Subtitles section Play video
-
It's the time of year for learning from mistakes.
-
Luckily, lots of people made lots of them in markets in 2018.
-
So what did we learn?
-
1. What goes up...
-
Yes, this is an obvious point, but it suddenly seemed to take a lot of investors by surprise, that markets can go down, as well as up.
-
Two big shocks in 2018 drove this home.
-
One in February, when the Vix index tracking expected volatility went haywire, delivering a heavy blow to the S&P 500 that fanned across other assets.
-
And one in October, sparked by a mix of higher interest rates in the US, and cracks in big tech.
-
The latter was initially written off as a blip, but recoveries through November and December have proven fleeting.
-
Brace for more volatility in 2019,which some investors have described as the year of the bull, the, bear and the kangaroo.
-
2. The hedges don't work.
-
So, it's OK, though, right?
-
When stocks and other so-called risk assets hit the skids, you can always fall back on government bonds and have currency, surely.
-
Well, not this year.
-
Correlations that typically hold fast have fallen apart and no one is quite sure why.
-
Government bonds, notably in the US, have dropped out of long-held ranges.
-
And the Swiss franc and yen, usually mechanical beneficiaries in times of stress, failed to climb.
-
This has been a nightmare for many hedge funds and other investors.
-
The most plausible explanation I've heard for this breakdown in reliable patterns is that the power in trading has shifted away from banks.
-
The muscle memory employed by traders on trading floors is just not there any more.
-
That leaves other funds and high-frequency traders to fill the gap.
-
And with fresh eyes, it's always been tough to see why the yen, for example, plays that role.
-
Easy fallbacks are just so 2017.
-
3. It's the politics, stupid.
-
Never have political consultants been in such high demand among investors.
-
Hedge funds that correctly predicted the election of a maverick new coalition government in Italy made a fortune on the subsequent collapse in Italian government bonds.
-
Turkish politics, no stranger to drama, generated a full-blown currency crisis.
-
The plot of the Brexit soap opera meanwhile, has become so baffling that many overseas investors are simply staying right out of sterling markets.
-
The smart money says sterling is heavily undervalued at this point, but until the politics clears up, it's impossible to put money behind that view.
-
4. From QE to QT.
-
And finally, after a decade of quantitative easing from central banks, we're shifting to quantitative tightening.
-
Turning off the stimulus taps, in other words.
-
Has the Fed raised rates too much already?
-
Will it hit the brakes?
-
How bumpy will the US landing be?
-
In Europe, investors almost unanimously believe the withdrawal of support will be smooth and well-managed.
-
With such widespread confidence, what could possibly go wrong next year?