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  • Furlow has been an absolute God centers.

  • It's meant that we've actually not had to let anyone go it all.

  • It's gonna be a while before we actually turn to normal business.

  • The sharp end of a distressed economy presenting dilemmas for a chance that are facing whether he likes it or not in two directions in his budget next week, Rishi Soon Act will continue along the current path by extending support unprecedented in modern piece time for the economy, which shrank by 9.9% last year.

  • A helping hand that will last at least until locked down, ends in mid summer.

  • But the chancellor will signal tentative moves in a different direction as he sets out a path to bring down the deficit.

  • Tax rises could be on the way with corporation tax.

  • Top of the list mixed messages for businesses trying to chart a way through the pandemic.

  • We don't feel certain we don't know what's going to happen in the future.

  • We don't know where are you, where we'll be in six weeks time, how much work we've got if you increase corporation tax if we were so lucky is to make a profit we couldn't then, um, improve the business on May help the business grow.

  • That would be a disaster for us.

  • We need to reinvest in the business, and we need the government to help us.

  • A busy on covitz Secure garment factory floor, which has weathered the past year even if the pandemic eases over the summer, there's a clear message from this fashion business to Richie Soon AC go easy on balancing the books, stark warnings to a fiscally conservative chancellor who never imagined that he would be presiding over such extraordinary levels off state support.

  • He accepted the need for that, but on the basis that it would be time limited.

  • The record levels of borrowing, which have seen the UK rack up wartime levels of debt as the chancellor spends nearly £300 billion in propping up the economy, are keeping Treasury officials awake at night.

  • But low interest rates allow a cautious approach.

  • We are gonna be living with much higher debt for a long period.

  • That's easy at the moment because interest rates a solo, actually spending less on their interest than ever before.

  • But that doesn't mean that the debt in the long run might not be a worry.

  • We don't know if interest rates are always going to be that low on.

  • We've got lots of pressures coming down the road.

  • Aging population more and more spending on health, social care, all those sorts of things.

  • So absolutely we shouldn't be raising taxes at the moment.

  • The best way of getting the debt down is for the economy to grow fast.

  • But at some point it would be astonishing, given Theoden inal pressures that we're facing on public spending if we don't have some more tax at some point, Rishi Soon Act faces an unlikely alliance warning of the dangers of tax rises.

  • Today we do face very different circumstances piling, say, tax increases on top of that before you even opened up, the economy wouldn't make any sense of tools in the blue corner.

  • Ah, former conservative prime minister speaks out if I want that on in the red corner.

  • A labor leader arguing against possible Tory tax rises now is not the time for tax rises for families for businesses.

  • Final touches after elaborate preparations on a finished product, ready for what is a very uncertain market.

  • Mhm, Nick what We're joining me now.

  • David Gorka, Conservative Treasury Ministry, from 2010 to 2017 on Russian are a Ali Labor MP and member of the Treasury Select Committee.

  • Good evening to both of you.

  • First of all, David got Would it be a mistake for the chancellor to raise corporation tax?

  • Yes, I think it would be, I think vessel.

  • There is a timing issue, and I I agree with those who said we don't need to rush into tax increases, But I do think in the longer run we will need to raise Maurin tax.

  • The problem is that corporation tax is economically one of the more damaging ways in which we could do so.

  • In the end, of course, allow taxes are paid by people.

  • Whatever the political convenience of going with corporation tax, it is a tax essentially on business investment on when business investment could be very mobile, it could go where it once we have to compete for it, and we have to be competitive on that front on the consequences in the long term is that we won't get the business investment that we would otherwise do that won't drive up productivity and we won't be as prosperous countries we would be.

  • So I think taxes will have todo where they Sorry David got you say it's damaging.

  • But the fact is is quite an easy hit in terms of a single percentage point.

  • Raises £3.3 billion.

  • Well, you're right.

  • There is a political case for going with corporation tax.

  • It doesn't mean, however, that that's there's an economic case on.

  • I can see why the chancellor might be tempted by it.

  • But if we're looking at the long term prosperity of this country, if we want to put the economics ahead of the politics, I think you'd stay clear of corporation tax.

  • There are other taxes that would be less damaging.

  • Thio economic growth.

  • Thio.

  • That's why.

  • Because But you know all about cutting public services, there's nothing there.

  • Is that a cut?

  • I, to be honest, I don't think there there is very much.

  • Of course, you've got to keep you know you've got to get value for money for how you spend your, uh, expenditure.

  • But there are substantial pressures on public spending in the years ahead, so I I do think that tax is gonna have to bear the burden here.

