  • Even if that candidate doesn’t completely share their political views

  • Donald Trump is a stronger candidate than his low approval rating suggests

  • Generally, incumbent presidents...

  • ...who are dealing with very strong economies...

  • ...are in almost unbeatable positions for re-election

  • He filed his re-election-campaign paperwork the day he got sworn in

  • No president has ever done that

  • He’s been running for re-election from day one

  • Despite three years of political tumult...

  • ...a lack of serious legislative accomplishments...

  • ...and an impeachment trial...

  • ...Donald Trump looks poised for a roughly 50:50 shot at re-election

  • We will keep that beautiful, beautiful White House

  • We will keep it

  • But those fighting to lead the Democrats...

  • ...are divided over what to offer Americans in Trump’s place

  • Youve got Joe Biden, the former vice-president

  • Bernie Sanders, the democratic socialist

  • Elizabeth Warren, the wonkish reformer

  • Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor

  • Michael Bloomberg, the self-made self-funding billionaire

  • And Amy Klobuchar, the moderate Midwesterner

  • Candidates fight it out in a series of state primaries and caucuses...

  • ...to be the Democratic victor

  • Who could be Donald Trump’s most forceful foe?

  • The best place to start...

  • ...is to look at how Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008 and 2012

  • Barack Obama won the presidency...

  • ...by creating a coalition that had never been created before

  • We have the most diverse coalition of Americans...

  • ...that weve seen in a long, long time

  • Barack Obama united a diverse range of groups

  • They are black and white...

  • ...Latino and Asian and Native American

  • He brought in young, old...

  • ...rich and poor...

  • ...college-educated whites...

  • ...and did well enough with white, working-class voters

  • It was part message, part motivation...

  • ...part wanting to get past the eight years of Bush

  • And he balanced somewhat liberal positions...

  • ...with a pragmatic streak as a candidate

  • The so-calledObama coalition”...

  • ...has taken on an almost mythical significance for Democrats

  • Hillary Clinton tried to replicate it in 2016...

  • ...and failed

  • Hillary Clinton lost support among African-American voters...

  • ...but they were more importantly less likely to turn out...

  • ...than they were in 2012

  • Her losses among white, working-class voters...

  • ...in the Midwestern states were particularly harmful

  • The right votes in the right places are what counts

  • In 2016 Hillary Clinton actually won the popular vote by almost 3m

  • But she lost the election because in America...

  • ...presidents aren’t directly elected...

  • ...by the people who vote for them

  • Voters actually determine which candidate...

  • ...will get the support of their state...

  • ...in the electoral college process

  • The bigger the state’s population...

  • ...the more votes it has to decide the presidency

  • In almost every state...

  • ...the party that wins the state’s popular vote...

  • ...gets all of the state’s electoral college votes

  • Hillary Clinton won huge margins of voters...

  • ...in large states like New York and California

  • Clinton won almost 2m more votes than Trump in New York...

  • ...which translated to her winning 29 electoral college votes

  • She lost by slim margins in crucial states in the Midwest

  • Clinton lost Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania...

  • ...by nearly 78,000 votes

  • Yet it cost her 46 electoral college votes, and the election

  • The battle in 2020 will be played out...

  • ...in the same three states in the Midwest

  • Barack Obama was victorious in all three states in 2008 and 2012

  • Recreating the Obama coalition...

  • ...is still the Democratsbest bet to beat Trump

  • It’s a low-risk strategy...

  • ...that has proven successful in the past

  • A majority of college-educated whites...

  • ...are almost guaranteed to vote for Democrats in 2020...

  • ...whoever the candidate is

  • The real challenge is to appeal to the two groups...

  • ...that cost Clinton the presidency...

  • ...working-class whites and African-Americans

  • Joe Biden performs well in primary polling...

  • ...among both African-Americans and among white, working-class voters

  • He is the candidate that’s best placed to reassemble the Obama coalition

  • While Joe Biden has enjoyed the most support from African-Americans...

  • ...his popularity with this group is falling

  • It’s questionable whether or not...

  • ...he could turn out non-whites and young voters...

  • ...who frankly aren’t very enthused by his campaign...

  • ...but have just supported him as a sort of default...

  • ...Obama-esque option in the primaries

  • Biden is going to be defending Obama...

  • ...and his ability to explain that record and defend it...

  • ...and compare it to Trump’s...

  • ...is going to be what’s going to decide the election...

  • ...in a Trump-Biden race

  • I just don’t think Biden is anywhere near as compelling...

  • ...a communicator as Obama was

  • Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented...

  • ...as white kids

  • If Joe Biden won’t turnout the youth...

  • ...could a younger candidate unlock the Obama coalition?

  • What a night!

  • Pete Buttigieg, former mayor of a mid-sized city in Indiana...

  • ...enjoyed an unexpected primary surge

  • It’s clear Joe Biden sees Pete Buttigieg as a threat...

  • ...mocking his inexperience in a recent campaign ad

  • Joe Biden helped save the auto industry...

  • ...which revitalised the economy of the Midwest

  • Pete Buttigieg revitalised the sidewalks of downtown South Bend

  • While some call Buttigieg’s charisma Obama-like...

