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October 2009 was the worst month of the worst year of the Great Recession.
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One out of every ten Americans was out of work.
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It was bad.
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But not as bad as the worst year of the Great Depression, when the unemployment rate was one in four.
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Few Americans alive today have ever seen that many people out of work.
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Until now.
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Coronavirus outbreaks at meatpacking plants, forcing many to close.
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Ford, General Motors, and Fiat Chrysler, all temporarily closing U.S. plants because of the coronavirus.
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Parking lots, bare.
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Retail stores, corporate offices all closed.
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By the end of April 2020, 30 million Americans had filed unemployment claims.
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Economists estimated that the U.S. unemployment rate was about 13 percent.
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The highest since the Great Depression.
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But in some other countries, like the U.K., for instance, it's a totally different story.
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Factories, restaurants... all that stuff is closed.
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But this?
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This isn't happening.
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In the U.S., lawmakers have assumed that all these closed factories, shops, and restaurants have one inevitable outcome—mass unemployment.
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But what if that's wrong?
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What if millions of people didn't have to lose their jobs?
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What if it didn't have to be this way?
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For most of U.S. history, if you were laid off, you didn't have a lot of options.
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Churches and charities did what they could, but for the most part, you were on your own.
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That changed during the Great Depression.
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With help from the federal government, states began to hold back a share of every worker's paycheck.
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That money went into a fund that workers could tap into if they got laid off.
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Workers in every state of the union are now protected if they are temporarily laid off or lose their jobs.
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The system worked pretty well, as long as too many people didn't lose their job all at once.
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Our unemployment insurance system is well-suited towards a very mild recession, where there's not a lot of stress put on the system.
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But that is definitely not what happened during the coronavirus lockdowns.
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You can think of the economy as a web of connections.
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During normal times, every day, billions of dollars change hands across these connections, between different companies and industries.
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Airlines pay oil companies for jet fuel.
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Those oil companies pay computer engineers to make software that helps them find new reserves.
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And those software companies pay ad agencies to make commercials for them.
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Then they pay to put those ads in front of things you like to watch.
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And a tiny portion of that money helps pay for us to make videos.
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We spend some of that money on, say, plane tickets for reporting trips, and the whole cycle repeats.
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During normal times, these connections are what allow businesses to pay their employees.
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If some connections break, and a business lays off workers, unemployment insurance is there to help them get by until those connections reform and businesses are ready to hire again.
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But when the lockdowns started and businesses closed down, lots of those connections broke away entirely.
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Businesses laid off millions of workers in just a few weeks, faster than at any time in U.S. history.
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In response, congress has passed several bills, aimed at helping states get unemployment benefits to more people, more quickly.
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But even if that helps in the short term, it might not be enough down the road.
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Because once the lockdowns are over, many of those businesses simply won't be there anymore.
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The businesses that I think will be particularly hard-hit will be small and medium-sized businesses who just don't have enough in reserve.
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Even if they lay off employees, businesses still have to pay rent.
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Plus insurance, utilities, and other business costs.
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But there's no money coming in.
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Without relief, those businesses are gonna have no choice but to shutter.
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Once the lockdown is lifted, and it's safe to work again, a lot of businesses will be gone.
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And there will be way fewer jobs to come back to.
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Lots of unemployed people will likely stay unemployed.
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Which will draw the economic crisis out even further.
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But things don't have to turn out that way.
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Just like in the U.S., most of the U.K. is on lockdown.
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Many of those connections between businesses have fallen off.
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But instead of waiting for workers to get laid off, the government in the U.K. is doing something different.
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The way that they're going about it is saying to companies, "We will pay you to pay your employees."
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Workers get paid 80 percent of their previous salary and businesses get help covering rent and other costs.
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Denmark and the Netherlands have put similar systems in place.
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In all of these countries, government support has put the economy on pause to keep it from falling apart later.
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Everything is still there; everything is connected, people still have those jobs.
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In the U.S., congress did set aside a chunk of money for grants and loans to small businesses in the hopes that they would keep their workers on payroll.
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But to get that money, business owners had to apply through commercial banks like Chase and Bank of America.
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That extra step, combined with the onslaught of applications, resulted in massive delays.
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By the time many small businesses got approval, the fund was already empty.
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We missed a big wave, we've already done a lot of damage, but if we got something in place tomorrow, that could avert more layoffs.
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When the U.S. first set up unemployment insurance during the Great Depression, that idea didn't come out of thin air.
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Policymakers studied similar systems in England and Germany, and then adapted them.
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This pandemic transcends national borders.
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The solutions should, too.