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  • get ready for some unavoidable drama on election day.

  • Not only is the coronavirus driving more people to cast their votes by mail this year, but it also may be splitting the electorate in a fundamentally partisan way.

  • Reuters Ipsos polling shows that mainland voters favored Democrat Joe Biden over President Donald Trump by a 2 to 1 margin.

  • Meanwhile, a majority of voters who want to vote in person on Election Day say that they're backing Donald Trump.

  • This split could create what many are calling red or blue Mirages on November 3rd.

  • That is early and false impressions of a lead for one of the two major party candidates.

  • In some cases, those Mirages could last just a few hours.

  • In others, it may last for days.

  • Take the battleground states of Florida and North Carolina.

  • Both states are allowed to count their mail in ballots ahead of the election, and they are currently expected toe report.

  • Those results assumes voting ends because of that floor in North Carolina may appear to be leaning towards a Biden wind early in the night.

  • But be aware that lead really isn't really it's just a head start in the ballot counting binds.

  • Advantage over Trump in those states should erode as more in person votes are mixed in.

  • It'll be the opposite in some of the critical Rust Belt states.

  • Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will only start counting their mail in ballots on November 3rd.

  • It takes time to do that, which means early on it will appear as if Trump has jumped out to what would be a surprising lead, Given that polls show right now that he's trailing Biden in those states again, this is just a mirage.

  • Trump's lead in the Rust Belt will decline as a mail in ballots are tallied.

  • What's more, it may take days or even weeks to fully recount the mail in ballots in some of those states, so everyone is gonna need to be patient.

  • Some races may not be called until well after Election Day.

get ready for some unavoidable drama on election day.

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B2 H-INT mail election trump election day lead rust

Beware of early U.S. election wins

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    林宜悉   posted on 2020/10/24
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