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Translator: Michele Gianella Reviewer: Muriel de Meo
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I grew up in a house with domestic violence.
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Sometimes, as a child,
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we didn't know from day to day if our mother was going to live or die.
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If my birthmother - or my stepmother, afterwards - had money,
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they could have left and taken me with them.
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Or I'm certain
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the power dynamic in the house would have been different,
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as it would've been known,
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there would've been more respect
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knowing that they had the freedom, the options to leave.
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Freedom is what we'll buy ourselves, as a society,
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if we can implement a universal and unconditional basic income
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in the form of monthly cash payments going to every citizen.
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Do we really have freedom if we don't have options to choose,
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the option to say no to an unsafe environment,
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whether it be in the family, or the workplace,
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or against your own government?
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The means to protest, to stand up,
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or to walk away, or in some cases to run?
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Now, I've no regrets about how I was raised.
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I love my father, and I'm lucky to have two women I can call mother.
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We've done a lot of healing work to get to where we are today.
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But I'm really worried
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because I can see how financial pressures
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played a triggering and an enabling role in the violence.
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I'm very worried,
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because I'm seeing that job displacement
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is pushing an increasing number of families in Western countries
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into worse financial pressures than I went through.
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[Job Displacement]
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Technological job displacement
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is when the cost of your job, of your work,
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trends down to an unfeasible level,
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maybe because you're competing against machines or offshore labor,
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so much so that if you get fired, you can't find that job anywhere else.
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It no longer exists.
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Families, communities that are relying on your incomes
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start to shrink and are damaged,
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because in most cases, people whose jobs are displaced
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end up taking lower income work or not working at all.
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I'm here to tell you that technology is the brilliant child of capitalism.
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It created the middle class, but now it's destroying it.
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I think universal basic income
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is how we can preserve and expand the middle class,
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but only if we can come to see that technology is our shared inheritance.
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Most of human history was like "Game of Thrones."
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Most of us lived in miserable conditions,
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while a few of us hoarded all the wealth
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and anointed themselves with birthright privileges.
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The middle class was a creation
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of the technological advancements of the Industrial Revolution -
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just a blip in human history, very recent, very fragile -
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which chased people from low-income work to higher-income work
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allowing us the means, the income for some comforts,
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but more importantly,
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for the political power to shape governments
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to invest more in the needs of the common man.
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What we call the modern middle class was created during a period
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that economists are fond of calling "The Golden Age of Capitalism."
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This was a period when wages were growing together with productivity.
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Imagine that.
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The more businesses needed to sell, the more they needed to hire people
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to produce the things that they were making,
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that put upwards demand on wages,
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which meant people had more money to spend back into those businesses.
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This was also a period
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when the top one percent of us were actually seeing a decline in income
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every year after year, for decades in Western countries.
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Imagine that.
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The bigger the economy got,
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the more of those gains went went to the majority of us.
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Sounds fair, right?
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I believe it is this period of inclusive growth
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that has given us our idea that working hard will get you ahead.
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Because in that period, it did.
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For a brief period in human history,
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the majority of the gains from technological advancement
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were going to the majority of us.
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But what if the rise of the middle class is just a coincidence in time,
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a coincidence for when people were so essential
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to the work of delivering all these new technological advancements?
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[Coincidences?]
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I believe that we saw these coincidences start to break down
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around the early 1970s,
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shortly after mainframe computers were making their way
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into Western companies, corporations everywhere,
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as manufacturing robots were making their way onto factory floors
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shortly before, and with the advent, of personal computing.
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This period of time is called the great decoupling.
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The great decoupling that decoupled the value of human work from productivity.
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Clearly, humans were less valuable as computers could do more and more
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of the repetitive work that careers were made of.
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And much of the work we do is repetitive and routine.
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So it's not that over a period of decades that many people were fired,
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as businesses became more productive, but rather how many were never hired,
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which created the absence of that upwards pressure on wages
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we saw during the golden age.
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Technology created globalization,
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the global economy, the globalized supply chain,
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which also put downward pressure on wages
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because we couldn't complete with hundreds of millions
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and now billions of people around the world
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that can do the same work we can for less than can be lived off here.
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My father and uncle had their careers displaced
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in Ontario's automotive manufacturing parts sector
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shortly after China entered the scene in the mid-'90s.
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We couldn't compete with that, and the businesses that remained,
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the tool shops that remained after the carnage,
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were the ones that were managed to automate, to stay competitive.
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That's why during that period,
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six times more jobs were lost to automation than trade.
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But the globalization of today is beyond the reach of tariffs.
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The globalization of today is about online jobs.
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Even small businesses can hire virtual assistants in the Philippines
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for four dollars an hour.
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Businesses like mine would not have existed 25 years ago.
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We make income all over the world.
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We're completely remote, no offices, and because of that, we can hire anywhere.
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So half of my staff is employed in developing countries.
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Why? Because I can afford more people that way.
