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On June 15, China and India's military troops clashed in hand-to-hand combat
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along a disputed border in the Himalayan mountains, resulting in deaths from both sides.
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This was the deadliest confrontation between India and China along that border in 45 years,
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marking a dangerous escalation between the two nuclear powers.
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In the 1950s, a term was used to describe the relationship between India and China:
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“Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai”, which means “India and China are brothers.”
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However, that was the exception rather than the norm,
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with a deep-seated mistrust on both sides still felt today.
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Two years after India's independence in 1947, the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949.
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Despite attempts to establish a cordial relationship, such as the India-China Friendship Association,
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cracks were already appearing in their bilateral relations.
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For one, China never accepted a border drafted by the British in 1914 demarcating the frontier
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between Tibet and British India, also known as the McMahon line.
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The ambiguity of the 550-mile line, which India recognizes as its official legal border,
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soon became a source of tension between the two Asian neighbors.
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It culminated in the Sino-Indian war in 1962.
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The battle lasted a month and China made inroads past the McMahon line
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while India suffered heavy casualties.
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Over the next few years, India managed to recover lost ground amid occasional clashes
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between the two countries, including one in 1975, which brought 45 years of uneasy peace at the border.
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Despite efforts for détente in the following years between the political leadership of
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both countries, the issue remained unresolved.
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Between 1993 and 2005, India and China signed a series of border agreements,
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including a 1996 agreement prohibiting the use of firearms in the volatile area.
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So what are both sides fighting over exactly, and what is the significance?
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The McMahon Line forms a part of the long border between China and India, which extends
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for more than 3,400 km in the mountainous region of the Himalayas.
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This frontier is referred to as the Line of Actual Control, or the LAC, which includes
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landmarks such as the Pangong lake and the Galwan Valley.
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There are no official records or real-life markings delineating the actual LAC
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resulting in grey zones between the Chinese and Indian patrols.
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The LAC fringes mountains, valleys and plateaus, making the flow of goods and activities laborious.
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As a result, India has been upgrading its roads and military infrastructure
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for over a decade, which will allow the rapid deployment of its forces.
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Galwan river, where the latest fatal confrontation occurred, has a vantage point of a road being
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built by India, which makes it a strategic and significant location.
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China has also been building its own infrastructure and military outposts along the LAC,
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including a highway connecting China's sensitive regions of Xinjiang and Tibet.
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The country also has more infrastructure projects west of the LAC, which connects China to Pakistan
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as part of its Belt and Road initiative, adding to India's wariness.
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But the tension between India and China goes beyond their land borders.
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And given their economic might, this will have broader implications for the region
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and the rest of the world too.
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The two countries make up about 36% of the world's population.
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China has the second largest economy in the world with a GDP of more than $14 trillion
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while India takes the fifth spot with $2.9 trillion.
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As their economies grow, both countries have been investing heavily in their military arsenals.
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In 2020, China allocated more than $178 billion for defense, although many analysts think
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that the actual figure is much higher.
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Meanwhile, India's defense budget stands at around $73 billion.
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The Stockholm International Peace Research estimates that
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China has 320 nuclear warheads, while India has 150.
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Even before the latest clash, geopolitical tensions between the two juggernauts
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have been on the rise of late.
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India's neighbors — Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal — have forged closer ties to China
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in the recent years under its Belt and Road initiative.
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To counter the rise of China, India has sought closer ties with strategic players such as
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the United States, Russia, Japan and Australia.
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What you will see, I think, is that India is trying to find its own way to put pressure on China.
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India will be trying to improve its relationships with Australia, with Japan, with Vietnam,
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with United Kingdom, with all the countries who are worried about China
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in order to give itself a little bit of leverage.
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The pandemic has taken a toll on the economies of both countries.
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This means that the dynamics between Beijing and New Delhi have shifted too.
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As companies evaluate their supply chains in the wake of the pandemic and
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the trade war between the U.S. and China, India has been positioning itself
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to lure more foreign investment.
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In recent years, Prime Minister Modi's office has pushed for India to be self-reliant, and
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has imposed curbs on Chinese imports and investment.
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The latest clash has also led to a boycott of Chinese companies in India, including a
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ban of nearly 60 Chinese apps such as TikTok and WeChat, while Chinese firms
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Huawei and ZTE may be excluded from the rollout of India's 5G network.
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Indian startups – which have been courting Chinese funding in recent years – are also
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finding themselves in a quandary.
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Indian food delivery unicorn Zomato raised $150 million from China's Alibaba group
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in January 2020, while its competitor Swiggy is backed by Tencent and Meituan-Dianping.
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You're talking about a world in which China is going to have curtailed economic relations
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with the world's leading superpower, the United States, and the world's most important
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emerging market, that is India.
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So I think you're going to have a very different economic picture as the US-India relationship
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coheres around this problem, and every corporate officer and institutional investor needs to
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be prepared for a world in which you have a confrontation against China
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by two of the most important democracies in the world.
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While it is unlikely that the border clash will lead to a full-blown military conflict
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between India and China, the saber-rattling hasn't ceased.
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The confrontation may just widen their geopolitical rivalry on other fronts
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in an increasingly divisive world.
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So what are your thoughts on the relationship between India and China?
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Do share with us. Thanks for watching.
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In the meantime, stay safe.