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  • There's been an escalating conflict on the edge of Europe, Thank you.

  • Artillery attacks, airstrikes, fighter jets coming down, civilian buildings being damaged and over 100 killed.

  • A historic dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia has reignited on a watching world is asking, can full scale war be avoided?

  • Russia, the U.

  • S.

  • And France A calling for an immediate ceasefire, but they know ceasefire or not Fundamentally, this is being driven by a long standing dispute that was never resolved.

  • And this is why here on the map, you can see Armenia to the west, Azerbaijan to the east.

  • Both were part of the Soviet Union before it disintegrated in the early nineties.

  • And right where we see the to meet is an en clave called Nagorno Karabakh.

  • In the eyes of the international community, it's part of Azerbaijan, but its population is now almost entirely ethnic Armenian.

  • In the late eighties and early nineties, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a war over Nagorno power back and despite the U.

  • N.

  • Calling on Armenia to withdraw its troops.

  • By 1994 Azerbaijan had lost Nagorno Karabakh, declared independence on became part of Armenia in orbit name so 26 years on.

  • Why is the escalation happening now?

  • Well, the languages hardened.

  • He's Azerbaijan's president.

  • We only have one condition, he says.

  • Armenian armed forces must unconditionally, fully and immediately leave our lands.

  • Armenia has no intention of agreeing.

  • Here's its president.

  • What they are trying to do is tow force Armenians out off that off the land that they historically lived, even before the other Bejan as as a as a republic existed.

  • So but in my vocabulary is called ethnic cleansing.

  • On this intensification could be explained by looking internally on externally.

  • First, domestic politics in Armenia.

  • This has been happening.

  • Unfortunately, Armenian prime minister, I think, has been forced by his own domestic politics to back away from the framework agreement that had been negotiated for years between his country and Azerbaijan.

  • And then this is the situation in Azerbaijan with the social problems with the falling price of oil, with the reforms that are needed in the economy, the war probably is the best possible outcome to make sure that public rallies around the leader as well as that Azerbaijan's booming oil sector has given it added income on influence on def.

  • Domestic politics is one vital factor.

  • The differing approaches of Turkey and Russia is another.

  • Turkey has been vociferous in its support of Azerbaijan.

  • Here's its president Booth path to a lasting peace requires the withdrawal of Armenians from every inch of his eerie land they are occupying.

  • The constant efforts to slander Turkey will not save the Armenian government, and this is part of a broader pattern.

  • Turkey's willingness to oppose major powers is on show from Libya to northern Syria to gas drilling in the eastern med to migration into Europe and now Azerbaijan.

  • To, in this case, France's unimpressed accusing Turkey of warlike messages which have removed Azerbaijan's inhibitions and certainly Azerbaijan's bean, emboldened by Turkey's support.

  • Equally important, as reported by Reuters here, has been Russia seeking to mediate rather than overtly taking sides, and given Russia has a military base in Armenia, that too, will embolden Azerbaijan.

  • But all of those factors together on whatever the rights and wrongs, you arrive at a moment of high risk.

  • Mohammad Ayoub of Michigan State University argues.

  • There are too many external fingers in this caucus pie.

  • It has the potential to turn into a major regional conflict, and there's one more worrying dimension to this today, France has confirmed jihadist fighters from Syria have bean located in the Gorno Cara.

  • Back as president Macron puts it.

  • I think this is a very serious new fact, which changes the situation in Syria itself, provides evidence of the catastrophic consequences of a local conflict becoming a far greater proxy battle.

  • France and others are desperate to avoid this here.

  • For all of these reasons, this has already become about stopping the conflict now and stopping its return.

  • The first part appears likely if Russia, France and the US what a ceasefire Well, you wouldn't bet against it.

  • But that doesn't resolve the core issue that the world considers Nagorno Karabakh part of Azerbaijan, and yet Armenia controls it.

There's been an escalating conflict on the edge of Europe, Thank you.

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B1 azerbaijan armenia nagorno turkey armenian karabakh

Avoiding war in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict - BBC News

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    林宜悉 posted on 2020/10/23
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