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  • Andrew Yang's popularity is clearly on the rise, but I'm not going to lie to you.

  • His odds for 2020 are long.

  • Still struggling to show up at 1% in the polls, he faces a steep uphill battle.

  • He is competing with a large field of experienced politicians.

  • That field is currently topped by Bernie Sandersprobably the most influential progressive in the country,

  • with decades of experience, and a powerful movement behind him.

  • And were he some how able to beat Sanders, to become President, Yang would still have

  • to topple Trump: an incumbent president running on a strong economy, and backed by an astoundingly

  • loyal following.

  • Facing all this, Andrew Yang has few assets in his arsenal.

  • He's not a career politician, or a famous billionaire.

  • He doesn't have the name-recognition, the donors, the staff, or the popular movement

  • required to become presidentat least not yet.

  • What he does have is an idea.

  • One that is so interesting it's gotten far more attention than a fringe candidate is

  • likely to expect.

  • One that has gotten him enough support that he will likely make past the DNC threshold

  • to appear in the democratic primary debates.

  • Yeah, and I'm going to be on the debate stage in June and July

  • The DNC has already reached out to my team.

  • Andrew Yang hopes his idea will be enough to make him the next president of the United

  • States.

  • Can he do it?

  • (#YangGang starts cheering)

  • Andrew Yang's platform includes support for medicare for all and changing our measures

  • for determining the health of the economy.

  • We need to get healthcare off the backs of businesses and families

  • And move to a single payer system Medicare for all

  • We have a series of bad numbers YES!!!!

  • GDP is one

  • I'm going to update the numbers so that--

  • YESSS!

  • YESSS!!!!

  • SO WE CAN KNOW WHATS GOING ON!!!!

  • Otherwise we can't (voice cracks) make wise decisions

  • Yeah...

  • Our life expectancy has declined for the last three years for the first time in 100 years

  • because of a surge in self-bang-bang and oopsie doses

  • How can you say an economy is healthy, when our people are not living?

  • It makes no--

  • I LITERALLY COULDN'T--

  • I DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT YOU THINK ON THE OTHER ISSUES...

  • (Yang doesn't like to hear that)

  • But the focus of his campaign is what he calls the Freedom Dividend.

  • It's his own spin on a Universal Basic Income.

  • The idea is simple: to give every American over the age of 18, regardless of income,

  • and without any kind of work requirement or other test, a thousand dollars per month.

  • Anyone can opt into the program.

  • The only exception being that those who are currently on welfare programs, food stamps

  • or disability would have to chose to lose their enrolment in those programs, or have

  • the costs of those benefits deducted from the 1000 dollars they would otherwise receive.

  • The idea of UBI may seem simple, but it's seductively positioned to maximize appeal

  • across the political spectrum.

  • The left can easily support the idea as a simple method to directly alleviate poverty.

  • The fact that it is given to everyone means the program will be resilient, and will not

  • stigmatize the poor.

  • But it's also hard to challenge for the right.

  • UBI does not really expand the size of government.

  • It has no risk of creating a bloated public bureaucracy.

  • The payout is lower than a full time job at minimum wage, and unlike many other government

  • assistance programs, there is no disincentive for those enrolled to work.

  • So, UBI is unlikely to create so-called 'welfare queens'.

  • UBI is also not a form of socialism, as Yang has argued:

  • UBI is capitalism where income does not start at zero.”

  • Yang has also answered the dreadedhow will you pay for it?” question.

  • Partly, the spending will come from the 500-600 billion we already spend on welfare and other

  • poverty alleviation programsthe ones that whose recipients would lose the costs of those

  • benefits from their 1000 per month.

  • Yang also expects to generate the same amount from new revue driven by economic growth as

  • a result of instituting the program.

  • He got this figure based on The Roosevelt Institute's numbers, which suggest the program

  • would grow the economy by 2.5 trillion.

  • Yang expects to tax about 500-600 billion from that.

  • Next, Yang expects that the program will cut 100-200 billion dollars in government spending

  • on issues like health care, incarceration and homelessness services, as some studies

  • have shown that poverty is a major driver of crime and illness (both physical and mental).

  • I think we can all agree that studies don't need to show that poverty is also a major

  • driver of homelessness.

  • Finally, Yang expects to collect around 800 billion dollars from a Value Added Tax, a

  • form of corporate tax that is particularly difficult for large businesses to avoid paying.

  • The tax is specifically aimed at corporations like Amazon, one that frequently avoids paying

  • taxes, but is expected to be a major beneficiary of automation, which many, including Yang,

  • consider to be a key reason why a UBI is necessary.

  • According to Yang's website:

  • Andrew Yang wants Universal Basic Income because we are experiencing the greatest technological

  • shift the world has ever seen.

  • By 2015, automation had already destroyed four million manufacturing jobs, and the smartest

  • people in the world now predict that a third of all working Americans will lose their job

  • to automation in the next 12 years.

  • Our current policies are not equipped to handle this crisis.

  • Even our most forward-thinking politicians are unprepared.

  • As technology improves, workers will be able to stop doing the most dangerous, repetitive,

  • and boring jobs.

  • This should excite us, but if Americans have no source of incomeno ability to pay for

  • groceries, buy homes, save for education, or start families with confidencethen the

  • future could be very dark.

  • Our labor participation rate now is only 62.7% – lower than it has been in decades, with

  • 1 out of 5 working-age men currently out of the workforce.

