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  • once he gets to that point in his season when he throws that many pitches, opponents basically hit like there, Lou Gehrig against him in every considerable moment.

  • And what all of that adds up to is a moment in which analytics took center stage during the biggest game of the baseball season.

  • And the analytics revolution, if you will, has been something that has caused so much interesting conversation and consternation.

  • I wanted to bring it to this group.

  • Dominique Foxworth's Let Me start with you.

  • A lot of people have criticized candidly.

  • Almost everyone criticized the manager for basing a decision there on analytics versus what his eyes were seeing in the moment.

  • What did you think?

  • I think almost everyone is wrong.

  • Like, to me, it just feels like like confirmation bias from, like, meathead anti intellectuals like the decision was made based on the stats that were presented to him.

  • And that's the decision that they've been making all season.

  • Like you don't get ah, bottom five payroll to the world.

  • Siri's, without relying on some analytics like feel, isn't going to get you there.

  • And I understand why people think that you should change your habits or change your decisions in those situations.

  • But analytics is a lot based on probability.

  • So you're at this crosswords.

  • If you have a decision to make in one side, there's a tight rope you can use across it and other side.

  • There's a rickety bridge.

  • Okay, the rickety bridge might break, but it's slightly safer than the tightrope.

  • That's what analytics is about, not about having some feeling, and everyone jumping on this as a reason to say The analytics are bad.

  • It's just confirmation bias, because you could also look at this and say, This team that should not be in the World Series is in the World Series because they relied on getting every edge they can because they're relying on numbers, not on some sort of feel.

  • So you're very much alone for amongst most of the people I've talked to on that perspective, Luis Riddick.

  • What do you think, Analytic?

  • This is not just a baseball conversation.

  • Analytics versus the eye test.

  • Where do you stand?

  • Lewis?

  • Look, I think the sweet spot is when you have the marriage between the objective and the subjective, and you allow them toe work together.

  • Meeting this I am not someone who's gonna bang on analytics because I believe that it plays an important role in all supports and in the sport that I cover in particular in football, it's playing a bigger and bigger role, especially when you're talking about to two point conversion probabilities, fourth down conversion probabilities, and I understand it and you see it playing itself out.

  • It's just that the issue here is this, though.

  • Once you start getting into certain situations, the subjective, decision making process has to be also considered.

  • For instance.

  • I mean, if you're one of those football teams is deep in your own territory, you know that 4000 conversion probabilities have continued to trend up over the past couple of years, and you're facing 1/4 and one on your own 25 own 30 year olds 30 yard line and you're in a tight ballgame in.

  • Your offense isn't doing very much.

  • It's probably not very.

  • It's probably not smart to go for it on fourth down at that time, especially if you're playing good defense.

  • Punt the ball way, play the field position battle, and that's like one of those kind of situations.

  • Although It's just a small situation of where your subjective feel for how the game is going is going to trump what the analysts would tell you to do, necessarily in that in that kind of situation.

  • But I look there.

  • There's no question, though, that relying on some historical data to help you make decision making help me make decisions is something that's here to stay.

  • It's something that I believe in.

  • And maybe in this case, he needed to pay attention to what was going on in the football on on the baseball diamond with his picture and said, Hey, look, maybe he starts to get hit at this point in time in the past, But right now he's feeling it and our team is feeling it.

  • Maybe I should leave him in there a little bit longer.

  • Sometimes I like to say it could be a little more of an art than a science.

  • Sometimes D would 30 seconds your thoughts, analytics.

  • What do you think the other night?

  • No, listen, I think analytical, you know, definitely has his role, particularly in the sport of baseball.

  • But again, you know when you're talking about not just baseball but sports in general, a lot of times that the ebb and flows of the game they change and to to consistently to rely just on the numbers.

  • In this particular situation, I think it was a huge did a huge injustice, Um, to the to the time of race.

  • In this particular situation, Thank you for watching ESPN on YouTube for live streaming sports and premium content.

  • Subscribe to ESPN, plus.

once he gets to that point in his season when he throws that many pitches, opponents basically hit like there, Lou Gehrig against him in every considerable moment.

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Get Up debates analytics vs. the eye test

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    林宜悉 posted on 2020/10/31
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