  • ...recreating Obama’s coalition is likely to be out of reach for him

  • Buttigieg has almost zero visible African-American support anywhere

  • And Pete Buttigieg actually performs worse than Joe Biden...

  • ...with the young

  • His lack of support with key voters...

  • ...means Donald Trump would likely beat him in a general election

  • One moderate believes there’s another way...

  • ...to build a coalition to beat Donald Trump

  • Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar...

  • ...is forgoing Barack Obama’s diverse coalition...

  • ...in favour of a simpler strategy

  • She’s pinning all of her hopes on winning over...

  • ...the white, working-class voters in the key states in the Midwest...

  • ...on which the election hinges

  • She represents a sort of middle ground, middle risk, middle-reward strategy...

  • ...for the presidency in which she simply wins well in the Midwest...

  • ...which is crucial for the electoral college and thus wins the presidency

  • Amy Klobuchar polls closely against Donald Trump in a theoretical match-up...

  • ...and has a history of state victories to back up her campaign

  • She’s won in her state of Minnesota...

  • ...statewide elections for US Senate by overwhelming margins

  • And she’s won in rural areas...

  • ...she’s won in suburban areas and she’s won in urban areas

  • She truly understands the Midwest

  • And so I think she would automatically put...

  • ...Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin in play...

  • ...in a way no other candidate would

  • Yet nationally among Democrats, Amy Klobuchar polls badly

  • It’s very hard to run for president...

  • ...and not be a national figure when you start

  • And because of that she has had real trouble raising money...

  • ...and convincing donors and voters...

  • ...that she has a path to being the nominee

  • Moderates Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar...

  • ...are advocating for small repairs to improve America...

  • ...rather than revolution

  • If you are tired of the extremes in our politics...

  • ...you have a home with me

  • Yet an extreme populist position...

  • ...is exactly what progressives Bernie Sanders...

  • ...and Elizabeth Warren are banking on for success

  • They have radical plans for the government...

  • ...and for a radically different coalition to get them there

  • First, change the rules in Washington

  • Two, change the rules in our economy

  • Now let’s go to the third one...

  • ...change the rules in our politics

  • They think that they can juice turnout...

  • ...among white, young, disaffected, working-class voters

  • The radicals argue these disaffected voters...

  • ...have been neglected by the Democrats for years

  • Theyre aiming to win them back...

  • ...with class struggle and economic populism

  • I am prepared to stand with the working class of this country...

  • ...and take on the greed and corruption of the corporate elite

  • Rather than the racial politics...

  • ...that Donald Trump has put at the forefront of his campaigns

  • Local officials order police to release...

  • ...dangerous criminal aliens to prey upon the public

  • Bernie Sanders’s strength is drawn from voters...

  • ...who really want to blow up the system

  • The young and the white, working class...

  • ...are particularly embracing his approach

  • Sanders is running fully on Medicare for all...

  • ...fully on Green New Deal, fully on raising taxes...

  • ...and big government

  • Are you ready for a political revolution?

  • It’s a high-risk strategy but could conceivably work

  • If they can sell their transformative message...

  • ...this strategy should not be underestimated

  • Surprisingly around 19% of Republicans...

  • ...have economically progressive views

  • If Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren succeed...

  • ...in making politics more about economics than race...

  • ...some of these voters might be ripe for the picking by Democrats

  • Yet their ideologically extreme positions...

  • ...may energise Donald Trump’s supporters...

  • ...to go out and vote against them

  • There are some big risks

  • The political-science research tells us that...

  • ...a moderate candidate tends to do better in presidential elections

  • And that’s because both...

  • ...they can pull some swing voters their way...

  • ...and more importantly, they don’t inflame the passions...

  • ...of the other party and get them to the polls

  • Warren and Sanders are talking about...

  • ...tens of trillions of dollars of new spending...

  • ...massive spending on all kinds of programmes

  • Youll see Trump make Sanders or Warren...

  • ...appear very extreme in terms of their proposals

  • I think he’s a communist...

  • ...I think of communism when I think of Bernie

  • Sanders and Warren are betting that theyll be better prepared...

  • ...better able to sell their populist message to the people

  • But in an era when Donald Trump has proven pretty capable...

  • ...of doing that already with anti-immigrant rhetoric...

  • ...it is a hard sell indeed

  • And the late entry of Michael Bloomberg...

  • ...a New Yorker, like Trump, a businessman, like Trump...

  • ...and much, much richer than Trump, is unsettling the president

  • He doesn’t have the magic to do well. Little Michael will fail

  • I’m a New Yorker. I know how to take on...

  • ...an arrogant conman like Donald Trump

  • He could spend one or two billion dollars...

  • ...in the general election, basically evening out that financial advantage...

  • ...that Trump will have as the incumbent

  • Yet Michael Bloomberg’s ability to deliver a Trump-beating strategy...

  • ...like every other candidates’, appears flawed

  • Allegations tonight of sexism against Michael Bloomberg

  • Bloomberg is now a target...

  • ...defending his controversial police policy of stop and frisk

  • With no perfect candidate...

  • ...the Democratsbest strategy is to keep voters focused...

  • ...on Donald Trump’s failings rather than their own