  • This will get much worse as self-driving cars and other technologies come online.”

  • UBI is often tied to automation, and embraced by the likes of Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk,

  • but the idea is by no means new.

  • The idea has gone by many different names over the years--basic income, guaranteed income,

  • negative income tax, mincome, and unconditional free moneybut its been advocated for, as

  • far back as the 60's by the likes of Martin Luther King and Richard Nixon.

  • The idea has, in fact, been tested in a variety of ways throughout the world.

  • Alaskans began receiving about ten percent of total petroleum revenues in 1976 through

  • the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend.

  • Finland did a pilot test of UBI with about 2,000 unemployed citizens.

  • A city in Manitoba, Canada gave its 8,000 residents a minimum income in the mid-1970s.

  • The city of Stockton, California is currently giving residents 500 dollars per month.

  • Several experiments have been conducted throughout the developing world, and there are plenty

  • of examples I haven't listed here.

  • So far, the signals are generally positive.

  • The Finnish test group self-reported higher levels of health and happiness, although,

  • partly because of how the government muddled the parameters of the experiment, the pilot

  • test did not indicate a statistically significant increase in employment for those on UBI, compared

  • to other government assistance programs.

  • The more substantial, but older Manitoba test indicated that the basic income could completely

  • eliminate poverty without creating a work disincentive.

  • Several experiments found reductions in hospitalizations and crime.

  • On the whole, I think its reasonable to expect that UBI would alleviate poverty, increase

  • happiness, reduce crime, create better health outcomes, and be, at worst, neutral when it

  • comes to employment rates.

  • Still, none of the experiments I have mentioned have been sufficient to establish specific,

  • definitive expectations of how a basic income would impact the US economy.

  • Compared to a program like Single Payer Health care, UBI is still relatively untested throughout

  • the world.

  • It seems reasonable to me to pick away a bit at the figures Andrew Yang gives for how he's

  • going to pay for the program through increased economic activity and decreased healthcare

  • and incarceration costs.

  • His numbers are fairly precise, and he supports them with just one evaluation: the Roosevelt

  • Institute's projections.

  • UBI could end up underperforming when it comes to these general economic changes.

  • At the same time, it could exceed all expectations.

  • The one thing that I think requires no grand economic evaluation or pilot test to conclude

  • is that Yang's freedom dividend would reduce inequality, as it's design directly redistributes

  • money from the wealthiest corporations through a VAT, and puts that money into the pockets

  • of everyday Americans.

  • That, in and of itself, may be enough to convince millions of Americans to support the program.

  • The idea has been polled, somewhat, with the American people.

  • A data for progress poll from the summer of 2018 found UBI to have net positive support

  • among people of color and the white working class.

  • Support for the program was shown to be high amongst young people but quite low amongst

  • older folks, for an overall negative support of -2% overall.

  • A poll from the fall of 2017, conducted by Northeastern University and Gallup, with about

  • double the sample size, found similar results, with a net support of negative -4%.

  • However, the support was a solid 65% amongst democrats.

  • It should be noted of course, these polls were done before Andrew Yang began advocating

  • for the idea in the media, independent and establishment, progressive and conservative.

  • The reason Trump is president is because we automated away four million manufacturing

  • jobs...

  • ...with Amazon sucking up 20 billion dollars of commerce every year, 30 percent of main

  • street stores are closing...

  • People talking about retraining coal miners to be software engineers

  • That makes no sense

  • My question is do we have to sit back and let this happen to the country?

  • Well, that's why I'm running for president

  • Under my plan everyone will receive a thousand bucks

  • It's the sweet spot bc it's enough to be impactful, but it's not so much that it will push people

  • out of the labor market

  • I don't know how much...

  • I can't do math...

  • (flabbergasted, but still condescending)

  • Do you have an agenda for black people?

  • ...It overlaps with my main one...

  • (Still UBI) If his appearances have been effective, its

  • quite likely support for UBI has gained traction.

  • If its is an idea you would like to support, however, it may seem hopeless, since the ascendency

  • of Yang to the white house remains an improbability, at least when it comes to 2020.

  • That said, electing a President Yang is not the only way to move toward UBI.

  • --If enough Americans support his campaign, and Yang gains a serious voice in the democratic

  • primaries, his central policy will no doubt become a significant point of discussion.

  • Americans would have a chance to consider the proposal seriously, and likely be polled

  • on the subject again and again.

  • Should polling indicate growing, majority approval, major candidates may be moved to

  • adopt it into their platform.

  • Think about the impact Bernie Sanders had on the 2016 Democratic platform, despite losing

  • the primary.

  • The truth is, I'm sure Yang would love to be president, but he's stated that he would

  • consider it a victory just to get the idea in front of the American people.

  • To accomplish his real objective, making UBI a mainstream idea, Yang only really needs

  • to get other candidates to adopt the idea into their platforms.

  • When it comes to this far more modest goal, Yang supporters are not likely to have a hopeless

  • answer to this question:

  • Can he do it?

  • Thanks for reading the captions.

  • If you know other languages, why not translate this video?

  • You will receive no reward except an internal feeling of being better than everyone else

  • you encounter.

Andrew Yang's popularity is clearly on the rise, but I'm not going to lie to you.

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ANDREW YANG - UBI and the 2020 Election

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    王惟惟 posted on 2019/04/28
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