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When you look at the stock market, it's difficult to understand why each stock is priced in
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such away.
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I mean, look, we all have heard the news that Apple is the first trillion-dollar company,
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its world's biggest and most successful company.
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Maybe the stock price should be higher as well, right?
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Not really!
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The reality is quite diffident.
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Apple's stock price right now is 258 dollars, while a company that is hundreds of times
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smaller like NVR Incorporated has a stock price of 3000 dollars.
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Does that mean that NVR incorporated is bigger than Apple, the short answer is No.
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However, it's a little bit more complicated than it might seem.
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In fact, the entire stock market seems quite complicated at first look.
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But there is a logical explanation behind most of the things.
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To make a sense out of the stock market, we have to understand what a stock is in the
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first place.
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Let's say, For the last 6 months, you have been thinking of starting a business.
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The only problem you have is, you don't know what business to start.
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One day, on your way to college, an idea strikes your mind.
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You pull out your phone and write it down, you rush to your house and start planning.
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Everything looks perfect; you know how to turn your idea into a multi-billion dollar
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company.
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Congrats.
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But its too early to celebrate because you don't have the capital to start.
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You gather your family members, and you explain to them the idea hoping that they will invest
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in the company.
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Everyone thinks you are crazy, except your uncle, who decides to bet on you.
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10 thousand dollars in exchange for 20 percent of the company.
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It might not seem much, but it's actually a lot.
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Because your uncle just valued your idea that's not proven yet at 50 thousand dollars.
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So you register your company, issue 100K shares, and your uncle gets 20K of them.
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You start building your website and designing your product.
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In a few months, you run out of cash, and you need to raise more money.
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Unlike last time, where you simply had an idea.
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Now you have a concept to present.
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So, instead of going to your uncle again, now you can do something different, like talking
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to some of the big guys.
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Such as Angel investors.
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Angel investors are usually the rich dudes who are looking for innovative ideas or young
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entrepreneurs to invest in.
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Something like sharks in the shark tank.
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It's not easy to convince these guys to throw money into your business, because statistically,
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9 out of 10 businesses fail.
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And you have to prove to them why you are an exception.
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After talking to multiple angel investors.
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Luckily, you could get one of them on board.
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But first, you have to agree on the valuation.
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There is pre-money valuation and post-money valuation.
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It's not as difficult as it sounds.
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Pre-money valuation is how you value the company before receiving the investment.
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And post-money valuation is pre-money valuation plus the investment.
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The higher the pre-money valuation, the less portion of the company the investor is going
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to take.
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You enter into a negotiation, and you convince the investor to throw 1 million dollars into
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your business, with 2 million dollars post-money valuation.
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So the investor is going to take 50 percent of the company (1/2).
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And your shares will get diluted together with your uncle ones.
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That doesn't mean, you are going to have fewer shares, the company will simply issue another
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100 thousand shares for the investor.
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So, now there are a total of 200K shares instead of 100K shares, and your stake is 40% ( since
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you own 80K share and your uncle's stake is 10%).
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With a million-dollar, you rent an office, hire some designers, engineers, and specialists
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to complete your product.
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Finally, everything is ready; you are about to lunch your product, app, service, whatever.
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But guess what, you are out of cash.
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And you still need a marketing budget and salespeople, so you decide to raise some more
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money.
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You go for a series B.
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This time, you meet some VCs or Venture Capitalists.
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They are not your typical angel investors.
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These are dudes with MBAs and work in Venture Capitalists firms, who take other people's
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money and invest in companies such as yours.
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Anyways, after multiple negotiations, they decide to bet on you.
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Since you already have a team and a product to launch, your company hopefully now worth
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more.
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Lets say the VC offers you a 10 million dollar investment with a 20 million dollar post-money
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valuation.
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You find that offer fair, and you accept it.
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The company issues another 200K shares, and everyone's stake gets diluted again.
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Since the VC just purchased 50% of the company.
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(your 20%, uncle's 5%, angel investor 25%)
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In case you are wondering.
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No one has lost money so far.
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In fact, everyone just got wealthier.
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The angel investor, for example, had 50% of 2 million dollars when he invested in the
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company.
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Now he has 25% of a company that worth 20 Million dollars (which is 5 Million dollars).
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In fact, your stake worth now 4 Million dollars.
