Placeholder Image

Subtitles section Play video

  • So there's a lot of valid concern these days

  • that our technology is getting so smart

  • that we've put ourselves on the path to a jobless future.

  • And I think the example of a self-driving car

  • is actually the easiest one to see.

  • So these are going to be fantastic for all kinds of different reasons.

  • But did you know that "driver" is actually the most common job

  • in 29 of the 50 US states?

  • What's going to happen to these jobs when we're no longer driving our cars

  • or cooking our food

  • or even diagnosing our own diseases?

  • Well, a recent study from Forrester Research

  • goes so far to predict that 25 million jobs

  • might disappear over the next 10 years.

  • To put that in perspective,

  • that's three times as many jobs lost in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

  • And it's not just blue-collar jobs that are at risk.

  • On Wall Street and across Silicon Valley, we are seeing tremendous gains

  • in the quality of analysis and decision-making

  • because of machine learning.

  • So even the smartest, highest-paid people will be affected by this change.

  • What's clear is that no matter what your job is,

  • at least some, if not all of your work,

  • is going to be done by a robot or software in the next few years.

  • And that's exactly why people like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates

  • are talking about the need for government-funded minimum income levels.

  • But if our politicians can't agree on things like health care

  • or even school lunches,

  • I just don't see a path where they'll find consensus

  • on something as big and as expensive as universal basic life income.

  • Instead, I think the response needs to be led by us in industry.

  • We have to recognize the change that's ahead of us

  • and start to design the new kinds of jobs

  • that will still be relevant in the age of robotics.

  • The good news is that we have faced down and recovered

  • two mass extinctions of jobs before.

  • From 1870 to 1970,

  • the percent of American workers based on farms fell by 90 percent,

  • and then again from 1950 to 2010,

  • the percent of Americans working in factories

  • fell by 75 percent.

  • The challenge we face this time, however, is one of time.

  • We had a hundred years to move from farms to factories,

  • and then 60 years to fully build out a service economy.

  • The rate of change today

  • suggests that we may only have 10 or 15 years to adjust,

  • and if we don't react fast enough,

  • that means by the time today's elementary-school students

  • are college-aged,

  • we could be living in a world that's robotic,

  • largely unemployed and stuck in kind of un-great depression.

  • But I don't think it has to be this way.

  • You see, I work in innovation,

  • and part of my job is to shape how large companies apply new technologies.

  • Certainly some of these technologies

  • are even specifically designed to replace human workers.

  • But I believe that if we start taking steps right now

  • to change the nature of work,

  • we can not only create environments where people love coming to work

  • but also generate the innovation that we need

  • to replace the millions of jobs that will be lost to technology.

  • I believe that the key to preventing our jobless future

  • is to rediscover what makes us human,

  • and to create a new generation of human-centered jobs

  • that allow us to unlock the hidden talents and passions

  • that we carry with us every day.

  • But first, I think it's important to recognize

  • that we brought this problem on ourselves.

  • And it's not just because, you know, we are the one building the robots.

  • But even though most jobs left the factory decades ago,

  • we still hold on to this factory mindset

  • of standardization and de-skilling.

  • We still define jobs around procedural tasks

  • and then pay people for the number of hours that they perform these tasks.

  • We've created narrow job definitions

  • like cashier, loan processor or taxi driver

  • and then asked people to form entire careers

  • around these singular tasks.

  • These choices have left us with actually two dangerous side effects.

  • The first is that these narrowly defined jobs

  • will be the first to be displaced by robots,

  • because single-task robots are just the easiest kinds to build.

  • But second, we have accidentally made it

  • so that millions of workers around the world

  • have unbelievably boring working lives.

  • (Laughter)

  • Let's take the example of a call center agent.

  • Over the last few decades, we brag about lower operating costs

  • because we've taken most of the need for brainpower

  • out of the person and put it into the system.

  • For most of their day, they click on screens,

  • they read scripts.

  • They act more like machines than humans.

  • And unfortunately, over the next few years,

  • as our technology gets more advanced,

  • they, along with people like clerks and bookkeepers,

  • will see the vast majority of their work disappear.

  • To counteract this, we have to start creating new jobs

  • that are less centered on the tasks that a person does

  • and more focused on the skills that a person brings to work.

  • For example, robots are great at repetitive and constrained work,

  • but human beings have an amazing ability

  • to bring together capability with creativity

  • when faced with problems that we've never seen before.

  • It's when every day brings a little bit of a surprise

  • that we have designed work for humans

  • and not for robots.

  • Our entrepreneurs and engineers already live in this world,

  • but so do our nurses and our plumbers

  • and our therapists.

