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  • If the US or North Korea had a Facebook page, each country would change their status to

  • it's complicatednow.

  • It's not what we had as recently as 2017 when Trump was threatening to go to war over and

  • over again with North Korea.

  • They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.

  • Now they are not only on speaking terms but literally sitting in a room with each other.

  • We will have a terrific relationship.

  • I have no doubt.

  • Chairman Kim and I just signed a joint statement in which he reaffirmed his unwavering commitment

  • to complete denuclearization.

  • The problem with this is that Trump and North Korea have very different views about what

  • should be accomplished when you denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.

  • The US wants North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

  • North Korea wants the United States to stop isolating it diplomatically and stop cutting

  • it off from international markets.

  • In theory, there is the makings of a deal there.

  • For Trump, denuclearization means something called CVID: complete, verifiable, irreversible

  • denuclearization of North Korea.

  • They give up their nuclear weapons and the US will always be able to make sure that they

  • have gone away.

  • However, for North Korea, denuclearization of the Korean peninsula mean something completely

  • different.

  • It means, sure, North Korea gets rid of its nukes, but the US also withdrawals all its troops

  • from the Korean Peninsula and ends its alliance with South Korea.

  • This has been unacceptable to every American president in the past.

  • We will be stopping the war games, which will save us a tremendous amount of money, unless

  • and until we see that the future negotiation is not going along like it should.

  • What seems really good for North Korea is really bad by American standards.

  • There's just not a great middle ground that could actually roll back North Korea's nuclear

  • program.

  • No country with a nuclear program as advanced as North Korea's has ever denuclearized.

  • A 2017 estimate from the Defense Intelligence Agency concluded that North Korea probably

  • has up to 60 nuclear weapons.

  • It also has ballistic missiles that could potentially hit the American homeland and potentially

  • a nuclear weapon small enough to fit on one of those rockets.

  • National security adviser John Bolton floated an idea for dealing with North Korea that

  • he called,

  • the Libya model.

  • So this is to reference an agreement struck with the Bush administration by then Libyan

  • dictator Muammar Qaddafi to give up his nuclear program.

  • However, Qaddafi's program was way more limited.

  • He wasn't really even close to a bomb.

  • And, perhaps more to the point, about eight years after this agreement was struck in 2011

  • the US backed an uprising against Qaddafi which killed him.

  • To Kim, Libya is an example of what happens if you trust the United States too much.

  • It's an example of what happens if you give up your nuclear weapons.

  • The main reason they want them is to deter an attack.

  • Ideally, they want to deter any war from starting by making the war seem really scary and really

  • dangerous and really bloody.

  • Normalizing relations is something that I would expect to do, I would hope to do, when

  • everything is complete.

  • Normalization is a prize from North Korea's point of view.

  • It would mean a US embassy in Pyongyang, a North Korean embassy in Washington, ambassadors,

  • formal diplomatic receptions.

  • And like I'm saying this and you're probably imagining that sounds ridiculous and you're

  • right.

  • Because it's North Korea.

  • Unwavering commitment to the complete denuclearization

  • of the Korean peninsula. This is the document

  • that we just signed.

  • It's hard to imagine the endgame being some kind of big big deal.

  • What's more likely is nothing changes or things get worse again.

  • I think he's going to do these things.

  • I may be wrong.

  • I mean I may stand before you in 6 months and say, 'Hey, I was wrong.'

  • I don't know that I'll ever admit that, but I'll find some kind of an excuse.

If the US or North Korea had a Facebook page, each country would change their status to

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What does “denuclearization” mean?

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    Samuel posted on 2018/06/16
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