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Anyways you can go for Series C, D, and so on.
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Few years have passed.
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Congrats, you have made it.
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Your idea turns out to be a success.
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Your business is finally making money.
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Remember, everyone who has invested in your company has been waiting for you to grow big
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enough so that they can cash out.
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Especially your uncle, who's 10K investment now worth millions.
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You have two options, you either get sold to one of the giants of the industry like
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Instagram did.
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Or you go public like Facebook.
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And that's known as IPO - Initial public offering.
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It's just another way to raise funds and issue shares, but this time, anyone can buy your
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shares.
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They are open to the public.
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Your uncle or that angel investor can sell their shares and make a fortune.
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In fact, people can buy and sell your shares among themselves in the stock market.
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So before going public, the stock price is determined by what you and the investor would
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agree on.
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But after going public, the number of factors would influence the price slightly change.
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The laws of demand and supply would determine the price.
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stock price after going public
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Facebook went public in May 2012, at 38 dollars per share, valuing the company at
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104 billion dollars.
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But the public didn't agree with Facebook, so the demand for Facebook shares wasn't as
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high as the supply, therefore, on the day of IPO, the stock price dropped to 18 dollars
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a share.
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But Facebook still managed to sell enough shares to raise 16 billion dollars, making
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it one of the largest IPOs in the country.
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The price of the stock doesn't accurately present the true value of the company because
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the number of factors that can influence the demand and supply of a certain stock are just
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too many.
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Let's just say hypothetical, some kind of disease would spread around the world, that
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would push the media to talk and exaggerate about how the disease could crush the economy.
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That would scare off immature investors and would push them to sell their stocks before
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the market would go down as the media said.
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So the supply of a certain stock let's say Facebook would be much higher than the demand
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for it in the market, which would push the price to plummet.
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And that could scare off the rest of the investors and push them to sell their shares as well
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before it drops even further.
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Even though this particular disease in any way isn't effecting Facebook, it still forced
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its stock price to drop significantly.
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Here is another example.
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The company might realize its earnings for the last quarter, and they might not meet
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the expectations slightly.
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That could get some negative press, and negative press could easily push some investors, especially
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immature ones, to sell their shares, and that would increase the supply of the shares and
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would drive the price down and even scare off more professional investors.
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It is a never-ending cycle.
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That's why a panic over a crisis can destroy the economy.
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The company might not be making a profit for years or decades.
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But because it seems like some time in the future, it is going to make a lot of money.
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Investors would keep buying its shares, hoping that one day it is going to pay back, and
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that hope would keep the price rising like in the case of Amazon.
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It didn't make a profit for 20 years, and yet it made Bezos the richest man in the world.
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If a company would keep doing great, the stock price could rise to an unbelievable amount.
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Berkshire Hathaway's stock price peaked at 340 thousand dollars a share in February.
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Yes, you heard it right, a single stock costs 340 thousand dollars, that's what it takes
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to invest in Warren Buffet's company.
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So some companies play around with their stocks to increase the demand for the stock by splitting
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their stocks, for example, to keep them attractive even to small investors.
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Take an example of Apple; the stock price currently is 247 dollars, but did you know
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that in June of 2014, it was 649.88 dollars.
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That doesn't make sense!
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Right?!
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Because the company doubled its market cap and iPhone sales skyrocketed since then.
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Then what does that suppose to mean?
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Let me explain!
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In June 2014, Apple split its stock 7 for 1.
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In simple words, apple divided each stock to 7 stocks, so the stock price dropped to
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92.7 dollars.
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So if you had 1 apple stock back then that cost 650 dollars, now you have 7 stocks, and
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each of them costs 92.7 dollars (7x92.7).
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Nothing really changed, but the stock seems more affordable now, which increased the demand
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for them, hence the price would rise as well.
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The number of factors that could influence the stock price are way more than we can possibly
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can cover in this video, but here is the catch.
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The trick is to find out if the price of the stock does really represents the true value
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of the company.
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If its overvalued, it does not worth investing because sooner or later, the price of the
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stock will drop to its real value, on the other hand.
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If the stock price is lower than what the company really worth, then it is a great investment
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since the stock price sooner or later will rise to its real value.
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I hope you guys have enjoyed this video, make sure you give this video a thumbs up and leave
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Thanks for watching and until next time.