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  • - Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe

  • doesn't look like this.

  • Instead it looks like this.

  • If anything kills over 10 million people,

  • in the next few decades,

  • it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus

  • rather than a war.

  • Now, part of the reason for this

  • is that we have invested a huge amount

  • in nuclear deterrents.

  • But we've actually invested very little

  • in a system to stop an epidemic.

  • We're not ready for the next epidemic.

  • The failure to prepare could allow

  • the next epidemic to be dramatically

  • more devastating than Ebola.

  • The best lessons I think on how to get prepared

  • are again what we do for war.

  • We need a Medical Reserve Corps,

  • lots of people who've got the training and background,

  • who are ready to go with the expertise.

  • And then we need to pair

  • those medical people with the military.

  • Taking advantage of the military's ability

  • to move fast through logistics and secure areas.

  • We need to do simulations.

  • Germ games not war games.

  • So that we see where the holes are.

  • Finally, we need lots of advanced R and D

  • in areas of vaccines and diagnostics.

  • There are some big breakthroughs like adeno-associated virus

  • that could work very, very quickly.

  • Now I don't have an exact budget for what this would cost,

  • but I'm quite sure it's very modest

  • compared to the potential harm.

  • The World Bank estimates

  • that if have a worldwide flu epidemic,

  • global wealth will go down by over $3 trillion,

  • and we'd have millions and millions of deaths.

  • If we start now

  • we can be ready for the next epidemic.

  • Thank you (audience applauding)

  • (logo whooshing)

  • So this is a serious problem,

  • we should be concerned.

- Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe

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B1 US epidemic invested war military audience applauding global

Bill Gates PREDICTED The Coronavirus In 2015

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    林峰生 posted on 2020/03/27
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