  • It's just a question if we're going to have a very high tax burden, which by historic standards we are.

  • We need to be intelligent as to how we raise that money and ensure that we don't raise that money in a way that limits are productive, capability original.

  • Really?

  • You know, Keir Starmer is not.

  • We understand in favor of raising corporation tax.

  • It will be interesting that labor outflank the Tories on the right and joins up with David Davis and Iain Duncan Smith on this Look, it's not about whether who you join forces with.

  • It's about what's right for the country, and we're not out of the woods yet.

  • We haven't even come out of lock down.

  • And if if businesses a taxed prematurely, which this would be, this would be a premature tax increase on businesses that are employing people.

  • We need them to thrive and survive on.

  • We need them to employ more people so we can grow our way out of this crisis as much as possible Now.

  • That's not to say that we shouldn't have a conversation about taxation.

  • We do need to have an honest conversation with the British people about how we rebuild our country after the biggest crisis since the Second World War.

  • But to do that now to introduce taxes on businesses now and choke off growth and create more potentially much more unemployment, especially when people go off the furlough program when certain sectors are really struggling hospitality, tourism and many other sectors that would be deeply, deeply damaging for our country.

  • And I think that the politics David's right about the politics dominating over the economics and national interest here, the chance has got his eye on the election cycle rather than what's right for the country and what's right for businesses and employers, employees.

  • Stella Creasy, As you know, a big supporter of Keir Starmer says It's right that we look at corporation tax and actually indeed capital gains tax and ask how and when were those with the broadest shoulders can contribute a bit more of the task of rebuilding our nation.

  • You know what increase in corporation tax would labor?

  • Where are with the not well look, the question is when you tax if you if you look at the amount of we've got to pay back 400 billion by the end of this year.

  • After the Second World War, it took a very long time to pay off the costs incurred during the war.

  • We need to think about a very comprehensive way in which we rebuild our society, our economy, our national health service, with the aging population with intergenerational inequality, so still is absolutely right about making sure that those with the broadest shoulders pay the mostest and contribute the most.

  • As we come out of this crisis, The question is, when should we do that?

  • And I don't think it should happen for at least another couple of years.

  • In fact, and most of the evidence most of the experts and and also the IMF and the C.

  • D and other countries that many other countries looking at this and very few people are saying start taxing businesses right now.

  • Start increasing.

  • So David got the alternative?

  • Have not corporation tax.

  • Do you think Boris Johnson should, uh, cut off the cast iron guarantee he made in the Tory manifesto in 2019?

  • We will not raise the rate of income tax.

  • We will not raise V A T or national insurance should that still stand.

  • I don't think each good I do anything particularly sensible pledged to make it the time, but even accepting that it was made in good faith at that point.

  • The circumstances are so changed, the challenges that we face in terms of the public finances are that much more difficult.

  • I think the government would be entitled to say that this is what we said at the time.

  • We intended to one of that, but circumstances have changed and you look at those three taxes that you've mentioned Kirsty.

  • They constitute 64% of all government revenue.

  • And if the government is serious about trying to find substantial sums in taxation in due course, not for a year or two, but in due course to to close off the ability to do very much with those three taxes makes the task that much more difficult on could result in us, you know, increasing taxes in a way which is sub optimal and constrains our ability to attract business investment in the years ahead.

  • Russian era Ali, you've talked about the pandemic, offering us a chance to make a radical reset Muchas beverage after the Second World war.

  • You're imposing an increase on business taxation at the moment.

  • So do you also support a freeze on personal allowances?

  • Look what I What I'm saying is that it's right now.

  • It would be the wrong move to start start taxing people or businesses.

  • We need to stimulate our economy.

  • We need to grow our economy for the foreseeable future.

  • And the other issue is we still don't know whether these new variants could undermine the vaccination effort and could lead Thio retrenchment in terms of return, returning to some further restrictions even if we ease out off these restrictions now.

  • So there are big unknown still for our economy and our country on.

  • That's why what I would say is that the government actually needs to use this budget to support businesses, support people back into work next week.

  • Instead off looking at taxes and freezing personal allowances.

  • We need to support people we need to support people at the end of what has been the most appalling set of circumstances.

  • Over 220,000 people have died on our NHS has been on its knees thanks to in part because of the austerity of the last, largely because of the austerity of the last decade.

  • The government needs to learn the lessons of the last decade in terms of leave.

  • Thank you very much.

  • Thank you.

Furlow has been an absolute God centers.

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Budget 2021: Looking ahead to Chancellor Sunak’s March announcement - BBC Newsnight

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    林宜悉 posted on 2021/02/26
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