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  • In 2015, I started noticing people saying, globalization is dead.

  • I saw it in the headlines.

  • It started coming up in conversation with business leaders, and I even read an article on it at the epicenter of globalization devils.

  • So why were so many people talking about the death of globalization?

  • They're picking on a radical shift in the geopolitics.

  • With the growth of nationalism between 2010 and 2017 countries notified more than twice the number of anti trade measures.

  • As portrayed, protectionism was on the rise, and multilateral agency, like the World Trade Organization, seem to weakening.

  • At the same time, global trade was also slowing down.

  • In the 150 years or so, global trade as a percentage of global GDP grew more than five times, from around 10% more than 50% by the year 2010.

  • But since then it has battered Freed seems to have seized to be a global GDP multiplier, and this led to the narrative that globalization is declining or even dead.

  • Now.

  • If globalization was indeed declining or dead, then you would expect that the global growth of companies to be slowing down.

  • Now I've been researching and writing over globalization for more than a decade now, and I know I know that companies are globalizing faster than ever before.

  • Fast is the history, and we saw this in our own home.

  • Ah, son Demon loves to play video games.

  • I remember back in 2006 the leader in games Nintendo launched their revolutionary we console and the man wanted it and kept on asking me, Dad, can you get it?

  • And I could not for two years, because it took that long for Nintendo to enter India.

  • And you'd really where we live with this new product.

  • Just one decade later, in 2016 a small company this time called Niantic they launch their evolutionary game.

  • It was called Pokemon Go and of course you want to play, but all you have to do this time was downloaded and start playing.

  • So Nintendo obviously prioritized global customers based on their geographic location and the cost and ease of entering that market.

  • Whereas for Niantic, every global customer was a priority customer because technology enable them to access these customers simultaneously and near instantaneously.

  • Niantic built a $1,000,000,000 global business from customers in 127 countries in just seven months.

  • Now that is fast by any any standards under such remarkable compete is Netflix.

  • In 2010 they were an American company with the revenues around $2 billion.

  • Then they started globalizing, and in the eight years since then, they have grown more than five times the revenue and gone from one country to 1 90 countries.

  • Now I know that me and take a Netflix are not the traditional global company.

  • The reason I'm using them as examples is because they are the cutting edge of this powerful force or digital technologies on global data.

  • That, along with the equally powerful force of the new geopolitics, is leading to the emergence off a radical new mortal of globalization.

  • Let's understand what this means.

  • We all know that technology is transforming our daily lives, is also transforming globalization.

  • Old globalization was all about shipping goods physically across the globe.

  • The new globalization is increasingly about Dietrich Technologies, especially global data and completes, like Netflix, know that in today's New World, it is not about where you are because thought about shipping.

  • They're all DVDs to the castle's across the world.

  • It is increasingly about who you are in terms of what you watch, because today the customer can download wherever he is.

  • He can download the digital content, which he wants to watch, and based on what he watches, where we maybe he gets this or he or she gets us exactly the same recommendation as others like them.

  • So technology is enabling companies like Netflix to completely redefine the global customer away from the geographic location and the country boundaries.

  • Now let's talk about sneakers.

  • This is an industry that epitomizes or globalization.

  • If I wanted to buy a pair of running shoes, I would go to the nearest retail outlet and select from all the mortals on display, knowing full well that the designs there would have been finalized months, if not a year ago.

  • And the shoe has been manufactured in a plant in China or one the Asian countries, because issued today, produces nearly 85% of the world shoes.

  • It just takes that long for the Shoot Cos.

  • One that designed the finalized to get these manufactured in the global plants and then shipped out on the world to the global supply chain spanning, continents off towards and ports and ships and warehouses and trucks.

  • What today?

  • Global data, Rue barks and three D printing is radically changing this.

  • The customer can go online and look up the latest designs, and he wants them not next year.

  • He wants them next week.

  • So added, as has set up the first speed factory in Germany and in the U.

  • S.

  • These are fully automated, highly flexible plants designed to produce the latest global designs for the local customers.

  • The vision is that the custom, I should be able to go online designer's own shoes and these automated many plants with three D printer customers designs and perhaps a drone will pick it up and ship it home.

  • And all in days, the new globalization is increasingly about data crossing borders, about personalization, about local production and speed.

  • And just think about this.

  • Come to say I did, as in, the old model would have to predict what designs would sell months later, what volumes cell in different parts of the world and then get the manufactured and shipped around the globe.

  • The new model companies will increasingly produce, or the customer designs in these local automated plants and in the volumes of the customer wants.

  • Global leaders like Siemens and many others are leveraging this model tow build multibillion dollar high growth global businesses.

  • Collecting and analysing data from all the plants, recoup prints that they have around the world and creating new service is for their global customers.

  • In fact, some experts have estimated that the total value generated from this cross border data flow could be as high as $20 trillion by the year 2025 which is more than the total goods that is exported in the world today.

  • Not to me, that is accelerating globalisation, but this is one part of the story.

  • The other part of story has been shaped by the new geopolitics, all geopolitics for decades.

  • Lt's all about multilateralism.

  • Countries came together and negotiated agreements, believing that collaboration was the best way to grow global trade and the agreed rules were common to all, and they were stable.

  • The world seems very different today.

  • There is more economic competition between countries, nationalism is growing and each country wants to maximize their own benefits first.

  • So you have unilateral palace being announced by the U s and you're more countries bilaterally negotiating and cutting these with each other.

  • So as a result, the rules are becoming more heterogeneous and they're becoming more mobile A tile.

  • So you have these global companies they have to deal with customers on a global level.

  • But they have to deal with all these policy changes that glittery changes and politics on a local country by country level and the winning cos they're managing this by giving Maur decision right s'more ah, authorities to the local team so that they can respond quickly and effectively toe all this kind of sudden policy changes at the local level which are distant headquarters 1000 kilometers away can never do an old globalization.

  • It was all about squeezing more and more efficiencies out off your organization.

  • His winning companies know that in the new model it is equally important to build capabilities and structures which can absorb the shocks of this bullet.

  • Thailand heterogeneous rules.

  • For example, if you have a network of highly flexible plants in all the major markets they can address, they can react to any kind of tired of changes much more effectively than if you have highly cost efficient global plants and the feeders off.

  • These companies know that focusing on the business means that they need to engage deeply with societal and government leaders as they do with the customers and analysts.

  • A new 21st century company is emerging now.

  • As I come towards the end of my current face of research on globalization, I'm lifted one thought.

  • That is a society.

  • We're becoming more nationalistic and lesson less open, more closed.

  • But as individuals were becoming more global in all that we do in our work and our lives.

  • And these two contrasting narratives is shaping the new globalization for all of us.

  • No, the relation is not dead.

  • It is accelerating, but it is radically different.

  • Thank you.

In 2015, I started noticing people saying, globalization is dead.

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Globalization isn't declining -- it's transforming | Arindam Bhattacharya | TED Institute

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    林宜悉 posted on 2020/04/04
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