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  • Welcome to Charts that Count.

  • The single most striking thing about stock markets in 2020

  • was that they rose relentlessly, interrupted only briefly

  • by a steep decline in the spring,

  • despite the fact that a deadly pandemic was

  • sweeping the globe.

  • This apparent contradiction raises

  • deep and troubling questions about the relationship

  • between capital markets and the real economy,

  • and about the relationship between economic growth

  • and the welfare of actual human beings.

  • But we know part of this story has to do with interest rates.

  • Partly because of central bank activism,

  • and partly because of radically diminished expectations

  • for growth, long-term interest rates crashed

  • as the pandemic took hold.

  • And they have only slowly recovered from there.

  • All else equal, lower long-term interest rates

  • means a lower discount rate on, and therefore

  • a higher value of, the future cash flows from stocks.

  • And that meant that the biggest trade by far of 2020

  • was buying those companies that had the biggest cash

  • flows far out into the future.

  • And that meant tech stocks, which

  • saw their values doubled from their March lows.

  • So the big question for 2021 is whether these rising interest

  • rates and improved performance by cyclical value stocks

  • is the beginning of a true regime change within markets

  • after years of falling interest rates and market leadership

  • by growthy tech stocks?

  • The answer to this question will depend very much

  • on how smoothly the vaccination process goes

  • and on how much pent up economic demand

  • will be released when all of us, after a very challenging 2020,

  • get back to living a normal life.

Welcome to Charts that Count.

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B1 US FinancialTimes interest tech partly cash growth

Will tech stocks end their bull run in 2021

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    洪子雯 posted on 2020/12/22
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