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  • Guys, we have an issue.

  • (Laughter)

  • Growth is fading away, and it's a big deal.

  • Our global economy stops growing.

  • And it's not new.

  • Growth has actually declined for the last 50 years.

  • If we continue like this, we need to learn

  • how to live in a world with no growth in the next decade.

  • This is scary because when the economy doesn't grow,

  • our children don't get better lives.

  • What's even scarier is that when the pie does not grow,

  • each of us get a smaller piece.

  • We're then ready to fight for a bigger one.

  • This creates tensions and serious conflicts.

  • Growth matters a lot.

  • If we look at the history of growth,

  • times of big growth have always been fueled

  • by big manufacturing revolutions.

  • It happened three times, every 50-60 years.

  • The steam engine in the middle of the 19th century,

  • the mass-production model in the beginning of the 20th century --

  • thanks, Mr. Ford.

  • And the first automation wave in the 1970s.

  • Why did these manufacturing revolutions

  • create huge growth in our economies?

  • Because they have injected huge productivity improvement.

  • It's rather simple:

  • in order to grow, you need to be producing more,

  • putting more into our economy.

  • This means either more labor or more capital or more productivity.

  • Each time, productivity has been the growth lever.

  • I'm here today to tell you

  • that we are on the verge of another huge change,

  • and that this change, surprisingly enough,

  • is going to come from manufacturing, again.

  • It will get us out of our growth slump

  • and it will change radically the way globalization has been shaped

  • over the last decade.

  • I'm here to tell you about the amazing fourth manufacturing revolution

  • that is currently underway.

  • It's not as if we've done nothing with manufacturing

  • since the last revolution.

  • Actually, we've made some pretty lame attempts

  • to try to revitalize it.

  • But none of them have been the big overhaul

  • we really need to get us growing again.

  • For example, we've tried to relocate our factories offshore

  • in order to reduce cost and take advantage of cheap labor.

  • Not only did this not inspire productivity,

  • but it only saved money for a short period of time,

  • because cheap labor didn't stay cheap for long.

  • Then, we've tried to make our factories larger

  • and we specialized them by product.

  • The idea was that we can make a lot of one product

  • and stockpile it to be sold with demand.

  • This did help productivity for a while.

  • But it introduced a lot of rigidities in our supply chain.

  • Let's take fashion retail.

  • Traditional clothing companies

  • have built offshore, global, rigid supply chains.

  • When fast-fashion competitors like Zara

  • started replenishing their stocks faster

  • from two collections a year to one collection a month,

  • none of them has been able to keep up with the pace.

  • Most of them are in great difficulties today.

  • Yet, with all of their shortcomings,

  • those are the factories we know today.

  • When you open the doors,

  • they look the same as they did 50 years ago.

  • We've just changed the location, the size, the way they operate.

  • Can you name anything else that looks the same

  • as it did 50 years ago?

  • It's crazy.

  • We've made all the tweaks to the model that we could,

  • and now we hit its limits.

  • After all of our attempts to fix the manufacturing model failed,

  • we thought growth could come from elsewhere.

  • We turned to the tech sector --

  • there's been quite a lot of innovations there.

  • Just to name one: the Internet.

  • We hoped it could produce growth.

  • And indeed, it changed our lives.

  • It made big waves in the media, the service, the entertainment spaces.

  • But it hasn't done much for productivity.

  • Actually, what's surprising is that productivity is on the decline

  • despite all of those innovation efforts.

  • Imagine that -- sitting at work, scrolling through Facebook,

  • watching videos on YouTube has made us less productive.

  • Weird.

  • (Laughter)

  • This is why we are not growing.

  • We failed at reinventing the manufacturing space,

  • and large technological innovations have played away from it.

  • But what if we could combine those forces?

  • What if the existing manufacturing and large technological innovation

  • came together to create the next big manufacturing reinvention.

  • Bingo!

  • This is the fourth manufacturing revolution,

  • and it's happening right now.

  • Major technologies are entering the manufacturing space,

  • big time.

  • They will boost industrial productivity by more than a third.

  • This is massive, and it will do a lot in creating growth.

  • Let me tell you about some of them.

  • Have you already met advanced manufacturing robots?

  • They are the size of humans,

  • they actually collaborate with them,

  • and they can be programmed

  • in order to perform complex, non-repetitive tasks.

  • Today in our factories, only 8 percent of the tasks are automated.

  • The less complex, the more repetitive ones.

  • It will be 25 percent in 10 years.

