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  • American presidential elections have proceeded smoothly, uninterrupted through Civil War and World War, on a straight line since 17 88.

  • In a country of maddening complexity, they are the reliable punctuation off American life.

  • 2020 could well be different after today's news.

  • The road to this election and that America takes after it could well be much more complicated.

  • E.

  • I have amassed great here.

  • I put a mask on, you know, when I think I need it.

  • Amidst the speculation on drama, we should bear in mind the possibility that the president recovers relatively quickly.

  • Of course, he'll have to cancel rallies on postpone the next debate.

  • President Trump has previously called for the election to be postponed itself.

  • Given he will be off the pitch, He may well do so again.

  • E.

  • But if he doesn't get better, we head into a much more complicated scenario, one fraught with legal and political uncertainty.

  • If the president becomes seriously ill before Election Day, he could invoke the 25th Amendment.

  • This would allow the vice president to become the acting president until he recovers.

  • This has happened before.

  • When President Reagan was shot in 1981 on when George W.

  • Bush had heart surgery in 2000 and seven.

  • But it's never been used for a prolonged period, let alone just before an election.

  • The bigger question arises.

  • If Trump weren't able to hand over, then the Cabinet would have to get involved with a majority vote declaring him incapacitated.

  • Where again, Pence takes over, though we're not nearly at that point.

  • Questions are being asked about what happens if the worst happens if the president dies from the disease either before or after Election Day.

  • Truly uncharted territory.

  • If it were to happen before the election, the Republican National Committee would have to choose another candidate, most likely Vice President Pence.

  • But not necessarily.

  • We're so late in the election process that states are not going to be able to reprint ballots with the new nominee from the Republican Party.

  • At the top of the ticket on DSO, voters who are supporting the Republican Party would either vote for President Trump on the ballot.

  • Or, conceivably, they might right in the candidate that the Republican National Committee has chosen to replace them on this is as nothing to compare.

  • If it were toe happen after the election had taken place.

  • But before the Electoral College, the body which technically chooses the president were to meet.

  • So let's assume President Trump has won the election.

  • Um, but he's no longer able to serve.

  • Uh, now.

  • At that point, the Republican National Committee would probably announce who they preferred.

  • Thio replace President Trump.

  • But it would be up to the electors in the Electoral College from the states that President Trump had one who are presumably Republican Party loyalists, to decide who they would vote for in the Electoral College.

  • Even in 18 64 with half the unions has ceded, the American electoral process went ahead.

  • This election might be the most uncertain since.

  • Remember that this election was already likely tohave a legally contested process on potentially a legally contested outcome.

  • Not since Lincoln's day as one side made it so clear that they might not accept the results of an election.

  • The union Lincoln saved, whilst far from him in time is not so distant in terms of its political space.

  • In terms of the deep uncertainty which undoubtedly now lies ahead little school, and before I go to my next guest, we're just getting news that Joe Biden has taken down all negative ads about this campaign and Donald Trump.

  • And that is a story from Reuters.

  • Just in well, I'm joined now by the author and professor of politics at the University of Virginia, Larry Sabato.

  • But Subito and renowned constitutional law expert Alan Dershowitz Good evening to both of you, Alan Dershowitz.

  • If I could just pick up with you.

  • We understand the 25th Amendment as it stands, but surely 32 days from an election, we are in completely uncharted waters.

  • Well, we're on started waters.

  • When it what happens to a candidate, we know what happens to a president.

  • The 25th Amendment handles that very well, But what happens to a candidate even if he's a sitting president?

  • Remember that presidential elections are really 50 state elections in every single state has different rules about how you can replace a candidate.

  • Many votes have already been cast.

  • Many ballots have already been sent out.

  • And so even if the Republican National Committee, or, say to nominate pence or, in an extreme case, nominate Nikki Haley or Mike Pompeo, who they would prefer perhaps a stronger candidate every state would have to decide that they are eligible to vote, and the electors would then have to decide to cast a vote for them on.

  • And the worst case scenario is if you had a three way race, if you had in some states, the president still on the ballot in other states the vice president, other states, yet Ah, third party candidate you can end up with on electoral non majority, in which case the election goes to the House of Representatives, where every state casts one vote.

  • This is surely not only uncharted ground, but constitutionally ambiguous ground.

  • I think the end result of this is gonna be we're gonna need a constitutional amendment, but it won't apply to this election.

  • Well, this is, I must say, we're not at the stage yet, of course, of saying that Donald Trump would not be able to contest the election.

  • But Larry Sabato, this potentially has huge significance.

  • Well, potentially.

  • It's a nightmare scenario, and it's pretty far fetched, and I don't think it's going to happen.

  • Uh, you know, we play this game every four years with presidential candidates, even when you don't have a candidate who's ill There's a pretty well outlined procedure for the National Party committee to replace either the presidential candidate or the vice presidential candidate.

  • Vice presidential candidates have been replaced.

