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  • You've come a long way to compete in the great Diskymon league

  • and prove yourself a Diskymon master.

  • Now that you've made it to the finals, you're up against some tough competition.

  • As you enter the arena, the referee explains the rules.

  • There are three Diskydisks you can use.

  • Disk A will always summon a level 3 Burgersaur.

  • Disk B summons a Churrozard that has a 56% chance of being level 2,

  • a 22% chance of being level 4, and a 22% chance of being level 6.

  • Disk C will summon a level 5 Wartortilla 49% of the time,

  • and a level 1 Wartortilla 51% of the time.

  • All Diskymon fully heal between battles, and the higher level Diskymon always wins,

  • no matter what type it is.

  • In round one, you'll face a single opponent

  • and get to choose your disk before she picks from the remaining two.

  • Which one gives you the best chance of winning?

  • Pause here to figure it out yourself

  • Answer in 3

  • Answer in 2

  • Answer in 1

  • Before you start calculating probabilities,

  • take a look at the disks themselves.

  • Disks B and C each have a more than 50% chance

  • of summoning a level 2 or a level 1 Diskymon, respectively.

  • This means that disk A's guaranteed level 3 Burgersaur

  • will always have better than even odds of winning.

  • If you choose B or C, your opponent could pick A and gain an advantage over you.

  • And C fares worst of all, being more than 50% likely to lose to any opponent.

  • So you choose A, hoping for the best, and sure enough,

  • your level 3 Burgersaur triumphs over the level 2 Churrozard.

  • Now it's time for round two, and while you've prepared for trouble,

  • you didn't anticipate they'd make it double.

  • You get to choose any one of the three disks again,

  • but this time, you'll be in a battle royale against two opponents,

  • each using one of the other disks.

  • Whoever summons the highest level Diskymon wins.

  • Should you stick with A, or switch?

  • Pause now to figure it out yourself

  • Answer in 3

  • Answer in 2

  • Answer in 1

  • For many Diskymon trainers,

  • it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C,

  • it should also be the best at beating B and C.

  • Strangely enough, that couldn't be further from the truth.

  • Let's calculate the odds.

  • For A to win, B has to summon a level 2 Diskymon,

  • and C has to summon a level 1.

  • Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%.

  • For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur.

  • But you'd have two ways to win.

  • The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win,

  • while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1.

  • Adding up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%.

  • Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla

  • as long as B doesn't summon its level 6, giving C a 38% chance overall.

  • So while disk A's middling consistency was an advantage in a single matchup,

  • multiple fights increase the odds

  • that one of the other disks will summon something better.

  • And although C was the worst first-round option,

  • its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an advantage

  • when facing two opponents simultaneously.

  • This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading statistics

  • are a favored tool of unscrupulous politicians

  • and nefarious Diskymon trainers alike.

  • Fortunately, your Wartortilla comes out level 5 and makes short work of its foes.

  • You're about to celebrate when your rivals capture the referee

  • and announce a surprise third round.

  • You'll have to repeat each of the previous matches in succession,

  • with all the same rules except for one: you must keep the same disk throughout.

  • Which should you choose to give yourself the best chance

  • at becoming that which no one ever was?

You've come a long way to compete in the great Diskymon league

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B1 level disk summon chance odds summons

Can you solve the monster duel riddle? - Alex Gendler

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    林宜悉 posted on 2020/12/08
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