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On June 23rd, 2016 residents of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union.
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So, what happens now?
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Well, to be honest, we don’t know. This is absolutely unprecedented. This is as if
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Texas actually managed to secede from the United States.
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So far, there have been several immediate effects. First, within hours of the vote,
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the UK’s Prime Minister, David Cameron, announced his resignation.
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Cameron supported the push to stay part of the EU, while his likely replacement, Conservative
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former London Mayor, Boris Johnson, pushed to leave, calling Brexit a “glorious opportunity”.
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But so far, things have been far from glorious. Since the vote, the British pound has collapsed
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in value, dropping to levels unseen in the last thirty years, and threatening to drop
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below the dollar, which has apparently never happened before. The Euro, too saw a steep,
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but less severe drop. When the London Stock Exchange opened the morning after the vote,
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the top 100 companies had collectively dropped more than 500 points, the largest fall since
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the 2008 economic crisis. And despite the dollar rising in response, the Dow Jones stock
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market index dropped more than 600 points, its worst day in five years.
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And although the stocks have slightly recovered following the initial panic, the future of
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the UK’s economy does not look bright. London is the most important financial center in
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Europe, and financial markets have accounted for 10% of the UK’s GDP. But by leaving
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the EU, the UK will no longer be party to the EU’s financial regulations, making it
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impossible to rely on for financial investment until new regulations are established.
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Many economists say that this will significantly damage the UK and EU economies. In one scenario
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proposed by the International Monetary Fund, by 2017 Britain will fall into a recession,
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and unemployment could hit 7% by the following year, coupled with severe inflation. Although,
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as a result of the pound being cheaper, trade will likely rise, although that’s not necessarily
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worth it for UK residents.
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And while we’ve talked about other countries following the UK’s example of leaving the
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EU, one unexpected result from the referendum showed that the majority of Scotland voted
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to stay, as opposed to the rest of the UK. This is because when Scotland held their own
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vote to leave the UK back in 2014, many agreed to stay under the assumption that the UK would
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remain part of the EU. Now that that’s no longer the case, it would be unfathomable
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for Scotland not to hold a second referendum, and it’s likely they’d finally gain their
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independence. Similarly, UK controlled Northern Ireland is already discussing unification
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with the rest of Ireland, nearly a century after their division.
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So, the question is, how did this all happen? Why would the UK vote for something with such
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negative consequences, that nearly all polls showed wouldn’t happen? In a nutshell, age.
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75% of 18- to 24-year-olds voted to stay, compared to less than 40% of those over 65.
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Some have referred to the results as the older generation voting for a future that the younger
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generation doesn’t want. Some suggest that older voters were swayed by arguments that
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there would be money available for their health care, and that it would help restrict immigration.
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Meanwhile, many youth voters hoped to stay and reap the same benefits as their parents,
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such as free travel throughout Europe and greater educational and economic opportunity.
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We spoke with several people living in the United Kingdom to get their take on the situation.
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Tom, 24, London it’s a sense of shock, but also recognizing
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that the country is extremely divided.
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Liam, 24, Manchester To be honest I’m a might heartbroken about
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it all. It feels like a bit of my national identity has been taken away from me when
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I voted against it.
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Shini Somara, Ph.D Science and Technology reporter, BBC, London
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I think that now that we're out of the EU it doesn't stop continuing to be a very united
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kingdom.
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Geraldine Jowett, Ph.D candidate, UK 3:08 The overwhelming consensus I always have
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felt was certain of betrayal from older generations for having voted this way when they probably
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won’t have to live with the repercussions in the same way that we will.3:23
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Neil Mitra, business owner, Remain, London This is really going to be a choppy couple
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of years rough couple of years.
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Although the referendum has passed, it is not an immediate process. The vote triggers
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Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, and could take as long as two years to actually
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break away. Already, UK residents are calling for a second referendum. But the immediate
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effects are devastating, and there is no question that both the United Kingdom and the European
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Union will be changed forever.