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[Unions Leverage Weakened]
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Unions lost their leverage
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because of the combination of automation and globalization together,
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and their unions were always pivotal in increasing wage growth.
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Now I'm really worried,
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because if you could look at the share of national income,
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the amount of the income produced every year in the United States -
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or in any country, any Western country's quite similar -
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you see the share going to the top one percent of us
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increasing year after year since the great decoupling.
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I'm a beneficiary of that as a member of the one percent,
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and this really bothers me.
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If you look at the green line, it's going down.
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The bottom half of us are making less and less and less
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of the share of national income every year.
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With that green line going down, we see a parallel line
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of decreased annual economic growth, a slowing of growth.
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We also see, I believe, a decrease in political power
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as governments no longer have to prioritize
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the needs of common men, of common people.
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So, it's not at all an exaggeration.
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If you draw those lines out a few decades into the future,
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I'm afraid to consider where that will lead us.
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The top one percent could be making 35 cents of every dollar,
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the bottom half of us could be making 6 cents.
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That's not capitalism anymore, folks - that's feudalism.
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That's right back to the Game of Thrones that we left.
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That's right back to there'll be
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a new global peasant class that has smartphones,
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but a new nobility that has all the power and shapes governments in their image.
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We should all be very concerned about this.
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[Artificial Intelligence]
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Artificial intelligence will just make it go faster,
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and no one is predicting the creation of a lot of high-paying jobs
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to replace, to create a new middle class to step into
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as in the golden age.
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In fact, many economists are saying
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we're going to have so many productivity enhancements,
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but we're going to have a lot more low-paying jobs.
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Frankly, it is this theory
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that explains the economics of the last 40 years.
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The middle class has been hollowing out.
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The world's top economists in the world
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are very concerned about the hollowing in middle class,
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and I'm able to show it to you in pictures.
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This is a study showing the City of Toronto between 1970 and 2005.
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In 1970, the yellow represents middle-class neighborhoods,
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the blue represents high-income neighborhoods,
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and the red is low-income neighborhoods.
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2005, you can see the hollowing in the middle class,
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mostly low-income neighborhoods.
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The middle class almost disappeared -
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they didn't go anywhere, they were displaced.
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And the blue-income neighborhoods got bigger,
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as of course there are more high-income jobs,
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but not enough programming jobs,
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nor can everyone be a programmer.
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What we see here, this pattern in Toronto,
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is replicated across the world,
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between cities -
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some cities have been on the losing end of automation and globalization -
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and between regions.
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It's funny -
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look at the blue, imagine you're thinking of the blue states,
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San Francisco, New York, LA, where all the brain power is going;
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and the red is the red states,
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how they've been on the losing end of automation and globalization,
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and they're angry.
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We can see the impact of that by seeing an increase in deaths of despair
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among white middle-aged people in the United States
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whose jobs have been displaced.
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The coincidences in time,
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when more high-income work was being created
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to replace low-income work,
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are starting to break down.
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I think a universal basic income is part of the solution,
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because it will preserve and in fact expand the middle class.
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Expand the middle class not in terms of us having two car garages,
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but things that matter,
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where everyone can have psychological safety,
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the ability to make long-term plans,
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the ability to afford healthy food for their children.
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We should just implement this basic income and then just wait it out.
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Wait it out as money is appearing in our bank accounts every month
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just enough to cover basic needs,
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provide us with that middle-class way of thinking,
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because eventually technology makes everything cheaper.
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Everything from the cost of food, transportation,
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pretty much consumer goods;
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it's already been getting cheaper over decades.
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We can all enjoy a middle-class way of life.
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And the existing middle class will also be preserved.
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Why? Because basic income is an economic stimulus.
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Those who have the least spend the most of the share of what they have.
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All that money goes right back into the economy,
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stimulating corporate revenue, stimulating job creation.
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We can have all this, but we need to see basic income
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not as a social program that helps people in poor circumstances,
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but rather a public utility that helps us all.
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How having a healthy economy is a need common to us all.
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We should see it as the water in the pipes,
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circulating money to keep our economy healthy for everyone,
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expanding the middle class and bringing wellbeing to everyone.
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So while the first golden age of capitalism was called that,
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in part because it created the middle class,
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this next evolution of capitalism may also be called the golden age.
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Why? Because we will have expanded the middle-class lifestyle for everyone.
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But only if we can come to see that technology is our shared inheritance.
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It's meant to uplift everyone.
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In 1930, the economist John Maynard Keynes -
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this is a man whose ideas
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basically created the golden age of capitalism -
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said that by the year 2030
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technological productivity should have been so great
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that by now we're all only working 15 hours a week.
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There's not much more work to do.
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He said we could enjoy this life of leisure.
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Well, how are we going to get there?
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Basic income will get us there.
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Why? Because if the economy in the future is creating all these low-income jobs,
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all these people could choose to work 15 hours a week
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with one of those