  • One on the Democratic side, one on the Republican side, a Republican incumbent vice president died in October of 1912 when the incumbent president, William Howard Taft, was running for re election.

  • He didn't win, so we didn't have to worry about it.

  • But the Republican National Committee nominated someone before the election, and sure enough, the electors pledged Thio.

  • President Taft voted for that new vice presidential candidate.

  • So you don't buy the Alan Dershowitz version that it could be, as it were, a three way split.

  • No, it's possible, but it's a nightmare scenario.

  • And, you know, I like to have pleasant dreams, so I don't focus on things like that.

  • I have Thio.

  • Earlier in the program, Alan Dershowitz We spoke to Steve Bolton, GOP president in Chicago, on he absolutely dismissed the idea that there be anything other than candor coming out of the White House.

  • But do you agree?

  • Do you think that White House will always tell the truth about what's going on at the moment or for national security reasons.

  • Could the delay.

  • I don't think they will be able not to tell the truth.

  • There will be leaks are good reporters.

  • The truth will come out, I believe.

  • And I agree with your prior guests, I think aereo.

  • But because of the threats of violence in the street and the threats of going to court, we have to now be prepared for every possible nightmare scenario.

  • We should not be sleeping comfortably and well.

  • We should be worried this could happen.

  • The Republican National Committee could be split and divided.

  • It could nominate a candidate who is not the vice president.

  • Vice president might say No, I'm the approach candidate.

  • There are a lot of possibilities and also state by state.

  • They have to decide whether or not to accept the recommendation of the Republican National Committee.

  • So the old telegram, you know, bad news.

  • Worry.

  • Now you know, more news coming soon.

  • That's what we have to worry about.

  • Bad news now.

  • Worst news soon.

  • We hope we don't have it.

  • We're all hoping that the president recovers quickly and we have a firm and clear election with a clear and determined outcome, but there is no guarantee right now.

  • So e must say that you did represent Donald Trump in the impeachment trial.

  • You're also very keen part of the legal team, but you're also have a key watch of what goes on politically and in such a polarized election.

  • Do you think that anything that's happening right now would shift the dial?

  • Or do you think things are pretty set in concrete?

  • Well, I think they were pretty set in concrete, and I think this can shift the dial.

  • We saw that when Boris Johnson was sick, he got a lot of support from people who wouldn't otherwise necessarily supporting The symphony package could come into effect, but also President Trump runs on being a strong, powerful president who attacks weak people and attacked Biden for not wearing masks.

  • So this could change the dynamic of the election.

  • But it's too early to tell Isolated.

  • What's your view on whether it changes the dynamic of the election?

  • It does not.

  • It's very unlikely to do so.

  • I think basically, people decided months, maybe years ago, whether they loved or hated Donald Trump, and those are the only two emotions attached to Donald Trump.

  • They've known for a long time.

  • We've known for a long time how we were going to vote in this election.

  • While we all hope the president recovers.

  • Of course, he is partly responsible for his own problems.

  • No question about that.

  • He's been very irresponsible in not wearing mask, not making.

  • The people around him were masked, not making his people and supporters and staffers social distance.

  • So the sympathy factor is going to be pretty much confined to those who are already voting for him.

  • Of the Trump East is all across the United States, Very few people would cross the aisle to vote for him On this basis again, we all hope he gets better.

  • As we hope, every cove in patient gets better, including those without gold plated health care.

  • Now on the question.

  • Sorry on Dash has come in there.

  • I don't agree.

  • I do think there are undecided voters.

  • Still, there are some voters who would be affected by the sympathy factor enough to change the outcome of the election.

  • I doubt it, but Americans care deeply about the presidency and their president, and it's not only people who love Donald Trump, who are hoping and praying for his full recovery.

  • I think there are a lot of Americans in the middle, decent Americans who just care deeply about the president and might be somewhat more sympathetic to his plight, his wife's flight than they would otherwise be.

  • Elisabetta if Donald Trump did not do one father minute of campaigning in the next 32 days, not one further minute.

  • Is there anything there that would illegitimate is as it were the election?

  • Or does the fact of who campaigns and who doesn't actually have nothing to do with it?

  • Well, normally campaigning matters a lot, and I'm not going to say it doesn't matter this time.

  • It could matter, depending on what else happens.

  • It's October 2nd, and we've already had a massive October surprise.

  • There could be other October surprises.

  • We could have other black swan events in this crazy, cursed year of 2020.

  • But, uh, in this case, we have the ultimate polarizer, the most polarizing person in American politics in my lifetime.

  • And because of that, people have divided into camps long ago.

  • Most of them, the vast majority, are not going to switch.

  • You could hope that a president recovers and vote against him.

  • It's very easy to Dio.

  • And by the way, millions have already voted.

  • Million's have already voted, Thank you both very much indeed.

American presidential elections have proceeded smoothly, uninterrupted through Civil War and World War, on a straight line since 17 88.

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President Trump hospitalised: What happens to the Presidential election?- BBC News

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    林宜悉 posted on 2020/10/25
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