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get ready for some unavoidable drama on election day.
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Not only is the coronavirus driving more people to cast their votes by mail this year, but it also may be splitting the electorate in a fundamentally partisan way.
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Reuters Ipsos polling shows that mainland voters favored Democrat Joe Biden over President Donald Trump by a 2 to 1 margin.
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Meanwhile, a majority of voters who want to vote in person on Election Day say that they're backing Donald Trump.
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This split could create what many are calling red or blue Mirages on November 3rd.
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That is early and false impressions of a lead for one of the two major party candidates.
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In some cases, those Mirages could last just a few hours.
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In others, it may last for days.
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Take the battleground states of Florida and North Carolina.
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Both states are allowed to count their mail in ballots ahead of the election, and they are currently expected toe report.
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Those results assumes voting ends because of that floor in North Carolina may appear to be leaning towards a Biden wind early in the night.
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But be aware that lead really isn't really it's just a head start in the ballot counting binds.
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Advantage over Trump in those states should erode as more in person votes are mixed in.
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It'll be the opposite in some of the critical Rust Belt states.
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Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will only start counting their mail in ballots on November 3rd.
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It takes time to do that, which means early on it will appear as if Trump has jumped out to what would be a surprising lead, Given that polls show right now that he's trailing Biden in those states again, this is just a mirage.
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Trump's lead in the Rust Belt will decline as a mail in ballots are tallied.
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What's more, it may take days or even weeks to fully recount the mail in ballots in some of those states, so everyone is gonna need to be patient.
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Some races may not be called until well after Election Day.