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Sterling took a knock today after new research from YouGov suggested
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that the conservatives could fail to win an overall majority
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in the UK's June the 8th general election.
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The pollsters' findings caught the market's attention
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when they were released during Asian trade,
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and the pressure stayed on the pound for much of the European morning
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by enough for it to fall under its closing level on April the 18th,
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the day Theresa May called the election.
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But the pound pared its losses as a more nuanced view of the research emerged
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and the less dramatic findings of other polls were factored into investors' thinking.
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Sterling fought back from its low point under $1.28,
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back above that level, leaving it steady overall on the session.
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Analysts currently agreed that the importance of UK politics
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as the main near term influence on the currency, is difficult to overstate.
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During the campaign, the pound has generally risen with the poll ratings of the government,
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and come under pressure when there's a perception that the election races tightened.
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The turbulence leaves the pound short of its recent high of $1.30,
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which came when expectations of a bigger conservative majority peaked.
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Don't forget, the pound was trading at over $1.48 before the Brexit vote last year.
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While that valuation is a distant memory,
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it does look as if investors will need to stay tuned into UK politics
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after the labor party's strong campaign, and significant fight back in the polls.
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The longer term outlook for the pound will, of course,
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be defined by the makeup of the next government,
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and what investors think that will mean for
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the kind of Brexit agreement it will reach with the EU.
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But before the polling that really matters, at the ballot box on June the 8th,
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there is likely to be further volatility ahead.