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  • So of course, this is a projection, and it's a projection based on using very much what's happened in Italy and then looking at all the models on DSO as you saw on that slide, that was our real number, that 300,000.

  • And we think that that is the range.

  • We really believe in hope every day that we can do a lot better than that because that's not assuming 100% of every American does everything that they're supposed to be doing.

  • But I think that's possible over the next two weeks is the next two weeks.

  • You're gonna be very painful as the bulk of our gonna happen over the next.

  • You have an upslope so as mortality, the fatalities to this disease will increase, and then it will come back down and I will come back down slower than the rate at which it went up.

  • And so that's that is really the issue, how how much we can push the mortality down.

  • So our hope is to get that down for a sw far as we possibly can.

  • The modeling that Dr Berg showed predicts that number that you saw we don't accept that number, that that's what's gonna be We're gonna be doing everything we can to get it even significantly below that.

  • So, you know, I don't want it to be a mixed message.

  • This is the thing that we need to anticipate.

  • But that doesn't mean that that's what we're going to accept.

  • We want to do much, much better than that has a curve.

  • It goes much further in time, so we would have death and cases for much longer.

  • I mean, we do expect a number two, so that's a generic.

  • I'm sorry I didn't go back to the slides and put up slide to That's okay.

  • So what I showed you was a generic picture of what happens in an epidemic when you mitigate.

  • So no mitigation mitigate.

  • This is based on the experience around the globe with this particular virus, and so it does have a tail.

  • But the peak you can see by this projection and this is the I H M E data.

  • The peak is over the next two weeks and that side, and this is tracking mortality.

  • So the number of fatalities from this virus and so that's the part that we think we can still blunt through the superb medical care that every client is receiving, but also even more stringent people following the guidelines.

  • I can't see the small characters, but are we seeing this until June?

  • I can't really think this is June, so it would still see problems and death in June rejection project.

  • So I'm just getting back to what I said about the step boys thing.

  • Deaths always lag, so you will be seeing deaths at a time when as an epidemic with doing really, really well, because the deaths will lag.

So of course, this is a projection, and it's a projection based on using very much what's happened in Italy and then looking at all the models on DSO as you saw on that slide, that was our real number, that 300,000.

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B1 ABCNews projection mortality june mitigate generic

America may see 100,000 to 200,000 COVID-19 deaths: White House

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    林宜悉 posted on 2020/04/04
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