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Welcome back to Pick of the Week, where Variety takes a look at all the major awards and tells you who we think has the edge to win right now.
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I'm Marc Malkin.
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And I'm Jenelle Riley.
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This week we are diving into the very crowded best actor Oscar race.
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This is one with so many variables.
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I'm not sure yet who will win, but there is one person who I feel comfortable calling a lock for a nomination, and only one.
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And that is Adam Driver from "Marriage Story."
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What I love about Nicole, she is a mother who plays.
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I mean, he's doing everything right.
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He has a hit movie where the performance is heralded.
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He is working the circuits as much as he can.
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I mean, he's simply one of the best actors we have working today and I think nobody would argue that.
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I think he's a lock, but I also think Joaquin Phoenix is a lock.
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I think everyone you talk to about "Joker," even if they don't like the movie, they always then say...
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But, Joaquin's amazing in it. Joaquin's amazing.
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His transformation, his transformation.
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So, I think the two locks right now are Adam and Joaquin.
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And there are huge actors giving amazing performances that I'm not sure they'll make the cut.
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It's a crazy field.
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Robert De Niro and Leonardo DiCaprio, both giving like, performances of their career.
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I don't how their working the circuit, and that affects it.
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I think the love for De Niro, the love for Leo, again I don't think they're on lock to win.
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No.
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But then you have people like Antonio Banderas, who won the best actor at Cannes for "Pain and Glory," like a career-best performance
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It's such a gorgeous performance.
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It's so beautiful.
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You know, to your point, he is campaigning, he has been everywhere.
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Taron Egerton, working his butt off in a performance that when "Rocket Man" came out, everyone you know made the joke, if Rami Malek can win for "Bohemian Rhapsody," well then, Taron Egerton should win the "Pulitzer Prize".
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Right, but then the problem was that it was so early, this was back in May when it premiered in Cannes, so it really has to have some legs here.
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And, does the Rami Malek thing hurt him?
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I think it might.
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Because, people are like, okay, you know what, we gave it to Rami Malek for "Bohemian Rhapsody," but Taron does do his own thing.
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And, the movie is much, much better.
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- Yes. - Yes.
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But also, we have Johnathan Pryce coming out in "The Two Popes."
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Tough to ignore.
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Really tough to ignore because I think people are really excited about "Two Popes" because they didn't expect it.
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Nope.
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You know, I was there in Telluride when they had the first screening and people walked out like...
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Wait a minute, that's not the movie I was expecting at all.
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I think a lot of people go into it thinking they're going to see two men talking about religion and get really heavy, and really dark, and its funny, and its just... - Charming.
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Two actors just chewing up the screen.
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And then we have the actor that I think I've been in love with since I saw this movie before Toronto, Eddie Murphy in "Dolemite is My Name."
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シェークダンサー?
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Huh!
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I think he's being underestimated by some, because he's probably gonna win the Golden Globe for comedy.
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Everyone is seeing the movie because it's on Netflix.
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Yep.
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He is just such a great actor in this movie.
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He's hosting Saturday Night Live at the end of December.
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Which is a big thing.
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Yeah, and then on top of that you have people like Robert Pattinson in "The Lighthouse."
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Which, you know, has everyone everywhere I know, going "The Lighthouse" is one of my favorite movies.
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Such a great performance.
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So incredible.
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Him, Willem Dafoe supporting.
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I mean it's just incredible.
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Adam Sandler in "Uncut Gems," I feel the same way about.
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Which is another one of my favorite movies of the year.
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And I think, Adam Sandler, I think, you know, he's someone again who has to get over that hump of that he's not just the funny comedian and he's not just a...
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How do we put that to rest?
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Hasn't he given enough amazing performances?
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That's what you would think.
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You would think, but let me tell you, if it was up to me he would be nominated.
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I also think Christian Bale has a shot for "Ford versus Ferrari."
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Both he and Matt Damon are really good. I think its going to be a big crowd pleaser.
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Yeah, I mean listen, I think "Ford versus Ferrari" is a great movie, I just don't see Christian or Matt getting in there.
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Not saying that they don't have a chance, but I just... I think when you look at these other performances, it's, you know, and Christian and Matt are going against each other.
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- Yup. - They're both campaigning for lead.
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We have two movies we haven't seen yet.
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We have Paul Walter Hauser in "Richard Jewell" which I am very high on.
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Just, you know, based on the trailer honestly.
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Right.
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And I usually don't do that.
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But then again, who knows?
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Who knows.
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And George MacKay, in "1917" which has yet to be seen.
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Yes.
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These could totally shake up the race.
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Also, just a couple people I want to throw out there:
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Edward Norton.
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I got threads in my hands!
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His movie "Motherless Brooklyn," not done well at the box office but has been playing great for SAG audiences.
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It's a very showy role.
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I don't think it has traction.
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I think it could get into SAG, and then we could see.
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- Okay. -Yeah.
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Also still to come, Daniel Kaluuya, "Queen and Slim."
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Yeah.
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I really love Noah Jupe in "Honey Boy."
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- I know that's not happening, but... - Noah Jupe is so wonderful in "Honey Boy".
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Yeah.
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You know, in "Honey Boy" he's going up for lead and Shia's going up for supporting.
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As they should.
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A lot of people really like Marc Ruffalo in "Dark Waters."
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I think the problem there, are we really getting excited about this movie?
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Yeah.
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There's been some buzz, but again, it comes back to its such a crowded field.
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It is insane.
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Yeah.
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Insane. I think that right now my pick of the week, because I think he's the only person who I'm sure is getting nominated, is Adam Driver.
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I'm keeping an eye on Eddie Murphy though.
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I'm thinking, right now, I think it's Joaquin Phoenix.
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Mhmm.
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I think people are just so impressed by this performance.
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There's a part where people really wanted to love "The Joker".
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Then it came out, and there was all this hate for it, but there was never backlash for Joaquin.
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Never.
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It was always about his performance.
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So, I think right now he has the edge.
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One small thing.
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Yeah?
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When you bring me out, can you introduce me as Joker?
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So, that's this week's Pick of the Week.
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You can follow me on Twitter @jenelleriley.
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And you can follow me @marcmalkin.
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He doesn't need followers though, so.
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He's pretty set.
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I could always use followers.