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Chris Anderson: I get now to introduce
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one of the most powerful women in the world.
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I mean, if we are to escape from the mess that we're in right now,
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she is going to play a major part in helping us do that.
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She's the head of the International Monetary Fund,
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a delight to welcome here Kristalina Georgieva.
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Kristalina, welcome.
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Kristalina Georgieva: Great to be with you, Chris.
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Thank you for having me.
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CA: So you just took on this role late last year,
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and within four months, boom, COVID arrives.
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That is one heck of an introduction to a new job.
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How are you doing?
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KG: Well, I find strength in action.
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And at the Fund,
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we have been, from day one on this crisis,
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leaning forward with everything we have
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to provide lifelines to countries,
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and that means to people and businesses.
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Already, we have received over 90 requests
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and we have offered, to 56 countries,
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critical financial packages.
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CA: You've described this pandemic as a crisis like no other.
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In what way a crisis like no other?
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KG: Truly like no other.
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First, never before
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we will inflict on the economy consciously so much pain
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to fight a virus and save lives.
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We are asking businesses not to produce
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and consumers not to go out and consume.
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At the Fund, we labeled this "the Great Lockdown."
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Second,
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never before
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there would be such a rapid change of fortunes
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practically for everybody around the world.
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In January, I was in Davos,
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talking about "anemic growth," growth of three percent.
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In April, during our spring meetings, it was already minus three percent.
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In January,
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we predicted 160 countries to have positive income per capita growth.
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Now it is 170 countries with negative income per capita growth.
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Now this, we call "the Great Reversal."
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Very painful.
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And three, uncertainty.
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We always live with uncertainty, Chris,
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but this time,
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it is the uncertainty of a novel coronavirus
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that policymakers have to integrate.
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We at the Fund combine epidemiological projections
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with our traditional macroeconomic modeling
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to see through that uncertainty.
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I must add to this,
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I very much hope that when we go on the other side in the recovery,
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we can use a new term and call it "the Great Transformation."
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Make the world a better place.
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CA: Well, I'll be excited to come on to that in a bit.
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But in this moment of responding to the crisis,
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the main tool that seems to have been executed,
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at least by the rich countries,
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has been this massive economic stimulus,
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to the tune of trillions of dollars.
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Is that a wise response?
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KG: It is a necessity.
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And you don't hear the Fund often telling countries,
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"Please, spend.
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Spend as much as you can."
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And that is what we do now.
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We do add to that,
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"And keep the receipts.
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Don't lose accountability to the citizens, to the tax payers."
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The reason financial injection is necessary,
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these fiscal measures of almost nine trillion dollars are necessary,
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is because when the economy is standing still,
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unless there is help,
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unless there is monetary policy stimulus,
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firms are going to go massively bankrupt,
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people would be unemployed,
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the economy would be scarred.
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When we go to the other side,
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this scarring is going to make the recovery much more difficult.
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So that is a wise thing to do,
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and it helps the fact that central banks in major economies
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have been acting in a synchronized manner
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and that fiscal stimulus came really, really fast.
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This is how we see people being able to go through this
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very, very tough time.
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CA: But how far can it go?
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Because it's been described, in a sense, as "printing money" --
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governments are issuing more and more bonds
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that have to paid back at some point.
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There's this term, in economics, of the Minsky moment,
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where things can go very well for a while,
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as everyone believes that, you know,
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that the train can keep running,
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the cycle can keep turning,
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you know, that governments have all this money.
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At some point, though, doesn't that break down?
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Do you worry that we may be nearing a Minsky moment,
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where, like Michael in Mary Poppins
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grabs his tuppence and starts a run on the bank.
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Is there stress in the international financial system now
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that concerns you,
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that makes you feel that we may be running out of headroom?
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KG: Of course, this cannot go on forever.
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I, for one, have trust in our scientists,
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I think we will see breakthroughs,
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and we will see also people in businesses
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getting accustomed to social distancing,
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to micromeasures that protect from spreading the disease.
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We have seen very massive injection in health systems,
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so hospitals can actually treat people that are coming for help.
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Obviously, if it is to go for a very long time,
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we would be worried.
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For now,
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what we are projecting
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is that there would be a gradual reopening --
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we see it already happening in a number of countries.
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And we project for next year, 2021,
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a partial recovery.
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Not a full recovery, unfortunately,
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but coming to a better place.
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Now, what helps us
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is something that I don't particularly love,
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but I see it as a positive feature --
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very low interest rates,
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in some cases, negative --
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that allows this injection of fiscal measures and liquidity
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to be sustained over a number of years.
