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  • two diplomats of a conventional cast.

  • The arrival of Donald Trump in the world scene was an outrage, charming toe autocrats and occasionally abusive toe allies.

  • Trump has plowed his own furrow, so much so that even traditionally minded Republicans wonder what damage might result if the American people choose to re elect him one time around.

  • I think people can understand this is a populist, nationalist moment, not just in the United States but in other countries.

  • Um, but if the greatest country on Earth does this twice, and I think it's really does affect how people view us.

  • But the other thing is, I mean, there are consequences for how the United States behaves in the world.

  • And I think in the second trump term you would see even mawr of the, uh, unilateral kind of behavior.

  • The disdain for allies, the desire Thio cut deals with really problematic regimes that you've seen before.

  • President Trump doesn't like alliances.

  • He prefers dealing with other nations one toe, one.

  • How damaging has that bean to multilateral cooperation?

  • Well, last year there was a cabinet meeting here which I've heard.

  • The foreign secretary at the time said that NATO would be unlikely to survive a second trump term.

  • But of course, the trump years have included foreign policy and security successes from the overwhelming of Isis temporarily, at least to the normalization of relations between Israel and some Gulf Arab states.

  • On there's been a rearguard action against more assertive rivals, even if it's had to come from other members of the Trump administration.

  • He immensely important shift in US policy in confronting the aggression of the Chinese Communist Party.

  • I think that's going to be a multi generational policy that has very, very strong bipartisan support I mentioned on Russia.

  • The Trump administration in its actions confronted Russia significantly not just with sanctions but also with providing defensive capabilities to Ukraine for, for example, on and many other measures that were put in place.

  • Of course, as you mentioned and as we discussed, you know, the president's public statements were unhelpful, so that presidential voice, so often strident, inconsistent or mocking, has not played out in quite the same way internationally as a home on in confronting big issues such as trade with China.

  • Those who've been present in negotiations argue America's aims under Trump have not been radically different.

  • What we have seen is that what they want to actually achieve in this negotiation, where there with China or Japan or the European Union, the core national objectives have more or less remained the same on the objection that United States have with the World Trade Organization are basically constant.

  • So the complaints are more or less unchanged.

  • The only thing that really changes, actually, just table manners.

  • I mean, I highly appreciate civility, manners on bond, the ability to build allies.

  • But the question is, what do you need them for?

  • You know what Kim Jong un the North Korea, said when I talked like I just did about him, he said, Joe Biden is a rabid dog and should be beaten to death with a stick.

  • That's the highest compliment.

  • I've gotten a long time from a thug.

  • Now the campaign is in its final phase.

  • Democrats and anti Trump Republicans alike remind the public of his reluctance to confront dictators and evangelized for Western values.

  • But with the possibility of a Joe Biden presidency strengthening, they also acknowledge that the U.

  • S election won't change governments overseas and a simple return to a pre trump foreign policy is impossible.

  • The world is more dangerous, more divided, strong men are on the rise.

  • Our alliances are afraid and it makes the world much more dangerous.

  • Place and rebuilding.

  • It is going to be difficult.

  • We've advocated the world stage for four years.

  • Others have stepped up into it.

  • The Europeans have stepped up to Germany, has stepped up to it.

  • But you've also got China building.

  • It's a massive belt and road initiative.

  • You've got President Putin increasingly influential around the world on America's leadership is needed and Onley America can fill that role.

  • I will join the Paris Accord because with us out of it, look what's happening.

  • It's all falling apart.

  • The Biden campaign insists that their man would move swiftly to revitalize alliances and restore international confidence in US leadership, for example, rejoining the Paris climate change accord trying to revive the Iran nuclear deal.

  • But the fundamentals in seeking to avoid new foreign walls or contesting trade policy with China will not change even if the language does.

  • The point that I would make is don't underestimate the importance of tone.

  • You know, the fact that you have the United States, which behaves like a normal ally, which does not seem to be in the grip of somebody who themselves have kind of lost their grip.

  • Um is going to be a very big deal.

  • When will be profoundly reassuring because the Biden team is basically the old Obama team?

  • Uh, some except the people around Hillary Clinton.

  • Plus they'll probably bring in a few of the never trump Republicans.

  • And I expect what they'll do is you'll have a whole bunch of those those folks together with people who are clearly surrogates going to capitals all over the world, you know, from camera Tokyo, London um, Brasilia, you name it and saying, Look through old United States is back.

  • Aziz for the UK A current cruise of the Queen Elizabeth carrier jointly operating American and British jets underlines long standing defense and intelligence cooperation.

  • But Joe Biden's shot across the bows about respecting the Anglo Irish agreement in Brexit has shown that Boris Johnson would be unwise to take a U.

  • S.

  • Trade deal for granted.

  • So how will the outcome affect the message coming from the U.

  • S.

  • Embassy in London?

  • Well, whether it's a trump or Biden presidency, the negotiations for a free trade deal with the U.

  • S are likely to be tough.

  • But of course, President Trump had sympathy with Brexit in a way that Joe Biden doesn't.

  • Indeed, the challenger has shown that he highly values European unity on the sanctity of the Good Friday agreement in Ireland.

  • E think there was a callous disregard for the Good Friday agreement in the U.

  • K's decision Thio Exit three European Union.

  • The way they have handled Brexit, the chaos that surrounded it and, frankly, disregarding the commitments of the Good Friday agreement.

  • They I was very involved in the Irish peace process under President Clinton, and it matters What, uh, is upheld in the Good Friday agreement.

  • And they the fact that they would go through this process over years and not have an answer to what is happening to the border between North and South is just frankly irresponsible.

  • It needs to be solved.

  • There cannot be a violation of the Good Friday agreement.

  • That then underlines that while there may be more civility, ah, hardheaded assessment of U.

  • S.

  • Interests will define the next administration's foreign policy.

two diplomats of a conventional cast.

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What impact will the US election have on foreign policy? - BBC Newsnight

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    林宜悉 posted on 2020/10/25
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