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Back when I was still learning Japanese, I used to turn on the news at night
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so I could try to up my language comprehension skills.
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After work, I'd turn on the tv, I'd sit down with my dinner and I'd just try to parse out
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whatever the newscaster was saying.
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One night, after the weather and the perp walks and the general BS, they brought on an interview
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that I actually understood.
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For the first time, I understood a full Japanese conversation.
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Or, at the very least, a single back and forth.
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The interviewer was a government minister and the newscaster turned to him and said:
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“With our population declining, and our economy stagnant we really only have two choices.
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We can either build better robots or we can let in immigrants.”
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And they turned to each other and laughed.
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The minister repeated the word back to him.
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Immigrants.
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And they laughed.
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Today's story is about Japan, and if I'm being honest, it's also about America.
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But more than that, it's about those damn immigrants.
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To the anti-immigration crowd, Japan is often treated as the example country.
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As the place where they are doing it right.
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Which to me is kind of funny.
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Because it essentially means that they're praising their ideological enemies,
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and it's not even actually true.
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But in that misunderstanding, I think we can see a highlighting of one of the biggest problems
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in politics around the world today.
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Which is that identity is no longer supported by its natural, economic backing.
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People are so quick online to send an angry tweet that I don't think they are really looking at
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what they are saying.
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And it's going to blow up in all of our faces.
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So to explain, I want to focus on Japan.
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Let's start with the good.
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Japan is an economic miracle.
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And not just for the successes of its post-war boom, but also the successes of its bust.
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Over the past 27 years, the Japanese economy has only grown at less than a 1% rate annually.
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That's less than a 1/3rd that of the United States.
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That's the lowest of any modern industrialized nation.
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And yet, Japanese workers haven't fallen behind.
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They've made just as much money as their American counterparts,
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and if you exclude the top ten percent of earners, they've overtaken them.
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When presented in the form of total assets, they're actually nearly double.
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96,000 to 50.
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And it isn't just a lack of frivolous spending.
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Despite being hyper-capitalist on paper, you wouldn't be far off to call Japan socialist.
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After all, what is socialism if not what they've achieved here?
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They divide their wealth incredibly well.
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Better than virtually any other country on the planet.
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Especially countries this size.
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They have a near one-party state and yet, it still invests back into the economy
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to the point that their unemployment rate remains below 2%.
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The dream of any capitalist nation.
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They've got an incredibly successful form of universal healthcare, one which genuinely concerns itself
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with the long-term health of its citizens, and in turn they're among
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the longest lived people on the planet.
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Income inequality is among the lowest on earth.
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Japan has less than a third the poverty rate of the United States,
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and also a third of its uber-wealthy.
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In this being case defined as having assets under ten thousand and over a million, respectively.
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Infant mortality, literacy rates, homelessness, crime rates, and so much more
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are the envy of the world.
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The only problem is, without growth, all of this is unsustainable.
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And they know it.
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So let's look at the bad.
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To maintain their system, Japan has seen an eye-watering 236% debt-to-GDP ratio.
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And while much of the money has been taken out in publicly held yen, and is therefore more easily managed
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than that of the foreign held debt, it will still be their own undoing.
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The amount of interest paid per year is staggering, and yet another cause of their economic stagnation.
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To put it simply, they need more workers.
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They need more jobs.
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And they need more wealth.
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People cannot get an annualized salary increase if there's no money to increase it with.
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You can't employ 98% of your workers if you don't have the money to pay them.
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So, immigrants.
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But before I say more about Japan, I want to take a little swipe at the US.
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Because they're the ones that I find to be spreading the most misinformation
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about the immigration issue right now.
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I want to split the concept into three categories, intentional immigrants, illegal immigrants, and refugees.
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Because they're all different, and have entirely different effects on the economy.
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And in turn, from a purely economic standpoint, the people supporting them should be rather
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easy to delineate.
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But they aren't.
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Let's say you're a socialist.
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By which I mean that you believe workers in your society should be taken care of first and foremost.
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You believe that unemployment should be low, union should be strong, and wealth should be
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relatively equally divided.
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Ok.
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Well, then there is one group that you should support.
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Intentional immigrants.
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Statistically, at least in the West, an intentional immigrant will cause more wealth
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than a locally born person.
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They have a higher rate of entrepreneurship, and create more jobs than they fill in.
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In turn, they are a great source of tax revenue.
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They have, to put it simply, a positive effect on the total growth rate, unemployment
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and overall worker pay.
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The other two, however, not so much.
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At best, their positive effect is questionable, and for it to work to the local people's benefit
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entirely depends on how strong the system's desire is to spread that wealth.
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Much like shipping jobs overseas.
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It can work, but it's a much harder sell with many more pitfalls and an easier target for animosity.
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Certainly, they cause growth, but growth to what end?
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In effect, it becomes a moralistic choice.
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Almost an ideological one.
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However, if you're an ardent capitalist, the opposite tends to be true.
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Illegal immigration and refugees are good.
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They're desirable.
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You want them just as much, if not more, than the others.
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You want completely open borders.
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Again, talking economically.
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Because the more workers you have vying for a job,
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the lower the value of the individual worker applying for it.