  • You know, it's the nature of too many companies and organizations

  • to just ask people to come to work and do your job.

  • But if you work is better done by a robot,

  • or your decisions better made by an AI,

  • what are you supposed to be doing?

  • Well, I think for the manager,

  • we need to realistically think about the tasks that will be disappearing

  • over the next few years

  • and start planning for more meaningful, more valuable work that should replace it.

  • We need to create environments

  • where both human beings and robots thrive.

  • I say, let's give more work to the robots,

  • and let's start with the work that we absolutely hate doing.

  • Here, robot,

  • process this painfully idiotic report.

  • (Laughter)

  • And move this box. Thank you.

  • (Laughter)

  • And for the human beings,

  • we should follow the advice from Harry Davis at the University of Chicago.

  • He says we have to make it so that people don't leave too much of themselves

  • in the trunk of their car.

  • I mean, human beings are amazing on weekends.

  • Think about the people that you know and what they do on Saturdays.

  • They're artists, carpenters, chefs and athletes.

  • But on Monday, they're back to being Junior HR Specialist

  • and Systems Analyst 3.

  • (Laughter)

  • You know, these narrow job titles not only sound boring,

  • but they're actually a subtle encouragement

  • for people to make narrow and boring job contributions.

  • But I've seen firsthand that when you invite people to be more,

  • they can amaze us with how much more they can be.

  • A few years ago, I was working at a large bank

  • that was trying to bring more innovation into its company culture.

  • So my team and I designed a prototyping contest

  • that invited anyone to build anything that they wanted.

  • We were actually trying to figure out

  • whether or not the primary limiter to innovation

  • was a lack of ideas or a lack of talent,

  • and it turns out it was neither one.

  • It was an empowerment problem.

  • And the results of the program were amazing.

  • We started by inviting people to reenvision

  • what it is they could bring to a team.

  • This contest was not only a chance to build anything that you wanted

  • but also be anything that you wanted.

  • And when people were no longer limited by their day-to-day job titles,

  • they felt free to bring all kinds of different skills and talents

  • to the problems that they were trying to solve.

  • We saw technology people being designers, marketing people being architects,

  • and even finance people showing off their ability to write jokes.

  • (Laughter)

  • We ran this program twice,

  • and each time more than 400 people brought their unexpected talents to work

  • and solved problems that they had been wanting to solve for years.

  • Collectively, they created millions of dollars of value,

  • building things like a better touch-tone system for call centers,

  • easier desktop tools for branches

  • and even a thank you card system

  • that has become a cornerstone of the employee working experience.

  • Over the course of the eight weeks,

  • people flexed muscles that they never dreamed of using at work.

  • People learned new skills,

  • they met new people,

  • and at the end, somebody pulled me aside and said,

  • "I have to tell you,

  • the last few weeks has been one of the most intense,

  • hardest working experiences of my entire life,

  • but not one second of it felt like work."

  • And that's the key.

  • For those few weeks, people got to be creators and innovators.

  • They had been dreaming of solutions

  • to problems that had been bugging them for years,

  • and this was a chance to turn those dreams into a reality.

  • And that dreaming is an important part of what separates us from machines.

  • For now, our machines do not get frustrated,

  • they do not get annoyed,

  • and they certainly don't imagine.

  • But we, as human beings --

  • we feel pain,

  • we get frustrated.

  • And it's when we're most annoyed and most curious

  • that we're motivated to dig into a problem and create change.

  • Our imaginations are the birthplace of new products, new services,

  • and even new industries.

  • I believe that the jobs of the future

  • will come from the minds of people

  • who today we call analysts and specialists,

  • but only if we give them the freedom and protection that they need to grow

  • into becoming explorers and inventors.

  • If we really want to robot-proof our jobs,

  • we, as leaders, need to get out of the mindset

  • of telling people what to do

  • and instead start asking them what problems they're inspired to solve

  • and what talents they want to bring to work.

  • Because when you can bring your Saturday self to work on Wednesdays,

  • you'll look forward to Mondays more,

  • and those feelings that we have about Mondays

  • are part of what makes us human.

  • And as we redesign work for an era of intelligent machines,

  • I invite you all to work alongside me

  • to bring more humanity to our working lives.

  • Thank you.

  • (Applause)

So there's a lot of valid concern these days

Subtitles and vocabulary

Operation of videos Adjust the video here to display the subtitles

B1 US TED people human job robot innovation

【TED】David Lee: Why jobs of the future won't feel like work (Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee)

  • 66 13
    Zenn posted on 2017/11/03
Video vocabulary