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  • U.

  • S Farmer for Moderna says trials of its Corona virus vaccine candidates show it is 95% effective.

  • It's the second company to announce successful trials after Pfizer and by attack last week.

  • It will still take time for the actual vaccine to be certified.

  • But already there is the question.

  • Will there be enough to go around?

  • Well, Biotech and Pfizer and Moderna are hoping to distribute a billion or MAWR doses during the next year.

  • Huge numbers When you compare to the likes of Germany's Cure Back, which is aiming to produce up to 400 million doses of its candidate in 2021 prices well, the vary massively UK based AstraZeneca is planning to charge the you perhaps as little as $3 a dose.

  • Johnson and Johnson is a bit more expensive, but the two front runners by on tech, Pfizer and Madonna are expected to charge significantly Mawr because there's arm or expensive to produce.

  • Cure Avec is yet to say how much its candidate will costs, so prospects of a working vaccine appear to be promising.

  • But where do we go from here?

  • Let's bring in Carson Jet ski.

  • He's the chief economist for Germany and Austria at I n G Bank.

  • Welcome to the program, Carson um too hopeful candidate candidates, which still lack certification, though experts said vaccine by the end of the year would be essential, Uh, in order to go forward and not Seymour economic damage.

  • But that's a close call.

  • We're in the middle of November.

  • We're getting closer there.

  • But I would agree with these experts because that's also we have in our base case scenario.

  • Our base case scenario sees this soft patch, especially in Europe, a contraction in the fourth quarter, some stabilization in the first quarter next year.

  • But everything is based really on this vaccine on this vaccine being rolled out, um, in the course off the first half of next year.

  • If this doesn't happen, then we're in a completely different play.

  • Then we would not talk about a recovery in 2021 but really a long lasting stagnation.

  • Alright, let's try to stay positive here.

  • I mean, even if the vaccine is there, it will take time to distribute.

  • It will obviously take time to vaccinate all the people.

  • How much of a challenge is this interim phase interim phase.

  • We're in this interim phase already and we see that this is a challenge.

  • Just see what what the German government was discussing.

  • Namely impossible.

  • Making the lock down measures even stricter.

  • We just last weekend we had Austria going for a stricter locked down.

  • Now, in Europe, we even have Sweden going into a street, the lock down.

  • So you know the typical saying off things will first have to get worse before they get better.

  • I think this is very typical for this interim phase in which we're in right now very tough winter on den.

  • With silver lining off the vaccine in the first half off next year, we would also have the prospect for people to really hang in there and then get the recovery.

  • But currently the really short term outlook is clearly not very positive.

  • The German government has said so far tighter restrictions in order to rein in the pandemic are likely to slow the recovery but not stall it.

  • Do you agree?

  • No.

  • Entirely to be honest, because we saw that the service sector I had already been slowing down.

  • What's the end of the third quarter?

  • So we entered the fourth quarter now with an enormous hit from first more social distancing that now since the beginning off November really a new lock down.

  • So the domestic part of the economy consumption services will be in contraction.

  • So the only wildcard is manufacturing and exports, which has been benefiting a lot from this strong rebound in the Chinese economy.

  • It's hard to tell whether this rebound will be sufficient to avoid a contraction in the fourth quarter.

  • I personally, when I look at the data so far, I think, yes, it is a close call.

  • But our call is that we will see a contraction off the German economy, a mild contraction, nothing compared to what we saw in spring time.

  • But it is a mild contraction in the fourth quarter custom jet ski of I N G.

  • Thank you for your thoughts this morning.

  • So the development of a covert 19 vaccine seems to be making hopeful progress and of how to distribute it are also underway.

  • Logistics officials call it the mission of a century.

  • We wanted to see what it looks like at the rosier cargo hub at France's biggest airports, all to go This is where the global airlift begins.

  • At France's largest air freight hub, Rossi.

  • Preparations for transporting a cove in 19 vaccine are in full swing.

  • Hundreds of thousands of doses have to be stored at very low temperatures, then shipped from here to destinations around the world.

  • It's a Herculean task for Florence Kong in charge of the airports Pharmaceutical freight section.

  • The temperature inside is minus 52 degrees Celsius minus 80 is possible, but not easy.

  • A behind the scenes airlines are also gearing up for the global airlift.

  • Thousands of planes and workers will be needed for the operation.

  • It's important to keep things running as smoothly as possible.

  • Way check.

  • Each steps of the deliveries are in the right place at the right time way.

  • Once a consignment gets the green light, it has toe happen quickly.

  • The vaccine must be kept deeply frozen in a complex logistics system.

  • Ueno There'll be a lot of traffic arriving at WASI because it's the major cargo airport in France in Europe.

  • But the planes will also have to land in other regional airports close to where patient delivery is needed.

  • Wade.

U.

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B2 contraction interim quarter fourth quarter phase distribute

Vaccine Update: Who's leading in creating an effective coronavirus vaccine? | DW News

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    林宜悉 posted on 2020/11/20
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