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They raise the GDP because they work for less, which means more profit, which means more capital,
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and in turn while the average goes up as a whole, the individual worker gets less per year.
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The more people you can add to your system, especially people who are legally incapable
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of taking advantage of the national excesses, the better.
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Scabs ruin unions, so you'd have to be a pretty dumb rightist to be opposed to more scabs.
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But in America, as elsewhere in the West, the political parties have found a way
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to completely disassociate these economic realities from their respective brands.
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Obama tried incredibly hard to curb illegal immigration.
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He just did it quietly.
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Because his voters would have disagreed.
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Yet conversely, Trump employs thousands of illegal immigrants, only stopping when he's caught.
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He obviously doesn't want them to go anyway.
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Anyone studying the issue will tell you a wall won't work
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when nearly three quarters of all illegal immigrants come in by plane.
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Let alone all its other obvious faults.
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It's just performative art for the angry.
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People who would shoot themselves in the foot to pretend that screaming is the same as taking action.
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That xenophobia is the same as economic concern.
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But it's not like they can admit that they're wrong.
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There are two political parties, and most people love having a team to back.
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So they present it as culture.
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The reason that we can't have immigrants is because they'll change our culture.
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Because they'll never fit into our system that was built on immigration.
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So they point to Japan, a system not built on immigration.
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And they pretend that they can be the same.
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Look at how well they've done in the face of this new world order, they very unironically say out loud.
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It's just, it's not true.
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More and more every year, they've become accustomed to increased immigration.
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And not surprisingly, it was their furthest right-wing government in decades
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who opened their door the widest it's ever been.
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As their system comes closer and closer to collapse, they've recognized the bind they're in.
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With their population having peaked in 2008, and likely shrinking a full percent annually from here on out,
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they know they need workers.
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And just like all nations in their position, immigration is how they're going to get them.
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Yet just like everywhere, opposition remains.
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And much of it is xenophobic.
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They call it a loss of culture, which it is, that needs to be stated,
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but that's definitely not the core issue here.
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Almost everything changes the culture.
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Wealth changed the culture.
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Hell, look at the first major change Japan made when it tried to raise the growth rate.
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They inspired women to work.
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They tapped into that unused fifty percent.
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And that has caused major, fundamental changes to their culture.
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If the real issue was simply that they were trying to stay the same,
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well, they definitely wouldn't have done that.
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The reality is that culture is always changing, and there are ways to mitigate those negative effects.
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If a nation treats immigrants with acceptance and integration, then acceptance and integration work.
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There's a mountain of evidence to show that when a nation treats immigrants as normal,
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employable members of society, they integrate within a single generation.
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It doesn't matter where they are from.
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And although they're countless, the only other example I'll give here is from my own country.
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The biggest riot in Toronto's history was anti-Greek.
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Virtually everything you hear today about Muslims they said about Greeks a hundred years ago.
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It got so bad that mobs resorted to open violence in the streets.
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But nobody in the city would ever imagine that their descendants are a danger today.
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Because of course, they integrated.
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That's how it works.
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Yet even on top of all of that.
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On top of the economy and culture and xenophobia and whatever else the anti-immigration crowd
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is throwing at the wall to see what sticks, there's always the elephant in the room.
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If your population is declining, you're losing power.
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Not just economic, but militarily.
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In a world where nations sit with billions of citizens, a people of Japan's size cannot stop growing.
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They have to try to meet their neighbours as they are.
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Who will they use to fight the upcoming wars?
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Who will rattle their sabres when that foreign navy comes to their harbours?
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How do they protect themselves if they have nobody to stand up and yell Banzai?
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It's a harsh question, but one every nation must think about.
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And they do think about it.
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Service age men and women are a requirement of every society.
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Not just for the labour market, but as warm fodder for the cannons.
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Even if those cannons never actually fire.
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And without immigration, that's simply not an option.
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That's why they're letting them in.
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That's why we're letting them in.
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Immigration is an incredibly touchy topic, with much more complexity
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than two diametric poles of yay and nay could ever summarize.
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I personally am truly supportive of the low-income worker.
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I believe they're the ones who need to be taken care of the most.
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The house that's on fire should get the water.
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In that respect, I often find myself aligning with somewhat protectionist, unionist policies.
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But I'm also aware that those policies cannot be sustained without growth.
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The world is more complicated than ideology, and everything has a balance.
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My family are immigrants.
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My wife is an immigrant.
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And my country is better for us being in it.
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But there has to be a limit.
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An understanding.
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A recognition that the benefits have to be weighed against the reality of the situation.
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Because after all, what values do we hold?
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Who are we here to protect?
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What is an economy for?
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There are no right answers to these questions.
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So does Japan have the perfect nation?
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Well, of course not.
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There is no perfect nation.
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But they do have a great nation.
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Because they've tried incredibly hard to protect their children, their workers and their culture.
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They just made one fatal mistake.
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When that newscaster asked that question all those years ago, they laughed.
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They thought that if they shut their eyes hard enough, they'd never have to see reality.
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And even though it wasn't a joke, they laughed.
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This is Rare Earth.