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And for now, we do not see on the horizon
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any return to increase in interest rates.
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So low for longer,
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and that is, in that environment, a helpful feature.
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CA: I mean, the financial crisis of 2008
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came perilously close to breaking the entire financial system --
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arguably, it did that.
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By most people's calculation,
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this is a far worse impact to the economy overall.
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Did the world learn something from 2008
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that has helped us so far be resilient this time?
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KG: What the world learned is that the financial system
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has to be tested
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and then strengthened to withstand shocks.
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And that is helping us tremendously today.
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The banking system is resilient,
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and even in the nonbanking financial institutions,
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there is more attention paid
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to how far can you go without running into trouble.
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I would say,
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if you look around the world,
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the most important lesson then was "build resilience to shocks."
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Those who have done it cope now better.
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And those who have not done it are in a much tougher spot.
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And actually, for the Fund,
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what we are praying
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is that we will come out of this crisis with this lesson about resilience
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being spread beyond the banking system,
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so we actually have this crisis-management mindset
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for a world that is inevitably going to be more shock-prone,
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because of climate
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and also because of the sheer density of economic and social life on our planet.
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CA: In your role,
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you're paying special attention to the situation in developing countries.
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And it does seem that they're facing a really terrible situation right now.
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Many of them have significant debt denominated in dollars.
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In the current crisis,
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their currencies are depreciating against the dollar,
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making it nigh impossible for them to execute the kind of injection,
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stimulus injections,
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that the rich countries are doing
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and seems to be the only way out.
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So that seems like a really dangerous cycle.
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Is there any way to break that cycle?
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KG: Well, let me first separate
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countries that have built strong fundamentals.
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And now in this crisis,
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as we are receiving incoming data,
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not very many, but there are still some positive surprises,
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and they come from countries that have built stronger buffers,
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stronger fundamentals,
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have been more disciplined during good times.
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But indeed, we do see
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quite a number of emerging markets, developing countries,
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faced with multiple pressures.
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They had the hit from the coronavirus,
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many of them with weak health systems.
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Then, they have the high level of indebtedness,
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from before the crisis,
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which creates a much more difficult environment for them.
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Then, many of them are commodity exporters.
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Commodity prices, oil price,
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they went down very dramatically,
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that hits them again.
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Many rely on remittances.
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Remittances shrunk some 20 to 30 percent.
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And then you have a number of countries that are highly dependent on tourism.
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Tourism is the hardest hit sector, or one of the hardest hit.
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So, very tough for these countries,
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but this is why institutions like mine have been wisely created.
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The IMF, the World Bank, the regional development banks,
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we work very closely together in this crisis.
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The IMF, fortunately,
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that was one of the lessons from the 2008-2009 crisis --
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make sure that in the center of the financial safety net is an IMF
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with financial strength.
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We have four times more money to lend today
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than we had then.
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From 250 billion to one trillion dollars.
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And of course,
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we are deploying these funds
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exactly for the countries that need us the most.
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And we did one more thing.
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With David Malpass, the president of the World Bank,
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we called for a debt moratorium for the poorest countries
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to their official bilateral creditors.
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And people tend to say, "Oh, we don't work together,
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it's not good enough."
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But here is an area where we made this call in late March,
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and in mid-April,
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the G20 agreed on this moratorium.
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Amazing, we had the Paris Club, China,
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the Gulf countries,
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all agreeing that we should not suffocate the poorest countries
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by asking them to pay their debts
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when their economies are standing still.
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CA: Is it possible that some developing countries
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are overdoing the lockdown policy?
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I mean, if large numbers of your citizens are already struggling to stay alive,
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isn't it almost like a death sentence to order them not to leave their homes?
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KG: Well, Chris, one of the most heartbreaking conversations I would have
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is with leaders of countries where they have to stare in the face
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a choice of people dying from the virus
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or dying from hunger.
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And it is a very dramatic situation for them.
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Where you have a very large part of your economy
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being informal,
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where people live hand-to-mouth every day,
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the lockdowns we have in advanced economies
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are not quite applicable,
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but even there,
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countries are doing really well in social distancing
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to the extent it is possible.
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Many of the countries in Africa
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were very early to step up preventive measures.
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Why?
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They learned from the Ebola, they learned from prior crises
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that hygiene,
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taking any measure you can really helps.
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So again, I cannot stress enough
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how important is solidarity with these countries.
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How important it is for my institution to be there for them in a timely manner.
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And we do it.
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CA: Whitney.
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Whitney Pennington Rogers: Hi there, thank you,