Subtitles section Play video
-
What are you going to eat for lunch tomorrow?
-
What are your plans for this weekend?
-
Where do you see yourself in five years?
-
Answering these questions requires looking into the future.
-
But when you make these predictions, what you're actually doing is accessing your memories.
-
Being able to accurately predict the future gives humans an evolutionary advantage.
-
I'm not talking about a fortune cookie or a horoscope that says your true love will find you next Tuesday.
-
I'm talking about the practical ability to anticipate when crops will be ready to harvest or to prepare for a meeting with your boss.
-
Planning beyond the present moment and even years into the future is indispensable to human life in society.
-
But how do we do it?
-
Researchers believe that we rearrange our memories of the past to put together a vision of what the future might look like.
-
They've discovered that memories and predictions take place in the same regions of the brain and appear to use the same underlying processes.
-
Scientists first learned about this connection by observing amnesia patients.
-
Not only were these patients unable to access their memories, but they also didn't have any idea of what they might do in the future.
-
More recently fMRI studies have allowed researchers to see into the brains of healthy people while they remembered the past and predicted the future.
-
The psychologist Carl Spooner observed that the activity in the brain during both tasks was almost completely overlapping.
-
Researchers have also found that as people age and start to develop memory loss, their ability to imagine the future declines as well.
-
This ability to envision moments in both the past and the future is known as mental time travel.
-
Mental time travel is different from just remembering facts.
-
It's about reliving scenes in your mind.
-
If you think about the last time you went to the beach your brain reconstructs the setting.
-
You feel the sunshine on your skin and the sand between your toes and you can smell the salt on the breeze.
-
In a similar way, when you imagine an event in your future, you're essentially pre-living it.
-
You construct a similar scene using details from your memory.
-
So the next time you plan a beach trip, you can imagine the feel of the sun in the sand before you've even packed your sunscreen.
-
Likewise, if you're imagining your future wedding, you'll probably cherry-pick elements from weddings you've been to as well as weddings you've seen on TV and movies or in magazines.
-
But the ability to predict the future using your memories does have one big disadvantage.
-
People often expect the future to be too much like the present.
-
Studies back up the conventional wisdom that if you go to the grocery store when you're hungry, you'll buy too much food, not realizing you won't always be this hungry.
-
Similarly, if you try to predict how you'll feel in the future about something, you're likely to be blinded by your current emotions.
-
For a vivid example of how future predictions are affected by the present, just watch an old sci-fi movie.
-
Take Back to the Future 2, which was made in 1989 and set in 2015.
-
It successfully predicted things like videoconferencing, drones, and facial recognition, but it assumed people would be still be using fax machines and pay phones.
-
Two technologies integral to life in the '80s which the filmmakers seemingly couldn't imagine a future without.
-
The future is always going to be full of surprises we can't predict.
-
But one thing's for sure, without our memories, we'd be totally in the dark.
-
This is You Are Here, a series about the science behind everyday life.
-
Tell us what topics you'd like us to discuss in the comments.
-
I'm Julie Beck, thanks for watching.