  • It means that by 2025,

  • advanced robots will complement workers

  • to be, together, 20 percent more productive,

  • to manufacture 20 percent more outputs,

  • to achieve 20 percent additional growth.

  • This isn't some fancy, futuristic idea.

  • These robots are working for us right now.

  • Last year in the US, they helped Amazon prepare and ship all the products

  • required for Cyber Monday,

  • the annual peak of online retail.

  • Last year in the US,

  • it was the biggest online shopping day of the year and of history.

  • Consumers spent 3 billion dollars on electronics that day.

  • That's real economic growth.

  • Then there's additive manufacturing, 3D printing.

  • 3D printing has already improved plastic manufacturing

  • and it's now making its way through metal.

  • Those are not small industries.

  • Plastic and metals represent 25 percent

  • of global manufacturing production.

  • Let's take a real example.

  • In the aerospace industry,

  • fuel nozzles are some of the most complex parts to manufacture,

  • for one reason:

  • they are made up of 20 different parts

  • that need to be separately produced

  • and then painstakingly assembled.

  • Aerospace companies are now using 3D printing,

  • which allows them to turn those 20 different parts

  • into just one.

  • The results?

  • 40 percent more productivity,

  • 40 percent more output produced, 40 percent more growth

  • for this specific industry.

  • But actually, the most exciting part of this new manufacturing revolution

  • goes much beyond productivity.

  • It's about producing better, smarter products.

  • It's about scale customization.

  • Imagine a world where you can buy the exact products you want

  • with the functionalities you need,

  • with the design you want,

  • with the same cost and lead time

  • as a product that's been mass produced,

  • like your car, or your clothes or your cell phone.

  • The new manufacturing revolution makes it possible.

  • Advanced robots can be programmed

  • in order to perform any product configuration

  • without any setup time or ramp up.

  • 3D printers instantaneously produce any customized design.

  • We are now able to produce a batch of one product, your product,

  • at the same cost and lead time as a batch of many.

  • Those are only a few examples of the manufacturing revolution at play.

  • Not only will manufacturing become more productive,

  • it will also become more flexible,

  • and those were exactly the elements of growth that we are missing.

  • But actually, there are even some bigger implications

  • for all of us when manufacturing will find its way back into the limelight.

  • It will create a huge macroeconomic shift.

  • First, our factories will be relocated into our home markets.

  • In the world of scale customization,

  • consumer proximity is the new norm.

  • Then, our factories will be smaller, agile.

  • Scale does not matter anymore, flexibility does.

  • They will be operating on a multi-product, made-to-order basis.

  • The change will be drastic.

  • Globalization will enter a new era.

  • The East-to-West trade flows

  • will be replaced by regional trade flows.

  • East for East, West for West.

  • When you think about that,

  • the old model was pretty much insane.

  • Piling up stocks, making products travel the whole world

  • before they reach their end consumers.

  • The new model, producing just next to the consumer market,

  • will be much cleaner, much better for our environment.

  • In mature economies, manufacturing will be back home,

  • creating more employment,

  • more productivity and more growth.

  • Good news, isn't it?

  • But here's the thing with growth --

  • it does not come automatically.

  • Mature economies will have to seize it.

  • We'll have to massively re-train our workforce.

  • In most countries, like in my country, France,

  • we've told our children that manufacturing had no future.

  • That it was something happening far away.

  • We need to reverse that

  • and teach manufacturing again at university.

  • Only the countries that will boldly transform

  • will be able to seize this growth.

  • It's also a chance for developing economies.

  • Of course China and other emerging economies

  • won't be the factory of the world anymore.

  • Actually, it was not a sustainable model in the long term,

  • as those countries are becoming richer.

  • Last year, it was already as expensive to produce in Brazil

  • as to produce in France.

  • By 2018, manufacturing costs in China will be on par with the US.

  • The new manufacturing revolution

  • will accelerate the transition of those emerging economies

  • towards a model driven by domestic consumption.

  • And this is good,

  • because this is where growth will be created.

  • In the next five years,

  • the next billion consumers in China will inject more growth in our economies

  • than the top five European markets together.

  • This fourth manufacturing revolution is a chance for all of us.

  • If we play it right,

  • we'll see sustainable growth in all of our economies.

  • This means more wealth distributed to all of us

  • and a better future for our children.

  • Thank you.

  • (Applause)

Guys, we have an issue.

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B1 TED manufacturing growth productivity revolution percent

【TED】Olivier Scalabre: The next manufacturing revolution is here (The next manufacturing revolution is here | Olivier Scalabre)

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    Bruce Lee posted on 2017/04/13
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