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  • If you go on the TED website,

  • you can currently find there

  • over a full week of TEDTalk videos,

  • over 1.3 million

  • words of transcripts

  • and millions of user ratings.

  • And that's a huge amount of data.

  • And it got me wondering:

  • If you took all this data

  • and put it through statistical analysis,

  • could you reverse engineer a TEDTalk?

  • Could you create

  • the ultimate TEDTalk?

  • (Laughter) (Applause)

  • And also, could you create

  • the worst possible TEDTalk

  • that they would still let you get away with?

  • To find this out, I looked at three things:

  • I looked at the topic that you should choose,

  • I looked at how you should deliver it

  • and the visuals onstage.

  • Now, with the topic: There's a whole range of topics you can choose,

  • but you should choose wisely,

  • because your topic strongly correlates

  • with how users will react to your talk.

  • Now, to make this more concrete,

  • let's look at the list of top 10 words

  • that statistically stick out

  • in the most favorite TEDTalks

  • and in the least favorite TEDTalks.

  • So if you came here

  • to talk about how French coffee

  • will spread happiness in our brains,

  • that's a go.

  • (Laughter) (Applause)

  • Whereas, if you wanted to talk about

  • your project involving

  • oxygen, girls, aircraft --

  • actually, I would like to hear that talk, (Laughter)

  • but statistics say it's not so good.

  • Oh, well.

  • If you generalize this,

  • the most favorite TEDTalks are those

  • that feature topics we can connect with,

  • both easily and deeply,

  • such as happiness, our own body,

  • food, emotions.

  • And the more technical topics,

  • such as architecture, materials and, strangely enough, men,

  • those are not good topics to talk about.

  • How should you deliver your talk?

  • TED is famous for keeping

  • a very sharp eye on the clock,

  • so they're going to hate me

  • for revealing this, because, actually,

  • you should talk as long as they will let you. (Laughter)

  • Because the most favorite TEDTalks

  • are, on average, over 50 percent longer

  • than the least favorite ones.

  • And this holds true for all ranking lists on TED.com

  • except if you want to have a talk

  • that's beautiful, inspiring or funny.

  • Then, you should be brief. (Laughter) But other than that,

  • talk until they drag you off the stage.

  • (Laughter)

  • Now, while ...

  • (Applause)

  • While you're pushing the clock, there's a few rules to obey.

  • I found these rules out by comparing the statistics

  • of four-word phrases

  • that appear more often in the most favorite TEDTalks

  • as opposed to the least favorite TEDTalks.

  • I'll give you three examples.

  • First of all, I must, as a speaker,

  • provide a service to the audience and talk about what I will give you,

  • instead of saying what I can't have.

  • Secondly, it's imperative

  • that you do not cite The New York Times.

  • (Laughter)

  • And finally, it's okay for the speaker -- that's the good news --

  • to fake intellectual capacity.

  • If I don't understand something, I can just say, "etc., etc."

  • You'll all stay with me.

  • It's perfectly fine.

  • (Applause)

  • Now, let's go to the visuals.

  • The most obvious visual thing on stage is the speaker.

  • And analysis shows if you want to be

  • among the most favorite TED speakers,

  • you should let your hair grow a little bit longer than average,

  • make sure you wear your glasses and be slightly more dressed-up

  • than the average TED speaker.

  • Slides are okay, though you might consider going for props.

  • And now the most important thing,

  • that is the mood onstage.

  • Color plays a very important role.

  • Color closely correlates

  • with the ratings that talks get on the website.

  • (Applause)

  • For example, fascinating talks

  • contain a statistically high amount

  • of exactly this blue color, (Laughter)

  • much more than the average TEDTalk.

  • Ingenious TEDTalks, much more this green color,

  • etc., et.

  • (Laughter) (Applause)

  • Now, personally, I think

  • I'm not the first one who has done this analysis,

  • but I'll leave this

  • to your good judgment.

  • So, now it's time to put it all together

  • and design the ultimate TEDTalk.

  • Now, since this is TEDActive,

  • and I learned from my analysis

  • that I should actually give you something,

  • I will not impose the ultimate

  • or worst TEDTalk on you,

  • but rather give you a tool to create your own.

  • And I call this tool the TEDPad.

  • (Laughter)

  • And the TEDPad is a matrix

  • of 100 specifically selected,

  • highly curated sentences

  • that you can easily piece together to get your own TEDTalk.

  • You only have to make one decision,

  • and that is: Are you going to use the white version

  • for very good TEDTalks,

  • about creativity, human genius?

  • Or are you going to go with a black version,

  • which will allow you to create really bad TEDTalks,

  • mostly about blogs,

  • politics and stuff?

  • So, download it and have fun with it.

  • Now I hope you enjoy the session.

  • I hope you enjoy designing your own

  • ultimate and worst possible TEDTalks.

  • And I hope some of you will be inspired for next year

  • to create this, which I really want to see.

  • Thank you very much.

  • (Applause) Thanks.

If you go on the TED website,

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【TED】Sebastian Wernicke: Lies, damned lies and statistics (about TEDTalks) (Lies, damned lies and statistics (about TEDTalks))

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    Zenn posted on 2017/02/02
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