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  • Dollar weakness, global growth and oil's rise are great for emerging markets,

  • but Mexico is beginning to look like a worry.

  • Donald Trump has just announced tariffs aimed mainly at China and South Korea,

  • but it is Mexico, which trades more than 80% of its exports to the US,

  • that is particularly vulnerable to trade tensions.

  • So why is the Mexican Peso the second best currency performer of the year?

  • Do investors think those old Donald Trump threats to build that famous border wall

  • and tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement are just bluff?

  • NAFTA renegotiation talks resumed on Sunday and there are reasons for investors to bet against their collapse,

  • not least the risk to US jobs.

  • But, with a presidential election in Mexico due in July,

  • those talks could last most of the year.

  • That election, however, has its own risks.

  • The end of NAFTA and victory for populist candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador,

  • who leads in the opinion polls could send the Peso toward record lows.

  • And there are ripple effects.

  • One analysts says China and other Asian countries benefit from NAFTA by exporting products to Mexico,

  • that are then exported to the US.

  • So the US now wants amendments that would require at least half of vehicle parts to come from America.

  • Investors flip-flopped in 2017 on the Peso,

  • a currency which moved by at least 1% in either direction on 36 days in the last 12 months.

  • Another big move lower came on Tuesday.

  • Get used to Peso volatility.

Dollar weakness, global growth and oil's rise are great for emerging markets,

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Get used to Mexican peso volatility | Short View

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    李依庭   posted on 2018/01/25
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