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  • What are the long term economic consequences of a lock down?

  • This is the question everyone wants to know, and we are in day one of lock down 2.0 here in the UK, Tier four locked down throughout the country.

  • All non essential services are closed, including Jim's, which is why I'm running in Victoria Park today.

  • I love this park.

  • Get here if you can.

  • On I was lucky enough to have Professor David Miles on this show today, and he is a former employee of the Bank of England.

  • He actually worked on the Monetary Policy Committee who are in charge of basically running the economy.

  • He also worked at Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch.

  • He got a CBE recently and very knowledgeable guy, and he went to try to break down the economic consequences of a lock down.

  • And it's something we don't talk about a lot.

  • We talk about the lives lost and we talk about trying to eliminate the virus.

  • But we don't really think that we're gonna pay for this all down the road, and no one ever quantifies it, or no one wants to actually talk about the cost of a life.

  • But let's talk about it because that's what David talked about today.

  • And I appreciate his honesty and bravery and talking about that.

  • You know, according to the NHS's own protocol, Uh, if they are about to provide a service to someone a medical service and it's going to extend their life by one year, they will not pay more than £30,000 for that treatment.

  • If the treatment is over, that they will actually not allow that treatment toe happen.

  • So that is a massive organization.

  • I think it's the largest single employer in the world, nonmilitary, and they make those decisions every day with our health here in Britain, on DSO, that's a pretty good number.

  • Tow.

  • Hang on there as far as what's what one year of one person's life is.

  • Now let's say you take someone that's gonna die of Kobe, who are usually in their eighties and let's be generous and say they had maybe 10 years of average life expectancy.

  • It's probably more like five.

  • If you really want to quantify that.

  • And again, I'm just doing this is an exercise because, of course, we want to minimize the cost of lives but also people every die every day.

  • And we want to find out what is the cost benefit of shutting down an entire country to save lives.

  • So if you multiply that times 10, then one of those lives on the outlier would be quantified is worth £300,000.

  • And if you take 1000 of those, that's £300 million.1000 a day is what they were projecting, uh, to be happening today.

  • It's actually much less than that.

  • But if you think about that cost of £300 million that's just for the people that died.

  • We're not talking about the cost of depression because of shutdown, of the economic consequences of unemployment, all of those other costs, which are probably tens or hundreds times that factor.

  • But we just think about the loss of lives.

  • Does it justify the economy being closed down, which is costing us £1.8 billion per day?

  • The answer is, it doesn't come anywhere near it.

  • And so one of the things that professor said today was if this lock down goes on any more than 30 days and he was being generous at that, he said.

  • It just no longer makes sense because we cannot afford to be locked down as a society and he made a great comparison.

  • He said, Look, if we tried to save everyone in the NHS, we would spend 98% of GDP on health costs and we would be bankrupt as a country.

  • So he said, we make decisions every single day, even from the speed limit.

  • Why is the speed limit 70 miles an hour?

  • If it was 10 miles an hour, there would be less lives lost.

  • But we know no one would ever be able to get anywhere.

  • So we make some some place in between and that's what we have to make now.

  • A decision to try to quantify the actions were making as opposed to just panic and be emotional and lock everything down.

  • When we are all going to personally pay for this coming down the road and we are gonna pay in many ways, we're gonna pay for the furlough program.

  • We're gonna pay for the economy contracting by 12 14% of GDP this year, which is unheard of.

  • We're gonna pay for potentially 13% unemployment in Q.

  • Four.

  • We're gonna pay for the mental health for the Depression.

  • We're gonna pay for everything.

  • And it's something we really need to have a hard conversation about.

  • And I was really privileged to have him on talking with me today.

  • So leave your comments below.

  • Tell me, is this macabre, as the professor said today, to talk about death in such an analytic way?

  • And should we have an economist on the Sage Committee of scientific Glassware speaking to our prime minister?

  • So he's not just talking Thio epidemiologists and scientists.

  • He's talking to someone who can actually quantify the impact because we all live by economics.

  • We all do.

  • Our health service, our government, our economy, our salaries, the prices of our foods.

  • It's all economics.

  • Our life is ultimately economics.

  • And if we don't think about it this way, we're gonna make knee jerk emotional reactions just like we all have with our finances.

  • Right?

  • That thing looks really pretty.

  • Let me buy it.

  • Let me buy drinks for the whole bar, right?

  • It all sounds like a good moment, but you have to pay for it later and you realize that's a wrong decision.

  • We need to really think hard about the decisions we're making now because the long term ramifications are dire, and I just give you one factor of that, which is the cost of those deaths.

  • Not to mention all of the cost of the business is going out of the jobs being lost.

  • Mental health are lost generation generation co vid and their bleak looking future.

  • So leave your comments below.

  • I know these air hard questions and hardtops discuss, but that's my job.

  • To get out there and have these hard discussions, let me know your comments.

  • Forward this to someone if it's important.

  • And again, let's move forward.

  • Let's our ask hard questions on Let's find some way to say this economy, say this country and make the best decisions, Thank you very much.

What are the long term economic consequences of a lock down?

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A2 gonna pay pay cost lock economy economics


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    林宜悉 posted on 2020/11/05
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