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Welcome to Charts that Count.
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There are no upsides to a global health crisis.
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But the coronavirus, if nothing else,
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has made debt cheaper to bear, throwing
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a lifeline to borrowers at a time
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of incredible financial stress.
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Acute worries about future growth,
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abetted by an aggressive programme of bond buying
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by the US Federal Reserve, has driven the yield on the US
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10-year Treasury down to just over half a per cent.
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Other forms of debt caught in the same gravitational field
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are getting cheaper too.
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But who benefits?
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Yes, governments and companies can borrow more cheaply.
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But what about human beings?
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Perhaps the most important way that lower rates
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helps consumers and families is through lower-priced mortgages.
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And indeed, the average rate on the US 30-year fixed rate
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mortgage has fallen to 3.5 per cent, by historical standards
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a very cheap mortgage.
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One that any homeowner could brag
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about at a backyard barbecue, if we're ever
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going to have those again.
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Look, however, at that little spike in mortgage rates just
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after the Covid crisis began.
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Investors, spooked by the idea that homeowners
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would default on their mortgages,
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lost their appetite for mortgage debt.
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That left mortgage lenders with no place
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to sell newly originated mortgages to.
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Mortgage prices spiked and the market
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clogged, prompting the Fed to step in and buy
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mortgage bonds directly.
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That seemed to work, bringing mortgage prices down.
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But let's look closer.
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This last chart shows the difference
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between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury.
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This spread, as it is known, usually
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hovers at around 1.5 to 2 percentage points.
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This week, it stands at 3 per cent.
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In other words, mortgages are not cheap, not cheap at all
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given where government debt is trading.
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If the Fed wants consumers to get
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the full benefit of low interest rates,
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it still has more work to do.